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German Social Democrats beat conservatives in vote to decide Merkel successor

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Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly won Sunday’s national election, projected results showed, and claimed a “clear mandate” to lead a government for the first time since 2005 and to end 16 years of conservative-led rule under Angela Merkel.

The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) were on track for 26.0% of the vote, ahead of 24.5% for Merkel’s CDU/CSU conservative bloc, projections for broadcaster ZDF showed, but both groups believed they could lead the next government.

With neither major bloc commanding a majority, and both reluctant to repeat their awkward “grand coalition” of the past four years, the most likely outcome is a three-way alliance led by either the Social Democrats or Merkel’s conservatives.

Agreeing a new coalition could take months, and will likely involve the smaller Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP).

“We are ahead in all the surveys now,” the Social Democrats’ chancellor candidate, Olaf Scholz, said in a round table discussion with other candidates after the vote.

“It is an encouraging message and a clear mandate to make sure that we get a good, pragmatic government for Germany,” he added after earlier addressing jubilant SPD supporters.

The SPD’s rise heralds a swing left for Germany and marks a remarkable comeback for the party, which has recovered some 10 points in support in just three months to improve on its 20.5% result in the 2017 national election.

Scholz, 63, would become the fourth post-war SPD chancellor after Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schroeder. Finance minister in Merkel’s cabinet, he is a former mayor of Hamburg.

Scholz’s conservative rival Armin Laschet, signalled his bloc was not ready yet to concede, though his supporters were subdued.

“It hasn’t always been the first-placed party that provided the chancellor,” Laschet, 60, told the round table. “I want a government where every partner is involved, where everyone is visible – not one where only the chancellor gets to shine,” he said in an early attempt to woo smaller parties.

Schmidt ruled in the late 1970s and early 1980s in coalition with the FDP even though his Social Democrats had fewer parliamentary seats than the conservative bloc.

Attention will now shift to informal discussions followed by more formal coalition negotiations, which could take months, leaving Merkel in charge in a caretaker role.

Scholz and Laschet both said they would aim to strike a coalition deal before Christmas.

Merkel plans to step down after the election, making the vote an era-changing event to set the future course of Europe’s largest economy.

She has stood large on the European stage almost since taking office in 2005 – when George W. Bush was U.S. president, Jacques Chirac in the Elysee Palace in Paris and Tony Blair British prime minister.

After a domestic-focused election campaign, Berlin’s allies in Europe and beyond may have to wait for months before they can see whether the new German government is ready to engage on foreign issues to the extent they would like.

A row between Washington and Paris over a deal for Australia to buy U.S. instead of French submarines has put Germany in an awkward spot between allies, but also gives Berlin the chance to help heal relations and rethink their common stance on China.

On hearing that the SPD were slightly ahead in polls, U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters in Washington: “I’ll be darned… They’re solid.”

On economic policy, French President Emmanuel Macron is eager to forge a common European fiscal policy, which the Greens support but the CDU/CSU and FDP reject. The Greens also want “a massive expansion offensive for renewables”.

“Germany will end up with a rather weak chancellor who will struggle to get behind any kind of ambitious fiscal reform at the EU level,” said Naz Masraff at political risk consultancy Eurasia.

Whatever coalition ends up in power, Germany’s friends can at least take heart that moderate centrism has prevailed, and the populism that has taken hold in other European countries failed to break through.

The projected results for ZDF showed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on track for 10.5%, worse than four years ago when they stormed into the national parliament with 12.6% of the vote, and with all mainstream groupings ruling out a coalition with the party.

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Trump launches gold card program for expedited visas with a $1 million price tag

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President Donald Trump’s administration officially launched his “Trump Gold Card” visa program on Wednesday to provide a pathway, with a steep price, for non-U.S. citizens to get expedited permission to live in the United States.

The website Trumpcard.gov, complete with an “apply now” button, allows interested applicants to pay a $15,000 fee to the Department of Homeland Security for speedy processing, Reuters reported.

After going through a background check or vetting process, applicants must then make a “contribution” — the website also calls it a “gift” — of $1 million to get the visa, similar to a “Green Card,” which allows them to live and work in the United States.

