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Climate Change

Study finds that climate change added 10% to Ian’s rainfall

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Climate change added at least 10% more rain to Hurricane Ian, a study prepared immediately after the storm shows.

Thursday’s research, which is not peer-reviewed, compared peak rainfall rates during the real storm to about 20 different computer scenarios of a model with Hurricane Ian’s characteristics slamming into the Sunshine State in a world with no human-caused climate change, AP reported.

“The real storm was 10% wetter than the storm that might have been,” said Lawrence Berkeley National Lab climate scientist Michael Wehner, study co-author.

Forecasters predicted Ian will have dropped up to two feet (61 centimeters) of rain in parts of Florida by the time it stopped.

Wehner and Kevin Reed, an atmospheric scientist at Stony Brook University, published a study in Nature Communications earlier this year looking at the hurricanes of 2020 and found during their rainiest three-hour periods they were more than 10% wetter than in a world without greenhouse gases trapping heat. Wehner and Reed applied the same scientifically accepted attribution technique to Hurricane Ian.

A long-time rule of physics is that for every extra degree of warmth Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), the air in the atmosphere can hold 7% more water. This week the Gulf of Mexico was 0.8 degrees warmer than normal, which should have meant about 5% more rain. Reality turned out to be even worse. The flash study found the hurricane dropped double that — 10% more rain.

Ten percent may not sound like a lot, but 10% of 20 inches is two inches, which is a lot of rain, especially on top of the 20 inches that already fell, Reed said.

Other studies have seen the same feedback mechanisms of stronger storms in warmer weather, said Princeton University atmospheric scientist Gabriel Vecchi, who wasn’t part of the study.

MIT hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel said in general, a warmer world does make storms rainier. But he said he is uncomfortable drawing conclusions about individual storms.

“This business above very very heavy rain is something we’ve expected to see because of climate change,” he said. “We’ll see more storms like Ian.”

Princeton’s Vecchi said in an email that if the world is going to bounce back from disasters “we need to plan for wetter storms going forward, since global warming isn’t going to go away.”

Climate Change

2024 was the first year above 1.5C of global warming, scientists say

Last year was the world’s hottest since records began, and each of the past ten years was among the ten warmest on record.

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The world just experienced the first full year in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial times, scientists said on Friday.

The milestone was confirmed by the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which said climate change is pushing the planet's temperature to levels never before experienced by modern humans, Reuters reported.

"The trajectory is just incredible," C3S director Carlo Buontempo told Reuters, describing how every month in 2024 was the warmest or second-warmest for that month since records began.

The planet's average temperature in 2024 was 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than in 1850-1900, the "pre-industrial period" before humans began burning CO2-emitting fossil fuels on a large scale, C3S said.

Last year was the world's hottest since records began, and each of the past ten years was among the ten warmest on record.

Britain's Met Office confirmed 2024's likely breach of 1.5C, while estimating a slightly lower average temperature of 1.53C for the year. U.S. scientists will also publish their 2024 climate data on Friday.

Governments promised under the 2015 Paris Agreement to try to prevent average temperatures exceeding 1.5C, to avoid more severe and costly climate disasters.

The first year above 1.5C does not breach that target, which measures the longer-term average temperature. Buontempo said rising greenhouse gas emissions meant the world was on track to soon also blow past the Paris goal - but that it was not too late for countries to rapidly cut emissions to avoid warming rising further to disastrous levels.

"It's not a done deal. We have the power to change the trajectory from now on," Buontempo said.

The impacts of climate change are now visible on every continent, affecting people from the richest to the poorest countries on earth.

Wildfires raging in California this week have killed at least five people and destroyed hundreds of homes. In 2024, Bolivia and Venezuela also suffered disastrous fires, while torrential floods hit Nepal, Sudan and Spain, and heatwaves in Mexico and Saudi Arabia killed thousands.

Climate change is worsening storms and torrential rainfall, because a hotter atmosphere can hold more water, leading to intense downpours. The amount of water vapour in the planet's atmosphere reached a record high in 2024.

But even as the costs of these disasters spiral, political will to invest in curbing emissions has waned in some countries.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, has called climate change a hoax, despite the global scientific consensus that it is human-caused and will have severe consequences if not addressed.

The U.S. experienced 24 climate and weather disasters in 2024 in which the cost of damages exceeded $1 billion, including Hurricanes Milton and Helene, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Chukwumerije Okereke, a professor of global climate governance at Britain's University of Bristol, said the 1.5C milestone should serve as "a rude awakening to key political actors to get their act together".

"Despite all the warnings that scientists have given, nations... are continuing to fail to live up to their responsibilities," he told Reuters.

