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Only Gaza ceasefire will delay retaliation, say Iranian officials

In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.

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Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.

Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.

One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.

With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

In comments published on Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.

“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. said on Friday in a statement. Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint “contradict principles of international law.”

Iran’s foreign ministry and its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to questions.

“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

“If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added.

At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.

In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.

“We are closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any (possible) threat, while also preparing a variety of offensive options,” Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an intelligence base in Northern Israel.

“We are determined to fulfill our mission – we must ensure the safe return of (Israel’s northern) residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River.”

Iran’s regional policy is set by the elite Revolutionary Guards, who answer only to Khamenei, the country’s top authority. Iran’s relatively moderate new president Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly reaffirmed Iran’s anti-Israel stance and its support for resistance movements across the region since taking office last month.

Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, said he thought Iran would put its needs before helping its ally Hamas but that Iran also wanted to avoid a full-scale war.

“The Iranians never subordinated their strategy and policies to the needs of their proxies or protégées,” Litvak said. “An attack is likely and almost inevitable but I don’t know the scale and the timing.”

Iran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the Islamic Republic’s leaders were now keen to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, “to obtain incentives, avoid an all-out war and strengthen its position in the region.”

Laylaz said Iran had not previously been involved in the Gaza peace process but was now ready to play “a key role.”

Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions “to maintain a line of diplomatic communication” with the United States while negotiations proceed.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York told Reuters that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the ceasefire talks. Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in talks.

Two senior sources close to Lebanon’s Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions to retaliate.

A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller “symbolic” response, one of the sources said.

Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Since then, nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, according to the health ministry.

Iran has not publicly indicated what would be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination. Reuters

On April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran’s embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two airbases. Almost all of the weapons were shot down before they reached their targets.

“Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April 13 attack,” said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East policy.”

Nadimi said such a response would require “a lot of preparation and coordination” especially if it involved Iran’s network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the United States across the Middle East, with Hezbollah the senior member of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” that along with Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis have harried Israel since Oct. 7.

Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.

The sources did not specify what form such support could take.

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Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US concessions on several demands

Araqchi said reopening ​the strait would depend in part on the U.S. paying compensation for damage it caused in widespread attacks on Iran.

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Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes between them through the Strait of Hormuz ​but repeated that the U.S. must meet other conditions, including compensation and an end to sanctions and military threats, before the strategic waterway is reopened.

A U.S. official told ‌Reuters on Friday that Iran and Oman were close to a deal that could pave the way for restoring safe passage through the strait, a major conduit for oil and gas shipping before Iran blocked Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on Tehran that began in late February, Reuters reported.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday an agreement with Oman on the strait was in its “final stages” but reiterated comments made on Saturday that Tehran would not reopen the ​channel unless the U.S. met certain demands made by Tehran.

The deal with Iran would set out the new shipping lanes to be used once the U.S. fulfils those conditions ​and the strait is reopened, Iran’s Mehr news agency quoted him as saying.

Iran and the U.S. are not engaged in direct talks, and Tehran will ⁠not start them as long as Washington breaches an interim deal signed in June, Araqchi said, adding that messages were being exchanged through intermediaries.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with ​Axios that the U.S. was “low-keying” it with Iran. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”

CONDITIONS INCLUDE COMPENSATION

Araqchi said reopening ​the strait would depend in part on the U.S. paying compensation for damage it caused in widespread attacks on Iran.

The secretary of Iran’s top national security body, Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, also listed ending further U.S. threats against Iran; halting aggression toward Iran and its Lebanese, Palestinian, Yemeni and Iraqi allies; removing a U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf; lifting sanctions on Iran; and releasing frozen Iranian assets.

The United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran more than ​five months ago. Trump has said the attacks were aimed at keeping the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons and degrading its ability to threaten the region.

Washington and Tehran agreed to a ​ceasefire in June, but the U.S. reimposed a blockade on Iranian shipping in the Gulf in July, a move that Tehran said violated the truce, which by then had already broken down.

“Once the deal is announced to ‌restore commercial shipping ⁠without impediments, the United States will lift the blockade of Iranian ports,” the U.S. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

U.S. actions would be tied to Iran’s implementation of its commitments, the official said.

The U.S. comments indicated delicate sequencing toward a deal that sources had told Reuters appeared to be set to give Tehran control over vessel traffic entering the Gulf through the strait, which shippers have said was not easily workable.

The United Arab Emirates said on Saturday that Iran had attacked a ship affiliated with its state oil company. There was no immediate comment from Iran, whose Revolutionary Guard Corps previously has ​attacked ships that it said tried to cross the ​strait without Iranian permission.

