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German Social Democrats beat conservatives in vote to decide Merkel successor

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Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly won Sunday’s national election, projected results showed, and claimed a “clear mandate” to lead a government for the first time since 2005 and to end 16 years of conservative-led rule under Angela Merkel.

The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) were on track for 26.0% of the vote, ahead of 24.5% for Merkel’s CDU/CSU conservative bloc, projections for broadcaster ZDF showed, but both groups believed they could lead the next government.

With neither major bloc commanding a majority, and both reluctant to repeat their awkward “grand coalition” of the past four years, the most likely outcome is a three-way alliance led by either the Social Democrats or Merkel’s conservatives.

Agreeing a new coalition could take months, and will likely involve the smaller Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP).

“We are ahead in all the surveys now,” the Social Democrats’ chancellor candidate, Olaf Scholz, said in a round table discussion with other candidates after the vote.

“It is an encouraging message and a clear mandate to make sure that we get a good, pragmatic government for Germany,” he added after earlier addressing jubilant SPD supporters.

The SPD’s rise heralds a swing left for Germany and marks a remarkable comeback for the party, which has recovered some 10 points in support in just three months to improve on its 20.5% result in the 2017 national election.

Scholz, 63, would become the fourth post-war SPD chancellor after Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schroeder. Finance minister in Merkel’s cabinet, he is a former mayor of Hamburg.

Scholz’s conservative rival Armin Laschet, signalled his bloc was not ready yet to concede, though his supporters were subdued.

“It hasn’t always been the first-placed party that provided the chancellor,” Laschet, 60, told the round table. “I want a government where every partner is involved, where everyone is visible – not one where only the chancellor gets to shine,” he said in an early attempt to woo smaller parties.

Schmidt ruled in the late 1970s and early 1980s in coalition with the FDP even though his Social Democrats had fewer parliamentary seats than the conservative bloc.

Attention will now shift to informal discussions followed by more formal coalition negotiations, which could take months, leaving Merkel in charge in a caretaker role.

Scholz and Laschet both said they would aim to strike a coalition deal before Christmas.

Merkel plans to step down after the election, making the vote an era-changing event to set the future course of Europe’s largest economy.

She has stood large on the European stage almost since taking office in 2005 – when George W. Bush was U.S. president, Jacques Chirac in the Elysee Palace in Paris and Tony Blair British prime minister.

After a domestic-focused election campaign, Berlin’s allies in Europe and beyond may have to wait for months before they can see whether the new German government is ready to engage on foreign issues to the extent they would like.

A row between Washington and Paris over a deal for Australia to buy U.S. instead of French submarines has put Germany in an awkward spot between allies, but also gives Berlin the chance to help heal relations and rethink their common stance on China.

On hearing that the SPD were slightly ahead in polls, U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters in Washington: “I’ll be darned… They’re solid.”

On economic policy, French President Emmanuel Macron is eager to forge a common European fiscal policy, which the Greens support but the CDU/CSU and FDP reject. The Greens also want “a massive expansion offensive for renewables”.

“Germany will end up with a rather weak chancellor who will struggle to get behind any kind of ambitious fiscal reform at the EU level,” said Naz Masraff at political risk consultancy Eurasia.

Whatever coalition ends up in power, Germany’s friends can at least take heart that moderate centrism has prevailed, and the populism that has taken hold in other European countries failed to break through.

The projected results for ZDF showed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on track for 10.5%, worse than four years ago when they stormed into the national parliament with 12.6% of the vote, and with all mainstream groupings ruling out a coalition with the party.

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Trump says further US attacks on Iran ‘highly unlikely’ as peace talks gain momentum

Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.

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US President Donald Trump has said further American military strikes against Iran are “highly unlikely”, signalling a possible shift towards de-escalation as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict gather momentum.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, Trump said Iran was effectively defeated militarily and suggested Washington was prepared to maintain the current situation while negotiations continued.

“Iran militarily is effectively over,” Trump said, adding that there was “positive momentum” behind efforts to reach an agreement.

“We’re just keeping it the status quo,” he said, explaining that the decision was largely being taken at the request of neighbouring countries.

Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.

“We’re locked and loaded,” he said, while describing further strikes as “highly unlikely”.

The comments come amid growing pressure on the Trump administration to bring the conflict to an end, following bruising midterm election results for Republicans last week. 

