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Climate Change

World could face record temperatures in 2023 as El Nino returns

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The world could breach a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, fuelled by climate change and the anticipated return of the El Nino weather phenomenon, climate scientists say.

Climate models suggest that after three years of the La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which generally lowers global temperatures slightly, the world will experience a return to El Nino, the warmer counterpart, later this year.

During El Nino, winds blowing west along the equator slow down, and warm water is pushed east, creating warmer surface ocean temperatures, Reuters reported.

“El Nino is normally associated with record breaking temperatures at the global level. Whether this will happen in 2023 or 2024 is not yet known, but it is, I think, more likely than not,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Climate models suggest a return to El Nino conditions in the late boreal summer, and the possibility of a strong El Nino developing towards the end of the year, Buontempo said.

The world’s hottest year on record so far was 2016, coinciding with a strong El Nino – although climate change has fuelled extreme temperatures even in years without the phenomenon, read the report.

The last eight years were the world’s eight hottest on record – reflecting the longer-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions.

Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, said El Nino-fuelled temperatures could worsen the climate change impacts countries are already experiencing – including severe heatwaves, drought and wildfires.

“If El Niño does develop, there is a good chance 2023 will be even hotter than 2016 – considering the world has continued to warm as humans continue to burn fossil fuels,” Otto said.

EU Copernicus scientists published a report on Thursday assessing the climate extremes the world experienced last year, its fifth-warmest year on record, