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Expert foresees shift in US policy on Afghanistan under Biden

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(Last Updated On: December 10, 2020)

With less than 50 days before president-elect Joe Biden takes office, speculation is growing as to how the US counterterrorism policies will shift under a new administration, with one expert saying it is naive to think the Taliban will stick to its promises, work in good faith with the Afghan government and break ties with al-Qaeda.

Jason Blazakis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and director of its Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism, wrote in an opinion article published in The Hill on Thursday that it is anticipated that Biden’s incoming foreign policy team will reinvigorate US multilateral counterterrorism efforts at the United Nations and elsewhere.

Blazakis stated that US policies on Iraq and Afghanistan will likely shift, “given that ISIS remains a threat to stability in the Near East and the al-Qaeda core and ISIS branch known as Khorasan remain active in Southwest Asia (including Afghanistan).”

Blazakis said that Biden’s security team is unlikely to drastically increase troop presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, but if the stability in the respective countries continue to devolve, “observers should expect some level of redeployment, a significant increase in bilateral and multilateral capacity-building efforts to shore up counterpart security, and an expansion of programmatic efforts to counter violent extremism.”

He said that since outgoing President Donald Trump’s move to withdraw troops from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, “ISIS brazenly launched an alarming number of attacks.”

“The Trump peace agreement with the Taliban (in February) will create an atmosphere, because of US troop withdrawal, for al-Qaeda to regain sanctuary and finally regroup after two decades of being on its heels,” he said.

“Believing that the Taliban will fulfill its promises and work in good faith with the Afghan government and break its relationship with al Qaeda is naive.

“In October, the Taliban demonstrated its continued resolve to fight when it killed more than 40 Afghan police officials in Helmand Province,” he said.

Blazakis stated that Biden inherits a challenging national security environment, and efforts to counter threats including ISIS and al-Qaeda remain paramount.

“But human rights considerations must be fundamental to the Biden team’s application of counterterrorism power. Mistakes of the past, such as drone targeting that has resulted in too many civilian casualties, must be avoided,” he said.

Pointing out that the former Obama administration’s security team recognized this late in then president Barack Obama’s second term but then ordered a report on civilian deaths associated with US drones.

“The Trump national security team canceled the report last year, setting back efforts to improve transparency in the conduct of counterterrorism. Transparency, accountability, oversight, and regional and multilateral cooperation to mitigate terror and extremism must be the principles that guide the Biden team’s fight against bad actors,” Blazakis stated.

If these principles are not adhered to, mistakes of the past will be repeated and human rights will continue to be eroded, he added.

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Tehran ‘ready to help’ IEA fight terrorism after Herat mosque shooting

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(Last Updated On: April 30, 2024)

Iran’s embassy in Kabul has announced Tehran is ready to work with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) to fight terrorism.

This came just hours after a gunman opened fire on worshipers at a mosque in Herat province. At least six people are believed to have been killed in the shooting – which the Iranian embassy labeled a “terrorist incident”.

The embassy said it wants the perpetrators identified and punished.

Abdul Mateen Qani, the spokesman of Afghanistan’s Ministry of Interior, said the incident happened on Monday night in Herat province, in the Shahrak area of Guzara District, when an unknown gunman opened fire on worshipers with an AK-47.

Qani said six people died and one was wounded.

He stated that further details would be released later.

So far, no group or individual has claimed responsibility for the attack.

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IEA’s deputy prime minister meets with Chinese ambassador

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(Last Updated On: April 30, 2024)

China’s ambassador to Kabul Zhao Xing, said in a meeting with Mawlawi Abdul Salam Hanafi, the administrative deputy prime minister of the Islamic Emirate, that relations between the two countries were unique on a regional level and that China wants to expand these relations as much as possible in the political, economic and cultural fields.

Zhao said in order to further strengthen relations between the two countries, China provides scholarships to Afghan students and also organizes short-term training courses to improve the capacity of Afghans.

In addition to expressing his sympathy to the victims of the recent flash floods in the country, the Chinese ambassador also announced his country’s offer of $100,000 in aid to flood victims.

Hanafi in turn described relations between the two countries as historical and emphasized the need to keep expanding these ties.

He also said the IEA appreciates China’s position regarding the Islamic Emirate in international forums and said that the Islamic Emirate supports China’s policy and Beijing’s economic projects such as One Belt and One Road.

Hanafi added that the Islamic Emirate wants good relations with all countries and does not allow anyone to use Afghanistan’s soil against other countries.

He said the IEA expects other countries to treat Afghanistan based on mutual respect.

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UN experts say North Korea missile landed in Ukraine’s Kharkiv

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(Last Updated On: April 30, 2024)

The debris from a missile that landed in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on Jan. 2 was from a North Korean Hwasong-11 series ballistic missile, United Nations sanctions monitors told a Security Council committee in a report seen by Reuters on Monday.

In the 32-page report, the U.N. sanctions monitors concluded that “debris recovered from a missile that landed in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on 2 January 2024 derives from a DPRK Hwasong-11 series missile” and is in violation of the arms embargo on North Korea.

Formally known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions for its ballistic missile and nuclear programs since 2006, and those measures have been strengthened over the years.

Three sanctions monitors traveled to Ukraine earlier this month to inspect the debris and found no evidence that the missile was made by Russia. They “could not independently identify from where the missile was launched, nor by whom.”

“Information on the trajectory provided by Ukrainian authorities indicates it was launched within the territory of the Russian Federation,” they wrote in an April 25 report to the Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee.

“Such a location, if the missile was under control of Russian forces, would probably indicate procurement by nationals of the Russian Federation,” they said, adding that this would be a violation of the arms embargo imposed on North Korea in 2006.

The Russian and North Korean missions to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report by the sanctions monitors, Reuters reported.

The U.S. and others have accused North Korea of transferring weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, which it invaded in February 2022. Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the accusations, but vowed last year to deepen military relations.

At a U.N. Security Council meeting in February, the U.S. accused Russia of launching DPRK-supplied ballistic missiles against Ukraine on at least nine occasions.

The U.N. monitors said the Hwasong-11 series ballistic missiles were first publicly tested by Pyongyang in 2019, Reuters reported.

Russia last month vetoed the annual renewal of the U.N. sanctions monitors – known as a panel of experts – that has for 15 years monitored enforcement of U.N. sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The mandate for the current panel of experts will expire on Tuesday.

Within days of the Jan. 2 attack, the Kharkiv region prosecutor’s office showcased fragments of the missile to the media, saying it was different from Russian models and “this may be a missile which was supplied by North Korea.”

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