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US and Ghani government ‘set the stage’ for the collapse of republic: SIGAR
Washington’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) John F. Sopko stated in a report released Monday, that the agency found six short-term factors accelerated the collapse of the Afghan security forces in August 2021.
In his report to Congress, Sopko said first the decision by the United States to withdraw all U.S. military forces “fundamentally changed the behaviors of the United States, the [Ashraf] Ghani administration, and the Taliban (IEA).”
He said many Afghans thought the U.S.-Taliban agreement was an act of bad faith and a signal that the “United States was handing over Afghanistan to the enemy as it rushed to exit the country,” he said adding that “its immediate effect was a dramatic loss in ANDSF morale”.
In addition, the change in the U.S. military’s level of support to the ANDSF; the failure to establish a self-sustaining ANDSF; former President Ashraf Ghani’s frequent changes of ANDSF leaders and appointment of loyalists; the Afghan government’s failure to take responsibility for Afghan security through the implementation of a national security strategy; and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) effective exploitation of ANDSF weaknesses, were also behind the collapse of the security forces.
“These six short-term factors worked together to cause the ANDSF’s collapse,” Sopko stated in the report.
He said, in addition, SIGAR identified eight systemic factors that explain why, after 20 years and nearly $90 billion in U.S.
security assistance, the ANDSF was vulnerable to collapse in the first place and ill prepared to sustain security following a U.S. withdrawal.
According to him, these factors were:
The length of the U.S. commitment was disconnected from a realistic understanding of the time required to build a self-sustaining security sector;
No one country or agency had ownership of the ANDSF development mission;
Advisors were often poorly trained and inexperienced for their mission, while frequent personnel rotations impeded standardization, continuity of effort, and institutional memory;
The lack of effective interagency oversight and assessment programs prevented a clear picture of reality on the ground;
Afghan corruption eroded ANDSF capabilities;
U.S training, logistics and weapons procurement policies undermined its stated goal of creating a self-sustaining Afghan military;
The United States perpetuated pre-existing ethnic and regional tensions rather than achieving stated mission goals of force diversity and unification;
The U.S. and Afghan governments failed to develop a police force effective at providing justice and protecting Afghan citizens from crime.
Sopko also stated that during SIGAR’s work looking at the accounting for and status of U.S.-provided equipment to the ANDSF and U.S.trained ANDSF personnel, the agency found that the United States lacked a full accounting of equipment and personnel even before the collapse.
He said the IEA is now using U.S.-provided military equipment in operations; and while some U.S.-provided aircraft have been recovered, others remain in limbo in other countries.
In addition, ANDSF personnel have escaped, are in hiding, have been killed, or may have joined extremist groups, Sopko stated.
Sopko also stated in the report that the US department of defense and the state departed declined to review the interim
Draft of the report and in turn denied SIGAR access to their staff, “and mostly declined to answer requests for information”.
“This limited SIGAR’s ability to perform this evaluation. Still, this final version includes additional information that we received from U.S. and former Afghan officials over the past eight months, without support from U.S. agencies.”
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Tashkent: Central Asian leaders say regional stability hinges on Afghanistan
The two-day meeting comes at a time when Afghanistan’s stability — or lack thereof — continues to shape the wider region’s security landscape, trade connectivity and long-term development prospects.
The 7th Consultative Summit of Central Asian Leaders opened Saturday in Tashkent, where heads of six regional countries gathered to assess the evolving situation in Afghanistan and to chart a coordinated path for deeper political, economic and security cooperation.
The two-day meeting comes at a time when Afghanistan’s stability — or lack thereof — continues to shape the wider region’s security landscape, trade connectivity and long-term development prospects.
Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who initiated the idea of these high-level summits at the UN General Assembly in 2017, reiterated that Central Asia “cannot achieve lasting peace, stability or prosperity without a stable Afghanistan.” Tashkent has long positioned itself as a regional mediator on Afghan issues, hosting multiple rounds of diplomatic talks and pushing for expanded trade corridors that link Afghanistan to Central Asian markets.
