US intelligence report warns prospects of peace ‘remain low’

US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines, in coordination with Intelligence Community leaders, on Tuesday released to Congress an unclassified annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States.

On Afghanistan, Haines said: “We assess that prospects for a peace deal will remain low during the next year. The Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support.”

“Kabul continues to face setbacks on the battlefield, and the Taliban is confident it can achieve military victory,” the report read.

“Afghan forces continue to secure major cities and other government strongholds, but they remain tied down in defensive missions and have struggled to hold recaptured territory or reestablish a presence in areas abandoned in 2020,” the report started.

The report also stated that “Iran will hedge its bets in Afghanistan, and its actions may threaten instability.”

According to the DNI, Tehran is strengthening its relations with both the Afghan government and with the Taliban in order to benefit from any possible political outcome.

“Iran publicly backs Afghan peace talks, but it is worried about a long-term US presence in Afghanistan. As a result, Iran is building ties with both the government in Kabul and the Taliban so it can take advantage of any political outcome,” read the report.

The release of the report coincided with the announcement by a senior US official that President Joe Biden is set to announce the full withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by September 11 – the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the United States.