Concentrations in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, reached a fresh high of 422 parts per million in 2024, C3S said.

Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at U.S. non-profit Berkeley Earth, said he expected 2025 to be among the hottest years on record, but likely not top the rankings.

"It's still going to be in the top three warmest years," he said.

That's because while the biggest factor warming the climate is human-caused emissions, temperatures in early 2024 got an extra boost from El Nino, a warming weather pattern which is now trending towards its cooler La Nina counterpart.

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Climate Change

Parts of US blanketed by heaviest snowfall in a decade

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm. Similar declarations were issued in Kansas, Maryland, West Virginia and in central Illinois cities

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A massive storm packing heavy snowfalls, treacherous ice and severe weather unleashed its fury across more than a dozen states over the weekend, and may cause "highway chaos" in the central parts of the US on Monday, meteorologists warned.

The National Weather Service predicted about 20 to 30 centimeters of snow for the Annapolis, Maryland, area.

In a statement on X, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm and encouraged residents to vote before the state’s special elections on Tuesday.

Similar declarations were issued in Kansas, Maryland, West Virginia and in central Illinois cities.

Parts of upstate New York saw one meter or more of snow from a lake effect event until late Sunday afternoon.

In Kentucky, Louisville recorded 19.5 centimeters of snow on Sunday, a new record for the date that shattered the previous mark of 7.6 centimeters set in 1910.

Lexington, Kentucky, also set a snowfall record, with 12.7 centimeters.

The storm was forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and reach the Mid-Atlantic states later Sunday and Monday, with a hard freeze expected as far south as Florida.

Virginia State Police reported at least 135 car crashes as the storm entered the state Sunday. A handful of injuries were reported.

In Charleston, West Virginia, where several inches of snow had fallen by Sunday night, authorities urged motorists to stay home.

The Kanawha County Sheriff’s Office said deputies were responding to crashes and 911 calls countywide. “Please be patient if you have called 911 for assistance. A deputy will call you or respond to you as soon as possible,” the sheriff’s office said in a statement.

In Indiana, snow fully covered portions numerous roads and highways prompting Indiana State Police to plead with motorists to stay off the roads.

“It’s snowing so hard, the snow plows go through and then within a half hour the roadways are completely covered again,” Sgt. Todd Ringle said.

Roughly 25 centimeters of snow had fallen in parts of Kansas, with snow and sleet totals predicted to top 36 centimeter for parts of that state and northern Missouri.

Meanwhile damaging winds brought down trees across the Deep South. The weather service issued tornado warnings Sunday in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

The storms caused havoc for the nation’s passenger railways. More than 20 cancellations were planned on Sunday, 40 for Monday and at least two for Tuesday.

“If local authorities are telling people not to travel, it’s counterintuitive to try to run a full slate of services when people are being told to stay home,” Amtrak spokesperson Marc Magliari said.

The Midwest was hit especially hard. A train between Chicago and New York and several regional trains between Chicago and St. Louis were among those canceled Sunday.

Nearly 200 flights in and out of St. Louis Lambert International Airport were canceled, according to tracking platform FlightAware.

Starting Monday, the eastern two-thirds of the country will experience dangerous, bone-chilling cold and wind chills, forecasters said.

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Climate Change

Kandahar’s Takhtapul district hit hard by ongoing drought

Afghanistan has experienced three consecutive years of drought, including the most devastating drought in 30 years in 2021 and 2022.

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Residents of Takhtapul district of Afghanistan’s Kandahar province say they are struggling to survive amid an ongoing drought that has devastated their crops.

This rural community mainly relies on agriculture to survive but climate change has virtually ended any hopes of farming.

Afghanistan has experienced three consecutive years of drought, including the most devastating drought in 30 years in 2021 and 2022.

Climate experts predict that by 2050, 90% of its territory will be affected by drought.

Afghanistan is one of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change. It's also ranked fourth in overall disaster risk.

Takhtapul residents have spoken out about their plight and said they have sustained extensive losses due to the drought

They said in the past they had made a living off farming, but now due to the severe lack of water, their land has become barren.

They also said this is forcing their youth and younger generation to find work in other provinces or outside the country.

Abdullah, a resident of Takhtapul district of Kandahar, said: "Our youths have gone to Pakistan and other provinces in search of work due to unemployment and drought. There they have wheelbarrows [for day labourer work] or they do other jobs."

On the other hand, local officials say that they are trying to reduce unemployment by launching development projects in this district.

Along with droughts and lack of work for young people, the breakdown of roads, lack of health centers and lack of suitable places for education are among the problems that the residents of this district want to solve.

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