World
Israel’s endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza
Israel is vowing to wipe out Hamas in a relentless onslaught on the Gaza Strip but has no obvious endgame in sight, with no clear plan for how to govern the ravaged Palestinian enclave even if it triumphs on the battlefield.
Codenamed “Operation Swords of Iron”, the military campaign will be unmatched in its ferocity and unlike anything Israel has carried out in Gaza in the past, according to eight regional and Western officials with knowledge of the conflict who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, Reuters reported.
Israel has called up a record 360,000 reservists and has been bombarding the tiny enclave non-stop following Hamas’s assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed about 1,400 people, mostly civilians.
The immediate Israeli strategy, said three regional officials familiar with discussions between the U.S. and Middle Eastern leaders, is to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, push the enclave’s people towards the Egyptian border and go after Hamas by blowing up the labyrinth of underground tunnels the group has built to conduct its operations.
Israeli officials have said that they don’t have a clear idea for what a post-war future might look like, though.
Some of U.S. President Joe Biden’s aides are concerned that while Israel may craft an effective plan to inflict lasting damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate an exit strategy, a source in Washington familiar with the matter said.
Trips to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this past week had stressed the need to focus on the post-war plan for Gaza, the source added.
Arab officials are also alarmed that Israel hasn’t set out a clear plan for the future of the enclave, ruled by Hamas since 2006 and home to 2.3 million people.
“Israel doesn’t have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after,” said one regional security source.
An Israeli invasion has yet to start, but Gaza authorities say 3,500 Palestinians have already been killed by the aerial bombardment, around a third of them children – a larger death toll than in any previous conflict between Hamas and Israel.
Biden, on a visit to Israel on Wednesday, told Israelis that justice needed to be served to Hamas, though he cautioned that after the 9/11 attacks on New York, the U.S. had made mistakes.
The “vast majority of Palestinians are not Hamas”, he said. “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.”
Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Biden’s visit would have given him a chance to press Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to think through issues such as the proportional use of force and the longer-term plans for Gaza before any invasion.
City of tunnels
Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have said they will wipe out Hamas in retribution for the Oct. 7 killings, the deadliest militant attack in Israel’s 75-year-old history.
What will follow is less defined.
“We are of course thinking and dealing with this, and this involves assessments and includes the National Security Council, the military and others about the end situation,” Israeli National Security Council director Tzachi Hanegbi told reporters on Tuesday. “We don’t know what this will be with certainty.”
“But what we do know is what there will not be,” he said, referring to Israel’s stated aim to eradicate Hamas.
This might be easier said than done.
“It’s an underground city of tunnels that make the Vietcong tunnels look like child’s play,” said the first regional source, referring to the Communist guerrilla force that defied U.S. troops in Vietnam. “They’re not going to end Hamas with tanks and firepower.”
Two regional military experts told Reuters that Hamas’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, has mobilized for an invasion, setting up anti-tank mines and booby-trapped explosive devices to ambush troops.
Israel’s coming offensive is set to be much bigger than past Gaza operations that Israeli officials had previously referred to as “mowing the grass”, degrading Hamas’s military capabilities but not eliminating it.
Israel has fought three previous conflicts with Hamas, in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, and launched limited land invasions during two of those campaigns, but unlike today, Israel’s leaders never vowed to destroy Hamas once and for all.
In those three confrontations, just under 4,000 Palestinians and fewer than 100 Israelis died.
There is less optimism in Washington, though, that Israel will be able to completely destroy Hamas and U.S. officials see little chance that Israel will want to hold on to any Gaza territory or re-occupy it, the U.S. source said.
A more likely scenario, the person said, would be for Israeli forces to kill or capture as many Hamas members as they can, blow up tunnels and rocket workshops, then after Israeli casualties mount, look for a way to declare victory and exit, Reuters reported.
Fear grows in region
The fear across the region is that the war will blow up beyond the confines of Gaza, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and its backer Iran opening major new fronts in support of Hamas.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned of a possible “preemptive” action against Israel if it carried out its invasion of Gaza. He said last weekend that Iran would not watch from the sidelines if the U.S. failed to restrain Israel.
Arab leaders have told Blinken, who has been criss-crossing the region this past week, that while they condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel, they oppose collective punishment against ordinary Palestinians, which they fear will trigger regional unrest.
Popular anger will ratchet up across the region when the body count rises, they said.
Washington has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean and is concerned that Hezbollah might join the battle from Israel’s northern border. There has been no sign, however, that the U.S. military would then move from a deterrent posture to direct involvement.
The regional sources said Washington was proposing to re-energise the Palestinian Authority (PA), which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, although there is huge doubt whether the PA or any other authority would be able to govern the coastal enclave should Hamas be driven out.
In the meantime, calls for the creation of humanitarian corridors within Gaza and escape routes for Palestinian civilians have drawn a strong reaction from Arab neighbors.
