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ICG spells out US policy challenges involving peace talks and Taliban
While peace talks present an opportunity for the US to extricate itself from a decades-old conflict in Afghanistan, they will also pose one of the greatest foreign policy challenges for the Biden administration, the International Crisis Group reported in its latest briefing this week.
The ICG stated that after the February 2020 deal between the US and the Taliban, peace talks took six months to start – and have only inched forward slightly. According to the group in light of this, “it is far from clear where negotiations are headed.”
The group pointed out that in accordance with the agreement, the US agreed to withdraw international forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban cutting ties with terrorist organizations, reducing violence and entering negotiations with Afghanistan.
But while violence levels have remained high, it has also emerged that there are wide divergences among negotiating parties on substantive issues and the Taliban are resistant to scaling back attacks while talks proceed, the group’s briefing read.
“At the moment, discussions are virtually stalled while the parties wait for signals from the new US administration on its commitment, or lack thereof, to the nascent peace process.”
The ICG stated that a political settlement is the best solution and that there is a path open to achieving this – albeit a narrow path.
They urged the Biden administration however to urgently signal its commitment to continue supporting the peace process.
The group stated: “President Biden has little to lose in continuing to test the feasibility of reaching a political settlement. Conversely, an abandonment of negotiations would incur high costs: the likely return of the Taliban to unrestricted warfare (including targeting US personnel), as well as the loss of at least tacit support for US policy from Iran, Pakistan, Russia, China and other neighbours.”
But with this in mind, the ICG said the Biden administration will need to seek an extension to the troop withdrawal deadline.
“This is not enough time for the new administration to set its policy course and evaluate Taliban compliance with the counter-terrorism assurances it provided in the February deal.
“Nor is it sufficient time for the Afghan parties – who, for instance, spent three months negotiating a brief set of procedural rules for talks – to notch any meaningful agreements,” the group stated in its briefing.
They suggested this be extended by at least six months – also as the new administration needs to establish a regional diplomatic framework to support the peace process and the outcome of any peace settlement.
ICG pointed out that the new Biden administration also needs to determine whether it intends to maintain an indefinite, if small, military presence in Afghanistan for counter-terrorism purposes.
“A decision in favour of a persistent military presence would, at some point, be the death knell of the peace process because the Taliban are unlikely to consent to it,” ICG stated.
In addition, Russia, China and Iran would reject a continued US presence and could take steps to complicate it, the group stated.
“For Biden to keep troops in Afghanistan under those circumstances would make his administration the author of the next chapter of the so-called forever wars that began after the 11 September attacks, which will enter their third decade later this year,” the group stated.
However, it was suggested that the Biden administration’s top priority should be to keep the peace process going and buy the time it will need to face the decisions coming its way.
Shahabuddin Delawar, Head of the Commission for Contact with Afghan Personalities, says Afghanistan has achieved security, unified governance, brotherhood, and progress for the first time in 47 years under the administration of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).
Speaking at a meeting in Kabul on Saturday, Delawar said Afghanistan had lacked a unified system over the past four decades, but added that with the return of the Islamic Emirate, the issue has now been resolved.
Referring to Ashura commemorations held on Friday, he said the occasion was observed peacefully across the country under full security.
Delawar also urged exiled Afghan politicians to return, saying the commission was established to serve Afghans and address the concerns of returning figures. He added that any legal disputes involving returnees would be handled exclusively through the commission.
He further said the Islamic Emirate has expanded treatment centers and intensified anti-narcotics efforts since regaining power, claiming this has led to a significant decline in drug addiction.
Addressing the issue of international legitimacy, Delawar said he understood why the United States has not recognized the Islamic Emirate, arguing that Washington suffered a defeat in Afghanistan that it cannot easily overlook.
“They have suffered a major defeat that they cannot forget; if they recognize us, they will face questions from their own people,” Delawar said.
The European Union says it is implementing hundreds of millions of euros in projects to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Afghanistan and help expand economic opportunities across the country.
Speaking to Ariana News, EU Chargé d’Affaires in Kabul, Veronika Boskovic Pohar, said the programs are aimed at creating jobs for skilled workers, women, youth, and returnees, while also strengthening the private sector. She added that alongside international support, Afghan authorities also have a role in facilitating economic growth.
According to Pohar, the EU is currently implementing projects worth €156 million focused on livelihoods, durable solutions, job creation, and women’s economic empowerment. She said an additional €40 million program specifically designed to support returnees will be launched in the near future.
She noted that the EU is gradually shifting its focus from emergency humanitarian aid toward long-term sustainable solutions, particularly for internally displaced people and returnees in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the United Nations, marking World Day of Small and Medium Enterprises, said SMEs account for more than 90 percent of businesses worldwide and play a critical role in employment and economic growth.
UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric stressed that stronger investment, innovation, and sustainable industrial development are essential to help businesses withstand economic challenges and build resilient economies.
Afghan private sector representatives and economic analysts say greater support for SMEs could help the country address economic challenges faster, increase employment, and promote sustainable long-term development.
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Afghan women’s situation highlighted at SCO Forum amid ongoing global debate
She urged member states of the SCO to show solidarity with Afghan women and not remain indifferent to their situation.
Afghanistan was at the center of discussions at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Women’s Forum in Bishkek, where former head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Roza Otunbayeva, described the situation of women in the country as a serious human rights concern.
Speaking at the forum, Otunbayeva said restrictions imposed on women and girls in Afghanistan demonstrate how a return to conservative policies can rapidly affect women’s daily lives and opportunities.
Otunbayeva, who previously served as head of UNAMA in Afghanistan, stated: “Today in Afghanistan, girls cannot receive education beyond sixth grade. Women are prohibited from working, visiting parks and gyms, and traveling without a male companion.”
She urged member states of the SCO to show solidarity with Afghan women and not remain indifferent to their situation.
According to her, women in Afghanistan urgently need support in education, employment, and social participation, and these issues should be addressed at both regional and international levels.
Her remarks come at a time when the situation of women in Afghanistan remains a subject of ongoing international debate.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has repeatedly stated that women’s rights in the country are ensured better than ever before.
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