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IAEA chief says Iran’s nuclear enrichment activity remains high

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Iran continues to enrich uranium well beyond the needs for commercial nuclear use despite U.N. pressure to stop it, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday, adding he wanted to visit Tehran next month for the first time in a year to end the “drifting apart”.

Speaking to Reuters after he briefed EU foreign ministers on the subject, the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said that while the pace of uranium enrichment had slowed slightly since the end of last year, Iran was still enriching at an elevated rate of around 7 kg of uranium per month to 60% purity, Reuters reported.

Enrichment to 60% brings uranium close to weapons grade, and is not necessary for commercial use in nuclear power production. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons but no other state has enriched to that level without producing them.

Under a defunct 2015 agreement with world powers, Iran can enrich uranium only to 3.67%. After then-President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of that deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions, Iran breached and moved well beyond the deal’s nuclear restrictions.

Between June and November last year, Iran slowed down the enrichment to 3 kg per month, but jumped back up to a rate of 9 kg at the end of the year, the watchdog, known as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), previously reported.

The increase came soon after Tehran barred a third of the IAEA’s core inspections team, including the most experienced, from taking part in agreed monitoring of the enrichment process, read the report.

“This slowdown, speedup thing is like a cycle that for me does not alter the fundamental trend, which is a trend of constant increase in inventory of highly enriched uranium,” said Grossi.

A spokesperson for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation was not immediately available for comment.

The IAEA warned at the end of 2023 that Tehran already had enough material to make three nuclear bombs if it enriches the material now at 60% to beyond 60%.

“There is a concerning rhetoric, you may have heard high officials in Iran saying they have all the elements for a nuclear weapon lately,” Grossi said.

He said the concern was all the higher because of what he termed current circumstances in the Middle East, a reference to tensions over Israel’s war with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.

“We seem to be drifting apart… Iran says they are not getting incentives from the West, but I find this logic very complicated to understand because they should work with us… It should never be contingent on economic or other incentives.”

Before visiting Tehran, Grossi is to fly to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Iran and the Middle East, along with Ukraine.

Russia is a signatory of the 2015 deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), alongside the U.S., China, France, Britain and Germany. The deal lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear activities.

“Russia has a role to play on Iran. It has played a role in the past as a JCPOA country and in the current circumstances where JCPOA is all but disintegrated, something must fill the void,” he said.

Grossi said he saw a decrease in military operations around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe, Reuters reported.

Fears of a serious nuclear incident were high when Russian forces took over the facility in 2022 and again following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam last year.

“There hasn’t been a militarization, any deployment of heavy artillery,” he said, adding that nearby combat zones and recurring blackouts remained a worry.

“The minimum staff required to look after the plant in the current situation is there,” he said.

Grossi said the minimum staffing was still met despite about 100 members refusing to sign a new contract with Russia’s Rosatom that took over operations of the idled plant in 2022.

The EU has so far held back on sanctioning Russia’s state-owned nuclear firm Rosatom or any of its subsidiaries despite numerous calls to target that industry. Europe still relies heavily on Rosatom which supplies nearly 50% of the world’s enriched uranium.

“Many companies in the West depend on Russian supplies – enriched uranium or fuel… The consensus is sanctioning Rosatom would not be realistic and it’s impractical. It would put the nuclear industry at a standstill in many countries,” Grossi said.

Reducing dependence on Russia’s nuclear sector would cost Europe billions, Grossi said, and he saw no immediate shift away. He added that the larger issue was infrastructure and incentives, and projections of rising uranium demand globally.

“Frankly, I see an increased presence of Russian uranium enrichment capabilities in the world rather than a decrease,” he said.

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Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US concessions on several demands

Araqchi said reopening ​the strait would depend in part on the U.S. paying compensation for damage it caused in widespread attacks on Iran.

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Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes between them through the Strait of Hormuz ​but repeated that the U.S. must meet other conditions, including compensation and an end to sanctions and military threats, before the strategic waterway is reopened.

A U.S. official told ‌Reuters on Friday that Iran and Oman were close to a deal that could pave the way for restoring safe passage through the strait, a major conduit for oil and gas shipping before Iran blocked Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on Tehran that began in late February, Reuters reported.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday an agreement with Oman on the strait was in its “final stages” but reiterated comments made on Saturday that Tehran would not reopen the ​channel unless the U.S. met certain demands made by Tehran.

The deal with Iran would set out the new shipping lanes to be used once the U.S. fulfils those conditions ​and the strait is reopened, Iran’s Mehr news agency quoted him as saying.

Iran and the U.S. are not engaged in direct talks, and Tehran will ⁠not start them as long as Washington breaches an interim deal signed in June, Araqchi said, adding that messages were being exchanged through intermediaries.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with ​Axios that the U.S. was “low-keying” it with Iran. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”

CONDITIONS INCLUDE COMPENSATION

Araqchi said reopening ​the strait would depend in part on the U.S. paying compensation for damage it caused in widespread attacks on Iran.

The secretary of Iran’s top national security body, Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, also listed ending further U.S. threats against Iran; halting aggression toward Iran and its Lebanese, Palestinian, Yemeni and Iraqi allies; removing a U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf; lifting sanctions on Iran; and releasing frozen Iranian assets.

The United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran more than ​five months ago. Trump has said the attacks were aimed at keeping the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons and degrading its ability to threaten the region.

Washington and Tehran agreed to a ​ceasefire in June, but the U.S. reimposed a blockade on Iranian shipping in the Gulf in July, a move that Tehran said violated the truce, which by then had already broken down.