They fear an Israeli invasion will spark a new permanent mass wave of displacement, a replay of the 1948 Israeli war of independence and 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Millions of Palestinians who were forced to flee then have remained stranded as refugees in the countries that hosted them.
World
Israel, Lebanon sign initial agreement after US-mediated talks
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement allows Israeli forces to continue to occupy southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not disarm.
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington on Friday following several days of talks to secure an end to fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollahmilitants, though both sides framed the deal as an initial step, Reuters reported.
Lebanese Ambassador Nada Moawad and her Israeli counterpart Yechiel Leiter signed the trilateral document with the U.S. at the State Department in Washington, providing few details.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement allows Israeli forces to continue to occupy southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not disarm.
“Today we’ve taken the first step in what will be a difficult journey, without a doubt, but an important and an essential and a necessary one,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said before the agreement was inked.
In a later statement he said that the U.S. would facilitate the implementation of the deal through a trilateral “Military Coordination Group for Lebanon” and that Washington would commit significant resources, including an immediate $100 million in humanitarian assistance in coordination with the U.N.
Rubio added that the U.S. reaffirmed its intent to improve the capabilities of the Lebanese Armed Forces “to more effectively establish sovereignty throughout Lebanese territory” with more than $30 million in funds under existing U.S. authorities and appropriations.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah broke out when the armed group fired at Israel on March 2, days after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. The Hezbollah attacks triggered Israeli air and ground attacks that have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon and displaced more than a million.
Lebanon’s Moawad also called it a “first step” on the road to restoring Lebanese sovereignty.
“Iran is out, Hezbollah is out, and the road to peace between Israel and Lebanon is in,” Leiter said.
Netanyahu said in a statement that the deal would also allow the Lebanese army “to begin organizing to take control of territory,” starting with what he described as two “pilot zones” from which Israeli troops would withdraw from land they occupied during the war.
Israel describes that territory as a “security zone” or “buffer zone” where its troops can thwart Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the agreement should allow Lebanese to return to “fully liberated” land and rebuilt homes with “no partner” in its sovereignty.
Israel’s death toll from this round of hostilities with Hezbollah includes at least 32 soldiers and four Israeli civilians. Hezbollah does not release figures on its war dead. Reuters reported on May 4 that several thousand Hezbollah fighters had been killed in the war.
A State Department official told Reuters on Thursday that Israel had agreed to pull back from some of the territory it has occupied, something Israeli and Lebanese officials denied.
Before the talks resumed this week, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt fire even as Israel kept troops in southern Lebanon.
Violence has persisted since the ceasefire, with Israel saying on Friday its troops had struck and killed what the military described as seven Hezbollah members who were operating near the territory it is occupying. Reuters could not confirm this.
“To the degree that the Lebanese army performs in dismantling and disarming Hezbollah, we will proceed with additional pilot zones and the ultimate determination of an internationally recognized, secure, and agreed upon border,” Leiter told reporters after the signing.
Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said Lebanese authorities would not be able to enforce the agreement unless, with U.S. support, “they go to civil war,” pro-Iranian broadcaster Al Mayadeen reported, read the report.
Hezbollah would confront any measure taken by Lebanese authorities and would hold on to its weapons even more, adding that the group’s opposition was “serious” and would not allow authorities to implement their commitments on the ground, Fadlallah said.
Israeli forces dropped leaflets over the southern Lebanese town of Mansouri on Friday ordering residents to leave, Lebanese state media reported, the first such order issued since the latest ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect.
A senior Lebanese military official said Israel had recently added Mansouri to its occupation zone. The official said Lebanese farmers had continued to enter and leave the town, but had not been living there.
An Israeli military spokesperson said the military issued what it described as a “reminder” to the civilian population that “the area is within the security zone in which (Israeli) soldiers operate. It’s a reminder not to be in the area so they won’t be harmed.”
World
Venezuela earthquake death toll rises to 188 as rescue efforts continue
According to officials, 138 aftershocks have been recorded since the twin 7.2- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes struck late Wednesday, causing widespread destruction.
The death toll from the powerful earthquakes that struck Venezuela’s northern Caribbean coast has risen to 188, authorities confirmed on Thursday, as emergency crews continue search and rescue operations.
Jorge Rodriguez, President of Venezuela’s National Assembly, said 1,520 people have been hospitalized with injuries, while 157 people remain missing. Rescue teams are still searching for more than 200 people believed to be trapped beneath collapsed buildings.
According to officials, 138 aftershocks have been recorded since the twin 7.2- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes struck late Wednesday, causing widespread destruction.
Rodriguez said 346 infrastructure sites sustained damage, including 250 buildings, 20 shopping centers, and eight hospitals, forcing authorities to transfer patients to other medical facilities.
