The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline is moving closer to its first commercial gas sales in Afghanistan after years of delays, with Herat expected to become the first Afghan market served by the project.

According to the Times of Central Asia, Turkmenistan plans to supply gas to Herat through the TAPI pipeline, while the timeline for extending the project to Pakistan and India remains uncertain.

The report says Turkmengaz and Afghan Gas signed a memorandum on August 10 covering the purchase of gas through TAPI. However, the agreement does not yet specify the price, supply volume or exact date for the start of commercial deliveries.

Afghan and Turkmen officials are also working to develop a gas distribution network in Herat to supply industrial facilities, power plants and households.

Meanwhile, Herat Governor Mawlavi Islam Jar recently said construction of the TAPI pipeline in the province is expected to be completed within two months.

According to the governor, Turkmen officials have completed their work on the project and will hand it over to Herat authorities once the remaining process is finalized.

Jar has also urged residents and factory owners in Herat’s industrial park to make the necessary preparations for the start of gas distribution and pipeline connections.

The TAPI project is designed to transport Turkmenistan’s natural gas through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India, with a planned annual capacity of 33 billion cubic meters.

Iran says reducing border and customs barriers is essential to increasing trade and economic exchanges with Afghanistan, as officials report a sharp rise in rail freight between the two countries.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said at a weekly press briefing that Tehran and Kabul have discussed ways to facilitate economic and commercial cooperation, particularly by reducing customs and border obstacles.

Baghaei said the issue was discussed during a meeting between Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs and Iran’s president. He added that important measures have since been placed on the agenda and that constructive exchanges have continued at the ministerial level.

The Iranian official expressed hope that the process would help increase bilateral trade and remove existing obstacles to the movement of goods between the two countries.

Meanwhile, Jabbar Ali Zakari, Iran’s deputy minister of roads and urban development and head of the country’s railway company, said rail freight between Iran and Afghanistan has increased significantly.

Zakari said less than 15,000 tonnes of goods were transported by rail between the two countries annually in the past, while the figure has now reached around 130,000 tonnes per month.

He said Iran expects the volume to reach approximately 1.5 million tonnes annually if the current trend continues.

Iranian officials say expanding railway links with Afghanistan and other regional countries could further strengthen trade, transit and connectivity between Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Five years after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) returned to power in Kabul, Afghanistan’s economic relationship with Pakistan is undergoing a structural shift. For Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, particularly Peshawar, the issue is increasingly one of industrial resilience and competitiveness.

The clearest evidence is Afghanistan’s transit trade through Pakistan. Container traffic reached a record 102,886 containers worth $6.7 billion in Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23), but fell to 54,114 in FY24 and 42,959 in FY25. In FY26, it collapsed to just 11,592 containers valued at $367 million, according to customs data cited by Dawn.

The figures indicate that Pakistan’s October 2025 border restrictions accelerated a decline that had already begun.

Afghanistan has increasingly diversified its trade routes, with Iran emerging as a major alternative. The World Bank’s Afghanistan Economic Monitor says the Iranian corridor has become a key part of the country’s import supply chain.

In FY25, Iran accounted for 31.3 percent of Afghan imports, while direct imports from Iran and goods transiting through Iran together represented 48.6 percent. Central Asian routes are also gaining importance.

For Pakistan, the loss extends beyond transit fees. It risks losing its traditional position as Afghanistan’s principal gateway to international markets.

The decline is also hitting businesses in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. For decades, Afghan demand supported manufacturers, wholesalers, transporters, clearing agents and warehouses linking Karachi’s ports with Peshawar and the border markets.

Cement, construction materials, food products, pharmaceuticals, textiles and consumer goods have traditionally found markets in Afghanistan. As Afghan orders decline, manufacturers face lower demand while already dealing with high energy, financing and transport costs, Dawn reported.

Agriculture is particularly vulnerable because fruits and vegetables cannot withstand prolonged border delays. In 2025, five southern Afghan provinces exported 44,225 tonnes of grapes worth $13.8 million, with nearly 43,000 tonnes going to Pakistan. So far in 2026, exports have fallen to just 256 tonnes valued at about $100,000, according to the Associated Press.

The disruption affects both sides of the border, including farmers, transporters, commission agents, wholesalers and retailers.

At the centre of the issue is the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, designed to give Afghanistan access to Pakistani seaports while offering Pakistan a potential trade corridor to Central Asia. But security concerns, smuggling, regulatory disputes and political tensions have steadily weakened the arrangement.

Pakistan has legitimate concerns about transit cargo being diverted into its domestic market, while Afghan traders face higher costs and uncertainty from additional requirements, inspections and border delays.

If alternative routes through Iran and Central Asia become commercially viable, traders have an incentive to establish new supply chains – and winning that business back could prove difficult.

The consequences are particularly serious for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where Peshawar’s commercial ecosystem has long depended on trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.

The Pak-Afghan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimates Pakistani exporters suffered around $225 million in losses over eight months this year because of restrictions and blockades. It puts annual Pakistani exports to Afghanistan at around $1.5 billion and exports to Central Asian markets through Afghanistan at about $800 million.

Pakistan therefore cannot treat the decline in Afghan transit trade solely as a security or diplomatic issue.