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Ukraine war, absence of Putin and Xi set to dent G20 summit

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Deeper and more entrenched divisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine risk derailing progress on issues such as food security, debt distress and global cooperation on climate change when the world’s most powerful nations meet this weekend in New Delhi.

The hardened stance on the war has prevented agreement on even a single communique at the 20 or so ministerial meetings of the G20 during India’s presidency this year, leaving it to the leaders to find a way around, if possible, Reuters reported.

But China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang, not President Xi Jinping, while Russia has confirmed President Vladimir Putin’s absence, suggesting that neither nation is likely to join any consensus.

That means the two-day summit from September 9 will be dominated by the West and its allies. The G20 leaders who will attend include U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman and Japan’s Fumio Kishida.

A failed summit would expose the limits of cooperation between Western and non-Western powers, and prompt countries to double down on the groups they are more comfortable with, analysts said.

To tackle global threats “breaking off into Western and non-Western blocs isn’t what you want,” said Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.

Failing to forge a consensus will also hurt the diplomatic credentials of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is using the presidency to bolster New Delhi’s position as economic powerhouse and a leader of the global south.

“If the leaders’ summit is a flop, New Delhi and especially Modi will have suffered a major diplomatic, and political, setback,” Kugelman said.

India, which has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will have to either convince the bloc to agree to a joint statement – the so-called Leaders Declaration – or allow its presidency to be the first to end without such a communique since 2008.

“The positions have hardened since the Bali Summit,” a senior Indian government official told Reuters, referring to the 2022 summit held in Indonesia. “Russia and China have toughened their position since then, a consensus would be very hard.”

In Bali, Indonesian President Joko Widodo clinched a last minute joint statement from the bloc. India is hoping that the leaders can again work something out at the last minute, another government official said.

The Bali Leaders’ Declaration said “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.”

It also said that “there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.”

Another Indian official said that in Bali, “Russia and China were more flexible.” But as the war completes 18 months, countries “are not agreeing even to the language used in the Bali Declaration”.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who will come in place of Putin, have already drawn battlelines.

Trudeau, while confirming that he will travel to India for the meeting in a call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said that he was disappointed that the Ukrainian president was not invited.

“As you know, we will be speaking up strongly for you, and we will continue to make sure that the world is standing with Ukraine,” Trudeau said in the call with Zelenskiy.

Lavrov said last week Russia will block the final declaration of the G20 summit unless it reflects Moscow’s position on Kyiv and other crises. Diplomats said any acceptance of Moscow’s stance was highly improbable, and the summit would most likely end up issuing a non-binding or partial communique.

Last month, the BRICS group of nations, where China is the heavyweight, added half a dozen more countries to the bloc in a push to reshuffle a world order it sees as outdated.

“Xi’s absence may be Beijing’s attempt to put a nail in the G20’s coffin, only weeks after expanding the BRICS organization which is more aligned with China’s world view,” said David Boling, director at consulting firm Eurasia Group.

India is a member of BRICS, along with Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa, and had some concerns about the bloc’s expansion earlier. But at the summit in Johannesburg last month, it joined a consensus on the criteria for new entrants.

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Israel, Lebanon sign initial agreement after US-mediated talks

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement allows Israeli forces to continue to occupy southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not disarm.

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Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington on Friday following several days of talks to secure an end to fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollahmilitants, though ‌both sides framed the deal as an initial step, Reuters reported.

Lebanese Ambassador Nada Moawad and her Israeli counterpart Yechiel Leiter signed the trilateral document with the U.S. at the State Department in Washington, providing few details.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement allows Israeli forces to continue to occupy southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not disarm.

“Today we’ve taken the first step in what will be a difficult journey, without a doubt, but an important and an essential ​and a necessary one,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said before the agreement was inked.

In a later statement he said that the U.S. would facilitate the implementation of ​the deal through a trilateral “Military Coordination Group for Lebanon” and that Washington would commit significant resources, including an immediate $100 million in humanitarian assistance in ⁠coordination with the U.N.

Rubio added that the U.S. reaffirmed its intent to improve the capabilities of the Lebanese Armed Forces “to more effectively establish sovereignty throughout Lebanese territory” with more than $30 million in funds ​under existing U.S. authorities and appropriations.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah broke out when the armed group fired at Israel on March 2, days after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. The Hezbollah ​attacks triggered Israeli air and ground attacks that have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon and displaced more than a million.