“Basically it’s a Green Card, but much better. Much more powerful, a much stronger path,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “A path is a big deal. Have to be great people.”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said some 10,000 people have already signed up for the gold card during a pre-registration period and he expected many more to do so. “I would expect over time that we’d sell, you know, thousands of these cards and raise, you know, billions, billions of dollars,” Lutnick told Reuters in a brief interview.

Lutnick said the gold card program would bring people into the United States who would benefit the economy. He compared that to “average” Green Card holders, whom he said earned less money than average Americans and were more likely to be on or have family members on public assistance. He did not provide evidence for that assertion.

Trump’s administration has pursued a broad crackdown on immigration, deporting hundreds of thousands of people who were in the country illegally and also taking measures to discourage legal immigration.

The gold card program is the Trump version of a counter balance to that, designed to make money for the U.S. Treasury in the same way the president, a former New York businessman and reality television host, has said his tariff program has successfully done.

Lutnick noted that there was also a corporate version of the gold card that allowed companies to get expedited visas for employees they wanted to work in the United States, for a $2 million contribution per employee.

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Shooting at Kentucky State University kills one, suspect in custody

The New York Times, citing a university spokesperson, reported that the suspect was not a student, but both victims were, and that the shooting had taken place outside of a residential dorm.

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A shooting at Kentucky State University on Tuesday left one person dead and another in critical condition, according to police, who said the suspected assailant was taken into custody, Reuters reported.

Local police in Frankfort, the state capital, and county sheriff’s deputies made the arrest and secured the campus soon after reports of an active shooter, authorities said on social media. The Frankfort Police Department did not provide further details.

A spokesperson for Kentucky State University, a historically Black school, declined comment, but said the school – which had an enrollment of 1,700 students as of the fall of 2023 – would release a statement later on Tuesday.

The New York Times, citing a university spokesperson, reported that the suspect was not a student, but both victims were, and that the shooting had taken place outside of a residential dorm.

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Powerful 7.6 earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warnings issued

At Kuji Port in Iwate, a 70-centimeter tsunami was recorded, while Hokkaido observed waves of 50 centimeters in Urakawa Town and 40 centimeters at Mutsuogawara Port.

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A powerful magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck northern Japan late Monday night, prompting tsunami advisories and an unprecedented alert for a potential “mega quake” along the country’s Pacific coast.

The quake occurred at 11:15 p.m. off the eastern coast of Aomori Prefecture at a depth of 54 kilometers. Authorities initially issued tsunami warnings for Iwate Prefecture as well as coastal areas of Hokkaido and Aomori.

USGS has recorded the quakes magnitude at 7.6. However, Japanese officials have stated it was a 7.5 magnitude quake. 

At Kuji Port in Iwate, a 70-centimeter tsunami was recorded, while Hokkaido observed waves of 50 centimeters in Urakawa Town and 40 centimeters at Mutsuogawara Port.

As of 1:00 a.m., officials confirmed six injuries in Aomori, with residents hurt by falling objects or during attempts to evacuate. More than three hours after the quake, the tsunami warnings were downgraded to advisories, though authorities continue to urge residents to stay clear of the shoreline.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency has issued a rare alert warning that a much larger earthquake could follow. A potential mega quake—magnitude 8 or higher—could generate tsunamis along the Pacific coast from Hokkaido down to Chiba.

Residents in the affected areas have been urged to review evacuation routes, prepare emergency supplies, secure household furniture, and ensure access to food, water, and portable toilets. Officials say people along the Pacific coastline should remain on high alert for the next week, although no formal evacuation recommendation is currently in place.

This is the first time Japan has issued an alert under this category since it was created in 2022.

Morikubo Tsukasa, a disaster preparedness official with the Cabinet Office, said: “Based on global earthquake statistics, there is a possibility that a large-scale earthquake with a magnitude of 8 or higher could occur as a follow-up along the Japan Trench or Chishima Trench off Hokkaido. It is unclear whether such an event will happen, but everyone should take precautions to protect their lives.”

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