“Once the deal is announced to ‌restore commercial shipping ⁠without impediments, the United States will lift the blockade of Iranian ports,” the U.S. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

U.S. actions would be tied to Iran’s implementation of its commitments, the official said.

The U.S. comments indicated delicate sequencing toward a deal that sources had told Reuters appeared to be set to give Tehran control over vessel traffic entering the Gulf through the strait, which shippers have said was not easily workable.

The United Arab Emirates said on Saturday that Iran had attacked a ship affiliated with its state oil company. There was no immediate comment from Iran, whose Revolutionary Guard Corps previously has ​attacked ships that it said tried to cross the ​strait without Iranian permission.

HOUTHI ATTACKS

Iranian strikes on ⁠Strait of Hormuz shipping have been coupled with increased attacks by its Yemen-based allies, the Houthi rebels, who have targeted ships at another oil chokepoint on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis also declared a naval blockade against Saudi ​Arabia in the Red Sea last month in response to what they said was a Saudi siege on them in Yemen, an allegation denied ​by Riyadh, which backs ⁠Yemen’s internationally recognised government.

The Yemeni rebel group said they had attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on Sunday, two days after the kingdom signed a defence pact with Sunni Muslim allies Turkey and Pakistan in response to growing regional instability from the U.S.-Israeli war on Shi’ite Iran.

The Saudi energy ministry said a fire had broken out at the refinery but was later extinguished with no injuries, without giving a cause.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan ⁠said the ​new alliance was not directed against Iran or any other country, but rather served as a general pledge to support ​security.

Fighting has escalated between the Houthis and government forces in Yemen, with the Yemeni military on Monday saying seven people including military personnel and civilians were killed in a Houthi attack on the Red Sea port city of Mocha.

Air defences ​intercepted and shot down 11 Houthi drones that participated in the attack, the military said.

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Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia defence pact technically same as NATO’s Article 5, Turkish minister says

Fidan also said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wanted to see the alliance expand, and that Egypt was a potential candidate to ​join, among others.

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A defence pact signed between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is ‌technically the same as NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence agreement, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday, adding the accord was not targeting Iran.

Fidan also said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wanted to see the alliance expand, and that Egypt was a potential candidate to ​join, among others.

The regional powers signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” on Friday, wedding Sunni Muslim U.S. allies alarmed ​at a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters.

In a ⁠joint statement, they said the accord intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and stipulates ​that an armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all.

Speaking to the ​state-run Anadolu news agency, Fidan said the new alliance was not directed against Iran or any other country, but rather served as a general pledge to support the three allies’ security.

He added that the allies would decide through consultations what degree, form, and format of ​support they would ask for in the event of an attack, but that no country would be considered a ​threat as long as a member state is not attacked.

Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army, has said the pact was open ‌to ⁠expansion to other regional countries and did not seek to replace any existing alliances.

“NATO is a giant military alliance where there are 32 countries. We have started here as three countries and we have to take very humble but concrete steps,” he said, adding efforts to finalise the pact had been underway for two years and eight months.

He ​added that a committee ​of ministers similar to that ⁠within NATO would be formed as part of the alliance, as well as a general secretariat based in Saudi Arabia, but that operational details would be set at ​the first committee meeting.

“Our president’s vision is that we don’t remain limited to three ​countries, that ⁠we grow and bring together all (regional) countries under this roof,” he said, adding Egypt could potentially join the pact once certain technical matters are resolved.

In recent months, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt formed a group to address regional issues, ⁠namely the ​war on Iran. Turkey has said the group – dubbed the R4 – ​aims to solidify its partnership through concrete mechanisms.

Fidan also said Turkey should be involved in an international coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea ​from Houthi attacks because shipping safety concerned Ankara’s interests.

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Goods transporters to go on strike from Saturday after talks with Pakistan govt fail

However, the minister has assured the transporters that he would discuss their demands, and the next round of talks would be held on Monday morning.

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Goods transporters and oil tanker operators began suspending their services on Friday night after negotiations with the Pakistani government failed, ahead of their nationwide wheel-jam strike scheduled for Saturday.

All Pakistan Goods Transport Itehad spokesman and All Pakistan Goods Transport Owners Association President Mohammad Owais Chaudhry Advocate told Dawn that talks with Federal Minister for Communications Aleem Khan and other government officials had failed.

He said the negotiations ended without a breakthrough, prompting transporters, including edible oil tanker operators, petroleum oil tanker operators, truckers, trailer operators and other intercity transporters, to proceed with their previously announced strike.

“We have informed the government side about the problems we are facing and our concerns,” Chaudhry said, adding that the strike would continue until their demands were accepted.

However, the minister has assured the transporters that he would discuss their demands, and the next round of talks would be held on Monday morning.

The unified body of transporters had already announced that it would begin its wheel-jam strike from August 8, and warned that it would not be a token strike but an indefinite one.

“Commercial goods carriers across the country have already been taken off the roads and will remain stationed at designated places during the protest period,” Chaudhry said.

Among the key demands of the transporters is the uniform enforcement of axle-load limits across the country and permission for 10-wheel vehicles to carry up to 35 tonnes.

They have also demanded reductions in diesel prices and toll taxes, besides seeking relief in withholding tax to ease the financial burden on the transport sector.

The transporters have also called for the withdrawal of customs provisions that, according to the association, allow authorities to confiscate vehicles carrying goods found to be in violation of customs laws.

Other demands include the withdrawal of the Punjab Highway Patrol’s powers to issue challans to commercial vehicles, an end to what the association described as unnecessary challans and excessive fines on motorways and highways, and measures to facilitate the issuance of heavy transport vehicle licences to drivers.

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