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U.S. Spy Agencies ‘Pessimistic’ About Trump’s War Strategy in Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: October 24, 2022)

The U.S. military and intelligence officials are at odds over the direction of the war in Afghanistan, creating a new source of friction as President Trump and his team seek a way to end the 17-year-old conflict in the country, the Wall Street Journal reported citing American officials.

Citing people familiar with a continuing classified assessment, the Wall Street Journal said that the U.S. Intelligence officials have a pessimistic view of the conflict, while military commanders are challenging that conclusion by arguing that Mr. Trump’s South Asia strategy is working.

The divisions come as the Trump administration is sending a new U.S. general to Kabul to oversee international forces carrying the strategy that has yet to produce much measurable progress in Afghanistan. 

The report said that there is broad consensus that the trajectory of the war hasn’t significantly shifted over the year that Trump’s strategy has been in effect. 

While the official military view of Afghanistan is “cautiously optimistic,” some of these people told WSJ that the intelligence view is “cautiously pessimistic.” That has led to intensive discussions about how to frame the next assessment of the war in Afghanistan that will be presented to Mr. Trump in the coming months.

Some officials overseeing the war are concerned that a negative intelligence assessment could prompt Mr. Trump to shift course and abandon a strategy he reluctantly embraced last year that sent thousands of additional American troops to Afghanistan, the report said.

According to the report, some U.S. officials believe fighting is still at a stalemate. The infusion of new American troops, increased from 8,000 to about 14,000, may have blunted Taliban momentum in some areas, but it has not decisively turned the tide in favor of the U.S. and Afghanistan, the report said citing people familiar with the ongoing analysis.

An escalation in U.S. airstrikes has failed to seriously disrupt the Taliban’s financial lifelines; and Mr. Trump’s decision to increase the number of American troops hasn’t fundamentally altered battlefield dynamics, the report said citing the current and former U.S. officials.

The WSJ report, meanwhile, said that Afghanistan’s internal political dynamics. Partisan, regional and ethnic divisions are creating fissures as the country prepares for a presidential election next year.

That cumulative evidence is fueling the pessimistic views in the intelligence community, the report said.

According to WSJ, the U.S. Military officials have argued that more intangible benchmarks, such as the successful cease-fire in June that fueled optimism, should also be considered in evaluating the war.

The June cease-fire was a sign that the Taliban leadership was serious about peace talks, military officials told WSJ; and U.S. officials have met with Taliban political leaders at least three times since Mr. Trump took office, the report said.

The summer’s optimism has given way to grim realities in Afghanistan. Mr. Mattis said the president’s approach is working. “We think there are positive reasons to stick with the strategy, and we are going to drive this to a negotiated settlement,” he said as cited by WSJ.

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Afghanistan now a ‘nexus for diplomatic endeavors’, says IEA

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(Last Updated On: April 25, 2024)

In the wake of dozens of meetings between high-ranking Islamic Emirate officials and visiting officials from foreign countries, and other diplomatic advances, the IEA said on Thursday that in the current geopolitical landscape, Kabul now “serves as a nexus for diplomatic endeavors and political deliberations pertaining to global affairs”.

In a series of posts on X, the IEA’s spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said diplomatic missions and political delegations from various nations, including Russia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, the European Union, and others, “are evident in the capital, highlighting its strategic importance in fostering Islamic cooperation”.

He said: “Recently, the honorable Minister of Transport of the Islamic Emirate, Mr. Hamidullah Akhundzada, led a significant delegation to Termez, Uzbekistan, for essential discussions aimed at enhancing bilateral relations.

“These discussions encompass a wide range of topics, from trade facilitation to security assurances, indicating a focused effort by the Islamic Emirate to strengthen and broaden its international engagements, thereby ensuring sustained development and stability.

“These initiatives, characterized by diligence and effectiveness, underscore Afghanistan’s enduring commitment to diplomatic engagement and its pivotal role in regional and global affairs,” he said.

Mujahid added that these initiatives “also emphasize the vital connection between diplomatic efforts and economic prosperity, promising favorable outcomes for Afghanistan’s socio-economic landscape.”

He pointed out that despite ongoing challenges, Afghanistan “remains steadfast in its pursuit of prosperity and resilience, defying pessimistic projections and charting a course towards political and economic renewal.”

He said: “Continued efforts are essential to fostering inclusive growth and impactful initiatives, thus advancing Afghanistan’s journey towards sustainable development and increased influence on the global stage.”

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Mullah Baradar discusses creation of railway with Kazakh deputy PM

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(Last Updated On: April 25, 2024)

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, deputy prime minister for economic affairs has met with Erik Zhumangarin, the Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, and discussed the establishment of a railway network from Kazakhstan to Pakistan through Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, the deputy PM’s office said in a statement.

During the meeting, Baradar emphasized the need to sign agreements to solve the banking problems of traders from both countries, the creation of Afghan-Kazakh joint companies, and the facilitation of visas for Afghan traders.

According to the statement, the Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan said that the Kazakh government intends to establish a joint chamber of industry and commerce and a joint trade and labor group between the two countries, and is ready to cooperate with Afghanistan in the sectors of e-governance, industry, higher education, education, health, and banking.

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Iran, Pakistan leaders raise concerns over ‘terrorist groups’ in Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: April 24, 2024)

Following a two-day official visit to Pakistan, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif issued a joint statement emphasizing the need to further expand commercial and economic cooperation and transform the common border of the two countries from a “border of peace” to “border of prosperity”.

The two leaders also strongly condemned aggressions and crimes of Israel in Gaza, and demanded an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, as well as unimpeded humanitarian access to the besieged people of Gaza.

Numerous other issues were also discussed but on the topic of Afghanistan, they jointly declared their commitment to the development of Afghanistan as a peaceful, united, independent country free from the threats of terrorism and drug trafficking.

According to the statement the two countries pointed out that the existence of terrorist organizations in Afghanistan is a serious threat to the security of the region and the world.

The two sides stressed their desire to strengthen cooperation in the field of fighting terrorism and ensuring security and creating a united front against terrorism.

They also discussed the importance of coordinating regional and international efforts to ensure security and stability in the region.

“While respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan, the two sides recognized that increasing participation of all strata of Afghans in basic decision-making will lead to the strengthening of peace and stability in this country,” the statement read.

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