Regional
Gaza ceasefire and hostage release set to begin
During the first phase the Israeli army will pull back from some of its positions in Gaza and Palestinians displaced from areas in northern Gaza will be allowed to return.
A ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is set to come into effect on Sunday morning with a hostage release to follow hours later, opening the way to a possible end to a 15-month war that has upended the Middle East, Reuters reported.
Israeli forces started withdrawing from areas in Gaza’s Rafah to the Philadelphi corridor along the border between Egypt and Gaza, pro-Hamas media reported early on Sunday.
The ceasefire agreement followed months of on-off negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, and came just ahead of the Jan. 20 inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
The three-stage ceasefire will come into effect at 0630 GMT on Sunday.
Its first stage will last six weeks, during which 33 of the remaining 98 hostages – women, children, men over 50, the ill and wounded – will be released in return for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
They include 737 male, female and teen-aged prisoners, some of whom are members of militant groups convicted of attacks that killed dozens of Israelis, as well as hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza in detention since the start of the war, read the report.
Three female hostages are expected to be released on Sunday afternoon through the Red Cross, in return for 30 prisoners each.
After Sunday’s hostage release, lead U.S. negotiator Brett McGurk said, the accord calls for four more female hostages to be freed after seven days, followed by the release of three further hostages every seven days thereafter.
During the first phase the Israeli army will pull back from some of its positions in Gaza and Palestinians displaced from areas in northern Gaza will be allowed to return.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s team worked closely with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to push the deal over the line.
As his inauguration approached, Trump had repeated his demand that a deal be done swiftly, warning repeatedly that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released.
But what will come next in Gaza remains unclear in the absence of a comprehensive agreement on the postwar future of the enclave, which will require billions of dollars and years of work to rebuild.
And although the stated aim of the ceasefire is to end the war entirely, it could easily unravel.
Hamas, which has controlled Gaza for almost two decades, has survived despite losing its top leadership and thousands of fighters, Reuters reported.
Israel has vowed it will not allow Hamas to return to power and has cleared large stretches of ground inside Gaza, in a step widely seen as a move towards creating a buffer zone that will allow its troops to act freely against threats in the enclave.
In Israel, the return of the hostages may ease some of the public anger against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government over the Oct. 7 security failure that led to the deadliest single day in the country’s history.
But hardliners in his government have already threatened to quit if war on Hamas is not resumed, leaving him pressed between Washington’s desire to see the war end, and his far-right political allies at home.
And if war resumes, dozens of hostages could be left behind in Gaza.
Outside Gaza, the war sent shockwaves across the region, triggering a war with the Tehran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah movement and bringing Israel into direct conflict with its arch-foe Iran for the first time, Reuters reported.
More than a year later, the Middle East has been transformed. Iran, which spent billions building up a network of militant groups around Israel, has seen its “Axis of Resistance” wrecked and was unable to inflict more than minimal damage on Israel in two major missile attacks.
Hezbollah, whose huge missile arsenal was once seen as the biggest threat to Israel, has been humbled, with its top leadership killed and most of its missiles and military infrastructure destroyed.
In the aftermath, the decades-long Assad regime in Syria was overturned, removing another major Iranian ally and leaving Israel’s military effectively unchallenged in the region.
But on the diplomatic front, Israel has faced outrage and isolation over the death and devastation in Gaza.
Netanyahu faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant on war crimes allegations and separate accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice.
Israel has reacted with fury to both cases, rejecting the charges as politically motivated and accusing South Africa, which brought the original ICJ case as well as the countries that have joined it, of antisemitism.
The war was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies. More than 400 Israeli soldiers have been killed in combat in Gaza since.
Israel’s 15-month campaign in Gaza has killed nearly 47,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health ministry figures, which do not distinguish between fighters and civilians, and left the narrow coastal enclave a wasteland of rubble.
Health officials say most of the dead are civilians. Israel says more than a third are fighters.