Lebanon’s Moawad also called it a “first step” on the road to restoring Lebanese sovereignty.

“Iran is out, Hezbollah is out, and the road to peace between Israel and Lebanon is in,” Leiter said.

Netanyahu said in a statement that the deal would also allow the Lebanese army “to begin organizing to take control of territory,” starting with ​what he described as two “pilot zones” from which Israeli troops would withdraw from land they occupied during the war.

Israel describes that territory as a “security zone” or “buffer zone” where its troops can thwart ​Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the agreement should allow Lebanese to return to “fully liberated” land and rebuilt homes with “no partner” in its sovereignty.

Israel’s death toll from this round of hostilities with Hezbollah ‌includes at least ⁠32 soldiers and four Israeli civilians. Hezbollah does not release figures on its war dead. Reuters reported on May 4 that several thousand Hezbollah fighters had been killed in the war.

A State Department official told Reuters on Thursday that Israel had agreed to pull back from some of the territory it has occupied, something Israeli and Lebanese officials denied.

Before the talks resumed this week, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt fire even as Israel kept troops in southern Lebanon.

Violence has persisted since the ceasefire, with Israel saying on Friday its troops had struck and killed what the military described as seven ​Hezbollah members who were operating near the territory ​it is occupying. Reuters could not confirm ⁠this.

“To the degree that the Lebanese army performs in dismantling and disarming Hezbollah, we will proceed with additional pilot zones and the ultimate determination of an internationally recognized, secure, and agreed upon border,” Leiter told reporters after the signing.

Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said Lebanese authorities would not be ​able to enforce the agreement unless, with U.S. support, “they go to civil war,” pro-Iranian broadcaster Al Mayadeen reported, read the report.

Hezbollah would confront any measure taken ​by Lebanese authorities and ⁠would hold on to its weapons even more, adding that the group’s opposition was “serious” and would not allow authorities to implement their commitments on the ground, Fadlallah said.

Israeli forces dropped leaflets over the southern Lebanese town of Mansouri on Friday ordering residents to leave, Lebanese state media reported, the first such order issued since the latest ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect.

A senior Lebanese military ⁠official said Israel ​had recently added Mansouri to its occupation zone. The official said Lebanese farmers had continued to enter and leave ​the town, but had not been living there.

An Israeli military spokesperson said the military issued what it described as a “reminder” to the civilian population that “the area is within the security zone in which (Israeli) soldiers operate. It’s a reminder not to be ​in the area so they won’t be harmed.”

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Venezuela earthquake death toll rises to 188 as rescue efforts continue

According to officials, 138 aftershocks have been recorded since the twin 7.2- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes struck late Wednesday, causing widespread destruction.

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The death toll from the powerful earthquakes that struck Venezuela’s northern Caribbean coast has risen to 188, authorities confirmed on Thursday, as emergency crews continue search and rescue operations.

Jorge Rodriguez, President of Venezuela’s National Assembly, said 1,520 people have been hospitalized with injuries, while 157 people remain missing. Rescue teams are still searching for more than 200 people believed to be trapped beneath collapsed buildings.

According to officials, 138 aftershocks have been recorded since the twin 7.2- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes struck late Wednesday, causing widespread destruction.

Rodriguez said 346 infrastructure sites sustained damage, including 250 buildings, 20 shopping centers, and eight hospitals, forcing authorities to transfer patients to other medical facilities.

The Venezuelan government has announced the establishment of a $200 million emergency reconstruction fund to support the rebuilding of damaged homes, hospitals, and other critical infrastructure.

Following the disaster, Acting President Delcy Rodriguez declared a national state of emergency, while tsunami warnings were issued across parts of the Caribbean region after the powerful earthquakes.

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Rescue work underway after quakes rock Venezuela, ‘high casualties’ likely

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Strong earthquakes struck west of Venezuela’s capital on Wednesday afternoon, toppling buildings in Caracas, trapping people in the rubble and prompting scientists to warn of potentially heavy casualties and widespread destruction across the ​South American country.

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake hit about 160 km (100 miles) west of Caracas, followed less than a minute later by a magnitude 7.5 tremor, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Reuters reported.

