UN official warns Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis could threaten regional stability and security

A senior United Nations official has warned that Afghanistan’s deepening humanitarian crisis could have consequences beyond the country’s borders, potentially affecting regional security, stability and migration routes.

Bruno Lemarquis, the UN Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan and Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, said on Friday that the country was at a “difficult crossroad” more than five years after the Islamic Emirate returned to power.

He said relative stability and security were being undermined by a fragile economy, restrictions on fundamental rights and growing humanitarian needs.

Lemarquis described restrictions on women and girls as “severe and sweeping,” saying they continue to face barriers to education, employment and participation in public life.

He noted that more than 2.6 million girls have been deprived of secondary education since 2021, while female university enrollment currently stands at zero.

The UN official also highlighted the impact of the mass return of Afghan migrants, saying approximately 6.7 million Afghans have returned to the country since 2020, many of them forcibly expelled from neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan and Iran.

He said the large-scale returns were placing additional pressure on Afghanistan’s already overstretched public services, stressing that returnees urgently need legal documentation, protection and employment opportunities.

Lemarquis also raised concerns over a reported increase in opium poppy cultivation, citing a UN report that found production had risen by 330 percent in 2025 following a sharp decline after the 2022 ban imposed by the Islamic Emirate.

He said efforts to prevent poppy cultivation must be accompanied by viable alternative livelihoods for farmers.

Meanwhile, humanitarian needs in Afghanistan are expected to rise further in 2027 amid mass returns, regional instability and extreme weather risks associated with El Niño.

However, international humanitarian funding has continued to decline. According to Lemarquis, assistance reached $2 billion in 2023, fell to $1 billion in 2025 and has amounted to only $570 million so far in 2026.

He warned that funding shortages were threatening essential services, with around 40 percent of primary healthcare facilities expected to close between 2025 and 2026, potentially affecting 700 of the country’s 1,900 health posts.

Describing the consequences as “very, very, very significant,” Lemarquis urged the international community not to turn its back on Afghanistan.

“And there is a saying in Afghanistan that is ‘What is happening in Afghanistan is not staying in Afghanistan,’” he said.

“The consequences could go beyond the Afghanistan border, potentially affecting regional security, regional stability and migration pathways.”