Leaders at this year’s summit are expected to discuss a broad agenda: strengthening regional economic partnerships, accelerating joint infrastructure and transport projects, enhancing counter-terrorism and border security cooperation, and examining the impact of global geopolitical shifts on Central Asia. The discussions reflect growing concern that instability in Afghanistan — including economic pressures, migration flows and the presence of extremist groups — directly affects the region’s collective security.
Since Uzbekistan assumed the rotating chairmanship of the consultative process, more than 20 intergovernmental meetings have been held, underscoring a renewed commitment among Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to approach shared challenges with unified strategies. Analysts say the summit structure has become an increasingly important platform as Central Asian states seek to balance cooperation with major powers while safeguarding regional autonomy.
The Tashkent summit will continue through Sunday, with leaders expected to issue a joint statement outlining common priorities — many of which are likely to centre on ensuring that Afghanistan is integrated into regional economic plans rather than left isolated, a scenario observers warn would carry security risks for the entire region.
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Afghan refugees face record detentions in Pakistan, UNHCR warns
UNHCR also confirmed a reduction in cash assistance for Afghans living in Pakistan due to declining donor contributions.
Pakistan has detained more than 100,000 Afghan nationals so far this year, marking the highest surge in arrests to date as authorities ramp up nationwide crackdowns, the UN refugee agency reported on Friday.
According to UNHCR, 100,971 Afghans were detained between January 1 and mid-November 2025—an unprecedented rise compared with approximately 9,000 arrests in 2024 and more than 26,000 in 2023. The largest concentration of detentions occurred in Balochistan’s Chagai and Quetta districts, as well as Attock district in Punjab.
The agency said 76% of those detained were either Afghan Citizen Card holders or undocumented migrants, while 24% were registered refugees carrying Proof of Registration cards. The spike follows two major government directives issued earlier this year ordering the removal of Afghan migrants from Islamabad and Rawalpindi, and authorising police to detain PoR-card holders.
UNHCR also confirmed a reduction in cash assistance for Afghans living in Pakistan due to declining donor contributions. Aid organisations warn that the cuts have left thousands of vulnerable families struggling to afford food, rent and essential winter supplies.
Pressure on Afghan refugees is mounting across the region. Iran has reported a sharp rise in arrests and deportations of Afghan nationals this year, raising further concern among humanitarian agencies over weakening protection mechanisms.
Humanitarian groups have urged both Pakistan and Iran to ensure that any returns are voluntary and conducted in line with international law. They warn that mass expulsions risk deepening instability along Afghanistan’s borders, where many returnee families arrive without secure housing, employment opportunities or access to basic services.
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Russia offers to mediate Pakistan–Afghanistan tensions
Zakharova noted that Pakistan and the IEA are important partners for Russia, and a mediated process could pave the way for long-term stability.
Russia has offered to mediate between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) to help ease rising border tensions.The proposal was announced by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, who said regional stability remains a key priority for Russia and the international community. She urged both sides to show restraint and resolve their disputes through dialogue.
Zakharova noted that Pakistan and the IEA are important partners for Russia, and a mediated process could pave the way for long-term stability. Moscow’s offer follows earlier mediation efforts by Qatar and Turkey, which had led to a temporary ceasefire before recent talks in Istanbul failed to produce tangible results.
Warning that continued tensions threaten broader regional security, Zakharova called on both countries to stay engaged in negotiations and avoid steps that could intensify the situation. Dialogue, she stressed, remains the only sustainable path forward.
Russia’s announcement comes as other regional powers make similar overtures. Iran’s foreign minister recently voiced concern and offered to facilitate talks, while Turkey is preparing to dispatch a high-level delegation to Pakistan for further discussions.
Analysts say Russia’s entry into the mediation efforts could inject new momentum into the stalled process. With multiple international actors now offering support, Pakistan and Afghanistan may have more space to move toward a peaceful resolution.
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