“High casualties ‌and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread,” the USGS said, initially estimating the death toll would most likely range from 10,000 to 100,000.

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez said she would declare a state of emergency and request funds from multilateral organizations to back the recovery effort.

“We extend our condolences to those who have unfortunately suffered the loss of a family member,” she said in a national address, without giving a national count for deaths or injuries.

Local officials and witnesses reported collapsed buildings, rescues and a growing ​number of injured.

“We have buildings, homes and houses which have collapsed and we are taking care of things with everything we have available in terms of security, civil assistance,” Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said ​earlier on state television.

Video footage showed emergency workers climbing through the ruins of a collapsed building in the capital as night fell, while distraught relatives sought help for ⁠loved ones believed to be trapped.

Gustavo Duque, the mayor of the Chacao municipality in Caracas, said several buildings collapsed, and 18 survivors were extracted from one building alone. He urged onlookers to seek shelter and aid at public ​plazas because there could be aftershocks.

“We’re going to do everything we can to rescue the most people possible,” he said.

Twenty-two people were injured in the coastal state of Falcon, Governor Victor Clark said on state television. Fifteen missing people, ​all adults, were still being searched for.

RESIDENTS RUSH INTO THE STREETS

Many Venezuelans were at home when the quakes struck during a public holiday marking an 1821 military victory that helped secure the country’s independence from Spain.

“As soon as it started, we began hearing people screaming,” said Astrid Ramirez, a 41-year-old publicist in western Caracas. “Everyone was running down the stairs.”

Residents across Caracas, which was also hit by a deadly magnitude 6.3 earthquake in 1967, rushed to evacuate as buildings shook.

“There was a very loud crash. Things fell in ​the house, jugs inside the refrigerator. I’ve never experienced anything like it,” said Coro Martinez, 56, who lives in eastern Caracas.

Item 1 of 10 Emergency services work at the site of a collapsed building after an earthquake, in Caracas, Venezuela, June 24. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa

Maria Romero, an 80-year-old pensioner in southern Caracas, said police helped her get out of her home. “This earthquake ​was horrible, even worse than the one in 1967,” she said.

Another resident, a 41-year-old office worker who declined to be named, said she received an earthquake alert on her phone just before the shaking intensified.

“As I picked it up and started listening ‌to what it ⁠was saying, I first felt light shaking. Then, in less than two seconds, everything started moving.”

Rodriguez has been running the country since the U.S. ouster of President Nicolas Maduro in January. She has hailed a new era of cooperation with the U.S. and other countries, especially on oil, mining and other industries.

The U.S. embassy in Caracas said it was closely monitoring the aftermath of the quake and urged citizens in the country to seek secure shelter and avoid damaged areas.

HOSPITALS BRACE FOR THE INJURED

Fire trucks were seen on the streets of Caracas, where some buildings suffered significant facade damage.

At Caracas’ Hospital de Clinicas, staff were asked to double up on the night shift to help treat the ​injured, a worker there said.

Venezuela’s largest airport, in Maiquetia ​on the coast north of Caracas, was closed ⁠due to damages, Rodriguez said.

Classes were cancelled for the rest of the week as authorities began to take stock of the damage.

Venezuela’s oil infrastructure did not immediately appear to be affected by the tremors, as almost none of the cities with official reports of severe damage include critical oil infrastructure. Civil protection authorities in Maracaibo, near the large ​oil hub of Lake Maracaibo, said there were no injuries reported.

Many energy companies with operations in the country were accounting for staff before making initial assessments on ​the condition of oilfields, plants and ⁠refineries.

One source noted that extended loss of power could hit crude output levels until the service is restored. Venezuela’s oil ministry, state-run oil company PDVSA (PDVSA.UL) and its main foreign partner, Chevron did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

TSUNAMI ALERT WITHDRAWN

The U.S. Tsunami Warning System issued a tsunami threat for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands after the earthquake, and said hazardous waves could also affect Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire. The warning was withdrawn about an hour later.

Venezuela ⁠lies in a ​seismically active zone where the Caribbean Plate meets the South American Plate.

An estimated 30,000 people were killed when a powerful quake caused widespread ​destruction in the cities of Merida and Caracas in 1812, according to the USGS.

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