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Afghanistan’s contracted economy faces uncertainty: World Bank
The Afghan economy is expected to hover around no-growth territory this year, amid uncertainty after contracting by 25% since August 2021, while Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) restrictive policies on women’s education and work will further lower the country’s growth prospects, says the World Bank in a report released Tuesday.
The report titled Uncertainty After Fleeting Stability, shows how Afghanistan’s economic downturn has affected all sectors. Services, which make up 45% of the country’s GDP, shrank by 6.5% last year, following a staggering 30% drop in 2021. The agriculture sector, which accounts for 36% of GDP, declined by 6.6% in 2022 due to unfavorable weather conditions and farmers’ lack of resources to cope.
The industrial sector also saw a contraction of 5.7% last year, as businesses—especially those owned by women—faced closures due to limited access to resources and financial challenges. Following a record high in 2022, exports have been declining this year while imports remain robust, resulting in a growing trade deficit, the World Bank said.
Dampened demand, better supply conditions, and a stronger currency caused inflation to sharply decline from its 18.3% peak last July, leading to deflation since April 2023. Although deflation may initially increase real wages, prolonged deflation could stifle business growth and increase unemployment, the bank warned.
A potential reduction in international aid due to fiscal pressures in donor countries and the restrictive policies on women and girls pose risks to Afghanistan’s recovery, as do concerns about stability of the banking sector and dysfunctional payments system, the report said.
“Afghanistan’s economy is fragile, relies heavily on external support and its private sector is weak,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan. “To recover, the country needs to prioritize spending on human capital, basic services and climate resilience and address harmful gender policies.”
According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Welfare Monitoring Survey, also released Tuesday,one in two Afghans remain poor and recent gains in welfare have come at the cost of possibly exhausting all coping strategies and household resources.
Since the economic crash of 2021, households report an improvement in their capacity to meet basic needs, but deprivation and vulnerability remain high. Afghan households have mobilized extra labor to make ends meet, mainly among youth and women. The overall increase in labor supply has outpaced demand, doubling unemployment.
While improved security has increased primary school attendance and narrowed gender and rural-urban gaps, millions of primary-school-age girls and boys remain out of school mainly due to a lack of access. Since the ban on female secondary school attendance was imposed, only 3% of girls attend secondary school. Among boys aged 13-18, only 44% are receiving a secondary education, World Bank said.
“Afghanistan’s future growth potential hinges on improving human capital. What is happening to secondary education is a cause of grave concern,” added Good. “Almost no girls and less than half of the country’s boys are getting a secondary education. Where will the teachers and doctors of tomorrow come from? A country cannot grow if it willingly foregoes the potential of its citizens.”
A 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck Afghanistan on Saturday afternoon, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
The quake’s epicenter was reported in Jurm district of Badakhshan province, with a depth of 208.3 kilometers.
So far, there have been no immediate reports of casualties or damage following the tremor.
Shahabuddin Delawar, Head of the Commission for Contact with Afghan Personalities, says Afghanistan has achieved security, unified governance, brotherhood, and progress for the first time in 47 years under the administration of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).
Speaking at a meeting in Kabul on Saturday, Delawar said Afghanistan had lacked a unified system over the past four decades, but added that with the return of the Islamic Emirate, the issue has now been resolved.
Referring to Ashura commemorations held on Friday, he said the occasion was observed peacefully across the country under full security.
Delawar also urged exiled Afghan politicians to return, saying the commission was established to serve Afghans and address the concerns of returning figures. He added that any legal disputes involving returnees would be handled exclusively through the commission.
He further said the Islamic Emirate has expanded treatment centers and intensified anti-narcotics efforts since regaining power, claiming this has led to a significant decline in drug addiction.
Addressing the issue of international legitimacy, Delawar said he understood why the United States has not recognized the Islamic Emirate, arguing that Washington suffered a defeat in Afghanistan that it cannot easily overlook.
“They have suffered a major defeat that they cannot forget; if they recognize us, they will face questions from their own people,” Delawar said.
The European Union says it is implementing hundreds of millions of euros in projects to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Afghanistan and help expand economic opportunities across the country.
Speaking to Ariana News, EU Chargé d’Affaires in Kabul, Veronika Boskovic Pohar, said the programs are aimed at creating jobs for skilled workers, women, youth, and returnees, while also strengthening the private sector. She added that alongside international support, Afghan authorities also have a role in facilitating economic growth.
According to Pohar, the EU is currently implementing projects worth €156 million focused on livelihoods, durable solutions, job creation, and women’s economic empowerment. She said an additional €40 million program specifically designed to support returnees will be launched in the near future.
She noted that the EU is gradually shifting its focus from emergency humanitarian aid toward long-term sustainable solutions, particularly for internally displaced people and returnees in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the United Nations, marking World Day of Small and Medium Enterprises, said SMEs account for more than 90 percent of businesses worldwide and play a critical role in employment and economic growth.
UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric stressed that stronger investment, innovation, and sustainable industrial development are essential to help businesses withstand economic challenges and build resilient economies.
Afghan private sector representatives and economic analysts say greater support for SMEs could help the country address economic challenges faster, increase employment, and promote sustainable long-term development.
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