Several senior party figures, including Vice-President JD Vance, have pointed to the war as a factor behind the party’s poor performance.

Trump had previously indicated that US forces carried out what he described as limited strikes on an Iranian island near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. 

However, in a television interview broadcast on Sunday, he said he currently saw no reason to escalate the military campaign.

He also stopped short of formally declaring the war over, arguing that Washington still had to protect its Gulf allies from possible Iranian attacks.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, he suggested, was helping maintain security across the region.

Global oil prices fell further following Trump’s latest remarks, with Brent crude dropping more than 1% to around $91.50 a barrel, while US crude also declined.

Gulf diplomacy intensifies

Trump’s comments followed a meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani at the White House on Monday.

The US president described their discussions as excellent, while the Qatari leader said he had held positive talks with Trump and Vance on reaching an agreement and restoring regional peace.

Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have largely been conducted through intermediaries since the war erupted following joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran in February.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are among Washington’s Gulf partners that have been targeted by Iranian attacks during the conflict, while security concerns have also caused significant disruption to regional air travel.

Political pressure mounts in Washington

Meanwhile, the war is generating further political tensions in Washington.

Republican Congressman Thomas Massie on Monday announced plans to force a House of Representatives vote this week on impeaching Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth over his handling of the conflict.

Hegseth, who has received Trump’s backing, dismissed the threat, describing Massie’s effort as a “sham”.

The impeachment initiative is unlikely to succeed while Republicans retain control of Congress. However, Democrats have indicated they could pursue the matter when the new congressional session begins in January.

For Trump, the challenge is increasingly twofold: finding a diplomatic exit from the conflict while managing mounting political pressure at home and reassuring US allies across the Gulf.

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First Muslim US senator-elect El-Sayed calls for review of aid to Pakistan

He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.

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Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate, has called on Washington to reconsider its financial and military assistance to Pakistan and several other countries, arguing that American taxpayer money should not be used to support violations of international law.

El-Sayed, a Democrat who recently defeated Republican candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan, said the United States must ensure that its foreign assistance policies are consistent with international law.

In an interview with ABC, he stressed that the issue should not be limited to Israel, but should also include Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan.

“When we are giving money to a country that is using our money to violate international law, that seems to me a good place to start,” El-Sayed said.

His remarks come after US President Donald Trump announced plans to end approximately $4 billion in annual military assistance to Israel by the end of the year.

El-Sayed welcomed Trump’s proposal to reduce military aid to Israel, saying he agreed with the president’s approach.

He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.

The United States currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military assistance under an agreement that remains in effect until 2028.

However, El-Sayed’s criticism extends beyond Israel. He has also questioned US military assistance to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Pakistan, arguing that American taxpayer money should instead be directed towards domestic priorities.

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Houthi-run health ministry says airstrikes kill 33 near Yemen capital

The ministry said the strikes ​hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold ​east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.

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At least 33 people were killed and 39 wounded in what the Houthi-run Saba news agency said ​were Saudi airstrikes on a village near Yemen’s capital Sanaa ‌on Saturday, in one of the deadliest reported attacks since fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned group resumed in July.

Reuters could not independently verify the account. ​Saudi Arabia’s Center for International Communication said it was investigating the report.

The ​renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has shattered ⁠a 2022 UN-brokered truce that largely halted attacks between the Saudi-led ​coalition and the group, which controls Sanaa. The Houthis have since launched ​missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, while Riyadh has carried out airstrikes in Yemen in support of its Yemeni allies.

The ministry said the strikes ​hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold ​east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.

Abdul-Aziz al-Dailami, ‌director ⁠of Sehatuna Hospital in Sanaa, said many victims remained trapped under the rubble, including first responders.

“The strikes keep coming. Just as rescuers arrive, another strike hits. We have even lost some of our own medical responders, ​who have been martyred,” ​he told Reuters.

“We ⁠received a number of wounded individuals in very critical condition, with injuries to the head, chest and legs, ​as well as fractures,” al-Dailami added.

The fighting, a spillover ​from the ⁠wider US-Iran conflict, has revived a complex 12-year war in Yemen that has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises globally and fragmented the Arab world’s most ⁠impoverished ​country.

The number of people displaced since the ​latest round of fighting began has climbed to more than 200,000, the International Organization for Migration said ​in October.

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