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US intelligence report warns prospects of peace ‘remain low’
US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines, in coordination with Intelligence Community leaders, on Tuesday released to Congress an unclassified annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States.
On Afghanistan, Haines said: “We assess that prospects for a peace deal will remain low during the next year. The Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support.”
“Kabul continues to face setbacks on the battlefield, and the Taliban is confident it can achieve military victory,” the report read.
“Afghan forces continue to secure major cities and other government strongholds, but they remain tied down in defensive missions and have struggled to hold recaptured territory or reestablish a presence in areas abandoned in 2020,” the report started.
The report also stated that “Iran will hedge its bets in Afghanistan, and its actions may threaten instability.”
According to the DNI, Tehran is strengthening its relations with both the Afghan government and with the Taliban in order to benefit from any possible political outcome.
“Iran publicly backs Afghan peace talks, but it is worried about a long-term US presence in Afghanistan. As a result, Iran is building ties with both the government in Kabul and the Taliban so it can take advantage of any political outcome,” read the report.
The release of the report coincided with the announcement by a senior US official that President Joe Biden is set to announce the full withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by September 11 – the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the United States.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the former US special representative for Afghanistan, has questioned Pakistan’s commitment to the welfare of the Afghan people, citing Islamabad’s policies over the past three decades.
Khalilzad said in a post on X that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif advocated for the rights of Afghan women during his speech at the UN General Assembly on Friday.
Sharif said: “Fundamental rights of the Afghan people — especially women and girls — must be respected.”
Responding to the remarks, Khalilzad said Pakistan’s policies over the past 30 years raise questions about Sharif’s commitment to Afghan welfare.
He cited Pakistan’s support for militant groups against US forces and what he described as the poor treatment of Afghan refugees as examples.
Khalilzad also said Afghanistan and Pakistan need and should have much better relations, adding that “a reset is necessary.”
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Rabab Fatima, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said in a post on X that Misri underscored the need to keep addressing the humanitarian needs of the Afghan people as a priority.
Misri also appreciated the role of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and reaffirmed India’s continued cooperation with the United Nations on Afghanistan.
The meeting comes as Afghanistan continues to face humanitarian and economic challenges, with international agencies warning of significant needs among the Afghan population.
Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi has called for pragmatic and coordinated international engagement with Afghanistan, saying the country’s long-term stability is closely linked to the security and sustainable development of Central Asia.
Speaking during the general debate of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Friday, Tileuberdi said humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan remains essential but alone cannot break the cycle of poverty, displacement and dependency.
He said Kazakhstan supports a “pragmatic, coordinated and step-by-step” approach to international engagement with Afghanistan, with the United Nations playing a central role.
Tileuberdi also said Kazakhstan is working with the UN to operationalize the United Nations Regional Centre for the Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty.
He said the success of the centre should be measured by the results and assistance it delivers to the region.
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