The Venezuelan government has announced the establishment of a $200 million emergency reconstruction fund to support the rebuilding of damaged homes, hospitals, and other critical infrastructure.
Following the disaster, Acting President Delcy Rodriguez declared a national state of emergency, while tsunami warnings were issued across parts of the Caribbean region after the powerful earthquakes.
World
Rescue work underway after quakes rock Venezuela, ‘high casualties’ likely
Strong earthquakes struck west of Venezuela’s capital on Wednesday afternoon, toppling buildings in Caracas, trapping people in the rubble and prompting scientists to warn of potentially heavy casualties and widespread destruction across the South American country.
A magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit about 160 km (100 miles) west of Caracas, followed less than a minute later by a magnitude 7.5 tremor, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Reuters reported.
“High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread,” the USGS said, initially estimating the death toll would most likely range from 10,000 to 100,000.
Interim President Delcy Rodriguez said she would declare a state of emergency and request funds from multilateral organizations to back the recovery effort.
“We extend our condolences to those who have unfortunately suffered the loss of a family member,” she said in a national address, without giving a national count for deaths or injuries.
Local officials and witnesses reported collapsed buildings, rescues and a growing number of injured.
“We have buildings, homes and houses which have collapsed and we are taking care of things with everything we have available in terms of security, civil assistance,” Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said earlier on state television.
Video footage showed emergency workers climbing through the ruins of a collapsed building in the capital as night fell, while distraught relatives sought help for loved ones believed to be trapped.
Gustavo Duque, the mayor of the Chacao municipality in Caracas, said several buildings collapsed, and 18 survivors were extracted from one building alone. He urged onlookers to seek shelter and aid at public plazas because there could be aftershocks.
“We’re going to do everything we can to rescue the most people possible,” he said.
Twenty-two people were injured in the coastal state of Falcon, Governor Victor Clark said on state television. Fifteen missing people, all adults, were still being searched for.
RESIDENTS RUSH INTO THE STREETS
Many Venezuelans were at home when the quakes struck during a public holiday marking an 1821 military victory that helped secure the country’s independence from Spain.
“As soon as it started, we began hearing people screaming,” said Astrid Ramirez, a 41-year-old publicist in western Caracas. “Everyone was running down the stairs.”
Residents across Caracas, which was also hit by a deadly magnitude 6.3 earthquake in 1967, rushed to evacuate as buildings shook.
“There was a very loud crash. Things fell in the house, jugs inside the refrigerator. I’ve never experienced anything like it,” said Coro Martinez, 56, who lives in eastern Caracas.
Item 1 of 10 Emergency services work at the site of a collapsed building after an earthquake, in Caracas, Venezuela, June 24. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa
Maria Romero, an 80-year-old pensioner in southern Caracas, said police helped her get out of her home. “This earthquake was horrible, even worse than the one in 1967,” she said.
Another resident, a 41-year-old office worker who declined to be named, said she received an earthquake alert on her phone just before the shaking intensified.
“As I picked it up and started listening to what it was saying, I first felt light shaking. Then, in less than two seconds, everything started moving.”
Rodriguez has been running the country since the U.S. ouster of President Nicolas Maduro in January. She has hailed a new era of cooperation with the U.S. and other countries, especially on oil, mining and other industries.
The U.S. embassy in Caracas said it was closely monitoring the aftermath of the quake and urged citizens in the country to seek secure shelter and avoid damaged areas.
HOSPITALS BRACE FOR THE INJURED
Fire trucks were seen on the streets of Caracas, where some buildings suffered significant facade damage.
At Caracas’ Hospital de Clinicas, staff were asked to double up on the night shift to help treat the injured, a worker there said.
Venezuela’s largest airport, in Maiquetia on the coast north of Caracas, was closed due to damages, Rodriguez said.
Classes were cancelled for the rest of the week as authorities began to take stock of the damage.
Venezuela’s oil infrastructure did not immediately appear to be affected by the tremors, as almost none of the cities with official reports of severe damage include critical oil infrastructure. Civil protection authorities in Maracaibo, near the large oil hub of Lake Maracaibo, said there were no injuries reported.
Many energy companies with operations in the country were accounting for staff before making initial assessments on the condition of oilfields, plants and refineries.
One source noted that extended loss of power could hit crude output levels until the service is restored. Venezuela’s oil ministry, state-run oil company PDVSA (PDVSA.UL) and its main foreign partner, Chevron did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
TSUNAMI ALERT WITHDRAWN
The U.S. Tsunami Warning System issued a tsunami threat for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands after the earthquake, and said hazardous waves could also affect Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire. The warning was withdrawn about an hour later.
Venezuela lies in a seismically active zone where the Caribbean Plate meets the South American Plate.
An estimated 30,000 people were killed when a powerful quake caused widespread destruction in the cities of Merida and Caracas in 1812, according to the USGS.
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