Regional
Turkey lays out plans for defence pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army, has said the pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia was open to expansion.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will group senior ministers, hold joint exercises and deepen defence industry cooperation under a military pact signed between the regional powers last week, Turkey’s defence ministry said on Thursday.
The three Sunni Muslim U.S. allies, alarmed by a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters, signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” on August 7. They said the accord stipulates that an armed attack against any member would be regarded as an attack on all, similar to NATO’s Article 5 collective defence clause, Reuters reported.
At a weekly briefing in Ankara, the defence ministry said the pact’s fundamental goal was to ensure defence and military ties were put on a “more institutional and sustainable” footing.
“Under the accord, strategic political and military mechanisms plan to be established involving the Defence Ministers, Foreign Ministers, and Chiefs of General Staff/Armed Forces Commanders, and that coordination among the three countries will be conducted at the highest level,” it said.
The ministry added that joint military exercises involving land, naval, and air forces, as well as air defence and unmanned systems were planned, in addition to deeper defence industry cooperation.
“The aim is to provide not only product and system supply, but also joint development and production, technology cooperation, and sustainable maintenance and logistics support,” it said, adding that unmanned and autonomous systems, electronic warfare and artificial intelligence capabilities would be prioritised.
Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army, has said the pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia was open to expansion — with Egypt as a potential candidate — and did not seek to replace any existing alliances, read the report.
The ministry also said Turkey was participating in meetings in Jeddah aimed at establishing an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping.
Regional
Iran says no progress on reviving interim peace deal with US
Throughout the conflict, Trump has alternated between threats of escalation and claims that a peace deal is imminent.
Iran and the United States remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Gulf, according to a senior Iranian source, who said there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it, Reuters reported.
The comments came as U.S. President Donald Trump issued yet another broadside against Iran’s leaders, dealing a further blow to hopes for a resolution to the crisis, following new attacks on shipping in the region on Tuesday.
The deal agreed in June declared an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts”, but quickly unravelled, with Trump saying it was “over” on July 7 and Iran’s foreign ministry declaring it “suspended” a week later.
The U.S. accuses Iran of failing to honor an agreement under the deal to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route. Tehran says Washington has reneged on its commitments, including lifting a blockade of Iranian ports and releasing frozen Iranian assets.
“One of the issues that is being discussed via mediators is the U.S. returning to the interim agreement and defining a time frame for implementing the commitments. There has been absolutely no progress on this issue,” the Iranian source said.
Trump said on Wednesday that the U.S. has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz.
But the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the body Iran set up to manage the waterway, said it remains blocked and will not be reopened until Iran’s conditions are accepted.
“Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
Throughout the conflict, Trump has alternated between threats of escalation and claims that a peace deal is imminent.
Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, read the report.
Iran has struck U.S. assets and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The June interim ceasefire agreement set a 60-day period, extendable by mutual consent, within which Iran and the U.S. were expected to reach a final deal limiting Tehran’s nuclear program and lifting U.S. sanctions.
The Iranian source dismissed a report on Wednesday from Turkey’s Anadolu news agency that quoted Pakistani government sources as saying they had agreed to extend that 60-day period.
“There is no talk of an extension because, from Iran’s perspective, there is no period that began and therefore nothing to extend. The United States violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached and withdrew from it a few days later,” the source told Reuters.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman and the entrance to the Gulf, handled a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flow before the war.
Benchmark Brent crude futures have surged since the start of the war in February, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels, with choppy trade reflecting concerns over disruptions to Gulf oil supplies and shifting signals on peace talks.
On Tuesday, in separate incidents, a suspected and a U.S. Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles to , the U.S. military said.
Oil prices rose but then steadied in volatile trading on Wednesday, after forecasters cut projections for 2026 oil demand. Brent crude futures were trading at around $88 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude at around $83 a barrel.