HOUTHI ATTACKS

Iranian strikes on ⁠Strait of Hormuz shipping have been coupled with increased attacks by its Yemen-based allies, the Houthi rebels, who have targeted ships at another oil chokepoint on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis also declared a naval blockade against Saudi ​Arabia in the Red Sea last month in response to what they said was a Saudi siege on them in Yemen, an allegation denied ​by Riyadh, which backs ⁠Yemen’s internationally recognised government.

The Yemeni rebel group said they had attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on Sunday, two days after the kingdom signed a defence pact with Sunni Muslim allies Turkey and Pakistan in response to growing regional instability from the U.S.-Israeli war on Shi’ite Iran.

The Saudi energy ministry said a fire had broken out at the refinery but was later extinguished with no injuries, without giving a cause.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan ⁠said the ​new alliance was not directed against Iran or any other country, but rather served as a general pledge to support ​security.

Fighting has escalated between the Houthis and government forces in Yemen, with the Yemeni military on Monday saying seven people including military personnel and civilians were killed in a Houthi attack on the Red Sea port city of Mocha.

Air defences ​intercepted and shot down 11 Houthi drones that participated in the attack, the military said.

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Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia defence pact technically same as NATO’s Article 5, Turkish minister says

Fidan also said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wanted to see the alliance expand, and that Egypt was a potential candidate to ​join, among others.

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A defence pact signed between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is ‌technically the same as NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence agreement, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday, adding the accord was not targeting Iran.

Fidan also said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wanted to see the alliance expand, and that Egypt was a potential candidate to ​join, among others.

The regional powers signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” on Friday, wedding Sunni Muslim U.S. allies alarmed ​at a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters.

In a ⁠joint statement, they said the accord intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and stipulates ​that an armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all.

Speaking to the ​state-run Anadolu news agency, Fidan said the new alliance was not directed against Iran or any other country, but rather served as a general pledge to support the three allies’ security.

He added that the allies would decide through consultations what degree, form, and format of ​support they would ask for in the event of an attack, but that no country would be considered a ​threat as long as a member state is not attacked.

Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army, has said the pact was open ‌to ⁠expansion to other regional countries and did not seek to replace any existing alliances.

“NATO is a giant military alliance where there are 32 countries. We have started here as three countries and we have to take very humble but concrete steps,” he said, adding efforts to finalise the pact had been underway for two years and eight months.

He ​added that a committee ​of ministers similar to that ⁠within NATO would be formed as part of the alliance, as well as a general secretariat based in Saudi Arabia, but that operational details would be set at ​the first committee meeting.

“Our president’s vision is that we don’t remain limited to three ​countries, that ⁠we grow and bring together all (regional) countries under this roof,” he said, adding Egypt could potentially join the pact once certain technical matters are resolved.

In recent months, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt formed a group to address regional issues, ⁠namely the ​war on Iran. Turkey has said the group – dubbed the R4 – ​aims to solidify its partnership through concrete mechanisms.

Fidan also said Turkey should be involved in an international coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea ​from Houthi attacks because shipping safety concerned Ankara’s interests.

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Goods transporters to go on strike from Saturday after talks with Pakistan govt fail

However, the minister has assured the transporters that he would discuss their demands, and the next round of talks would be held on Monday morning.

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Goods transporters and oil tanker operators began suspending their services on Friday night after negotiations with the Pakistani government failed, ahead of their nationwide wheel-jam strike scheduled for Saturday.

All Pakistan Goods Transport Itehad spokesman and All Pakistan Goods Transport Owners Association President Mohammad Owais Chaudhry Advocate told Dawn that talks with Federal Minister for Communications Aleem Khan and other government officials had failed.

He said the negotiations ended without a breakthrough, prompting transporters, including edible oil tanker operators, petroleum oil tanker operators, truckers, trailer operators and other intercity transporters, to proceed with their previously announced strike.

“We have informed the government side about the problems we are facing and our concerns,” Chaudhry said, adding that the strike would continue until their demands were accepted.

However, the minister has assured the transporters that he would discuss their demands, and the next round of talks would be held on Monday morning.

The unified body of transporters had already announced that it would begin its wheel-jam strike from August 8, and warned that it would not be a token strike but an indefinite one.

“Commercial goods carriers across the country have already been taken off the roads and will remain stationed at designated places during the protest period,” Chaudhry said.

Among the key demands of the transporters is the uniform enforcement of axle-load limits across the country and permission for 10-wheel vehicles to carry up to 35 tonnes.

They have also demanded reductions in diesel prices and toll taxes, besides seeking relief in withholding tax to ease the financial burden on the transport sector.

The transporters have also called for the withdrawal of customs provisions that, according to the association, allow authorities to confiscate vehicles carrying goods found to be in violation of customs laws.

Other demands include the withdrawal of the Punjab Highway Patrol’s powers to issue challans to commercial vehicles, an end to what the association described as unnecessary challans and excessive fines on motorways and highways, and measures to facilitate the issuance of heavy transport vehicle licences to drivers.

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