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Afghanistan’s contracted economy faces uncertainty: World Bank

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The Afghan economy is expected to hover around no-growth territory this year, amid uncertainty after contracting by 25% since August 2021, while Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) restrictive policies on women’s education and work will further lower the country’s growth prospects, says the World Bank in a report released Tuesday.

The report titled Uncertainty After Fleeting Stability, shows how Afghanistan’s economic downturn has affected all sectors. Services, which make up 45% of the country’s GDP, shrank by 6.5% last year, following a staggering 30% drop in 2021. The agriculture sector, which accounts for 36% of GDP, declined by 6.6% in 2022 due to unfavorable weather conditions and farmers’ lack of resources to cope.

The industrial sector also saw a contraction of 5.7% last year, as businesses—especially those owned by women—faced closures due to limited access to resources and financial challenges. Following a record high in 2022, exports have been declining this year while imports remain robust, resulting in a growing trade deficit, the World Bank said.

Dampened demand, better supply conditions, and a stronger currency caused inflation to sharply decline from its 18.3% peak last July, leading to deflation since April 2023. Although deflation may initially increase real wages, prolonged deflation could stifle business growth and increase unemployment, the bank warned.

A potential reduction in international aid due to fiscal pressures in donor countries and the restrictive policies on women and girls pose risks to Afghanistan’s recovery, as do concerns about stability of the banking sector and dysfunctional payments system, the report said.

“Afghanistan’s economy is fragile, relies heavily on external support and its private sector is weak,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan. “To recover, the country needs to prioritize spending on human capital, basic services and climate resilience and address harmful gender policies.”

According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Welfare Monitoring Survey, also released Tuesday,one in two Afghans remain poor and recent gains in welfare have come at the cost of possibly exhausting all coping strategies and household resources.

Since the economic crash of 2021, households report an improvement in their capacity to meet basic needs, but deprivation and vulnerability remain high. Afghan households have mobilized extra labor to make ends meet, mainly among youth and women. The overall increase in labor supply has outpaced demand, doubling unemployment.

While improved security has increased primary school attendance and narrowed gender and rural-urban gaps, millions of primary-school-age girls and boys remain out of school mainly due to a lack of access. Since the ban on female secondary school attendance was imposed, only 3% of girls attend secondary school. Among boys aged 13-18, only 44% are receiving a secondary education, World Bank said.

“Afghanistan’s future growth potential hinges on improving human capital. What is happening to secondary education is a cause of grave concern,” added Good. “Almost no girls and less than half of the country’s boys are getting a secondary education. Where will the teachers and doctors of tomorrow come from? A country cannot grow if it willingly foregoes the potential of its citizens.”

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Pakistan once again urges IEA to act against militants

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Pakistan’s foreign ministry on Thursday called on the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) to take visible and verifiable action against militants who, it said, enjoy sanctuaries inside Afghanistan.

“Terrorist threat against Pakistan from terrorist entities including TTP, BLA and ISKP is our foremost concern,” Shafqat Ali Khan, Pakistan’s foreign ministry spokesperson, said. “We continue to impress upon interim authorities to take visible and verifiable action against them, keeping in view their commitments given to the international community to dismantle terrorist infrastructure and groups from the Afghan soil.”

Regarding Afghan refugees, he confirmed that the deadline for their deportation remains unchanged. Pakistan had set March 31 as the deadline for Afghan Citizenship Card holders and illegal foreigners to leave Pakistan voluntarily. 

On border issues, Shafaqat Ali Khan informed that the Torkham border was reopened on Wednesday, with pedestrian travel allowed from Friday. The border will remain open until April 15, and a permanent solution is being sought. There won’t be any construction by Afghan side inside the Pakistani territory, he said.

On militancy, he said that Pakistan is taking robust actions, but it is impossible to completely seal off the border with Afghanistan.

IEA has previously rejected Pakistan’s claims that terrorists have sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

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We need contemporary sciences more than ever nowadays: Education Minister

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Acting Minister of Education Habibullah Agha says content contradicting religion and Afghan traditions will be removed from the curriculum, and that in addition to religious studies, the ministry is also focusing on modern sciences.

Marking the beginning of the 1404 academic year in Kabul, Habibullah Agha stressed that both religious and modern sciences are essential nowadays in Afghanistan.

He emphasized that the Islamic Emirate is committed to both fields of knowledge and urged people not to be deceived by negative propaganda.

“In this era, we have a great need to learn modern sciences. We must progress with these sciences and prepare ourselves to compete with the world,” said Agha.

He clarified that only through mastering modern sciences can the nation safeguard its people, government, health, and geography.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister for Administrative Affairs Abdul Salam Hanafi, who was also present at the event, reaffirmed the leadership’s commitment to fulfilling the Ministry of Education’s needs to establish a high-quality education system in Afghanistan.

Salam Hanafi stressed that the ministry must work to meet the country’s current educational demands.

He stated: “Enhancing teachers’ capabilities, addressing literacy issues, monitoring classroom activities, and improving the quality of both religious and public schools—these are the responsibilities of the Ministry of Education.”

Meanwhile, several government officials claimed that despite efforts by adversaries to tarnish the reputation of the IEA through a ‘cold war’, Afghanistan continues to make progress every day.

The 1404 academic year however began without reopening schools for girls above the sixth grade.

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IEA confirms it has freed an American prisoner in a gesture of goodwill

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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) announced on Thursday it released an American prisoner named George Glezmann as a gesture of goodwill.

According to a statement, the ministry stated that the IEA “reaffirms its longstanding position that dialogue, understanding and diplomacy provide effective avenues for resolving all issues, with the release of American citizen serving as a goodwill gesture, reflecting Afghanistan’s readiness to genuinely engage all sides, particularly the United States of America, based on mutual respect and interests.”

The ministry also asserted that destabilizing groups like Daesh have been suppressed and that no threats originate from Afghanistan against any country.

According to the statement, Afghanistan can play a positive role in regional and global stability and is capable of resolving its issues with the international community in a constructive manner.

The ministry also expressed gratitude to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar for their key role in facilitating this development and mediating between the Islamic Emirate and the United States.

Washington’s former special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad said Thursday after meeting with Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister that today
“was a good day”.

He said talks with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi led to the release of Glezmann, who had been in detention in Kabul for two years.

“The Taliban (IEA) government agreed to free him as a goodwill gesture,” he said, adding that Glezmann is on his way home.

He also stated that President Donald Trump has made it a priority to secure the release of Americans held abroad.

The American delegation meanwhile also included Adam Boehler, the US Special Representative for Hostage Affairs, as well as Khalilzad.

After their meeting, Muttaqi described the visit by the delegation as a step forward in relations between Kabul and Washington.

The foreign ministry in turn said the discussions focused on bilateral relations, prisoner exchanges, and consular services for Afghan citizens in the US.

Muttaqi called the meeting a positive step toward improving relations and emphasized that the Islamic Emirate seeks constructive engagement with all parties as part of its balanced foreign policy.

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