Regional
New attacks on shipping as Iran war talks hit fresh impasse
Oil prices gained and global shares retreated amid renewed pessimism about a quick end to the conflict. Brent crude futures climbed 1.4% to settle at $88.91 per barrel and U.S. crude rose 1.3% to $83.20.
The U.S. and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping on Tuesday as prospects for ending the Iran war appeared to dim, with Tehran saying the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington accepts its conditions.
The attacks, in the Gulf of Oman leading to the strait and at the entrance to the Red Sea — both vital chokepoints for global oil supplies — come as the war shows no signs of ending despite repeated assertions from U.S. President Donald Trump of a deal being imminent, Reuters reported.
Oil prices gained and global shares retreated amid renewed pessimism about a quick end to the conflict. Brent crude futures climbed 1.4% to settle at $88.91 per barrel and U.S. crude rose 1.3% to $83.20.
At the southern end of the Red Sea, four crew members were killed in a suspected Houthi attack on a small cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, Yemen’s Transport Ministry said. Two Yemeni rescuers from an anti-Houthi military group were also killed, Yemen’s Coast Guard said.
The fatalities aboard the Egyptian-owned Tihamah would be the first deaths on shipping by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis since the Iran war began.
The Houthi-run news agency Saba reported that the group, which said last month it would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, attacked a Saudi ship carrying military equipment in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It did not name the ship, and there was no immediate Saudi response to the report.
The U.S. military, meanwhile, said a U.S. Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles to disable the steering gear of a Panama-flagged cargo ship.
The ship ignored repeated warnings to stop violating a naval blockade on Iranian ports, the U.S. Central Command said. Maritime sources told Reuters the ship was hit off Pakistan while sailing into the Gulf of Oman.
STEPPED UP RHETORIC
Both Iran and the United States have stepped up rhetoric in the past two days.
Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said on Tuesday that the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route will remain closed unless the U.S. accepts Iran’s conditions to end the war – the release of Iran’s frozen assets and an end to conflicts throughout the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza.
That followed a new demand from Trump on Monday that Iran should pay compensation for people killed in 50 years of wars, attacks and protests.
Throughout the conflict, Trump has alternated between threats of escalation and claims that a peace deal is imminent.
In an interview released late on Monday, he suggested the uncertainty could last for a while, saying he might just “bop along” and let Tehran fail economically, or hit them “really, really hard.”
“I’m sort of negotiating,” Trump told Real America’s Voice. “They’re very devious negotiators.”
Speaking to reporters after a visit to Ohio on Tuesday, Trump said “Iran is going fine, going just absolutely fine.”
“We totally control the Strait of Hormuz … Nobody else, only us,” he said.
“At some point, maybe they’ll do something and then they get blown away,” he said of Iran. “But right now, we’re in a very good position. We have a country that has been the bully of the Middle East for 50 years, really 51 if you think about it … and they’re no longer the bully of the Middle East.”
Asked about an incident in which he switched planes in Turkey last month because of worries over reports of a potential Iranian assassination threat, Trump suggested the alternative aircraft may have faced greater risk.
“That would be the plane I think that they would be more likely to go for,” he told reporters after The Washington Post broke the story about him secretly taking a military flight instead of Air Force One in an operation involving him being moved between aircraft in a catering truck.
“Any consequential president has a lot of threats,” Trump added. “I don’t worry about anything.”
The comments from Rezaei, appointed on Sunday as second-in-command of the body that coordinates Iran’s security and foreign policy, were the strongest indication the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen to shipping anytime soon. The waterway handled a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flow before the war.
“As long as America does not change its behaviour and does not accept Iran’s conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened,” Rezaei said, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
There was no immediate comment from Washington on Iran’s latest comments.
Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.
Iran has struck U.S. assets and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Raising the prospect of further escalation, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an adviser to the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said on Iranian state TV on Tuesday that the corps was developing the ability to carry out operations “on enemy soil.”
“We need to be able to move the operations to the enemy’s soil, whenever this is needed and ordered,” he said. “This is the characteristic of the offensive doctrine that has to be attained.”
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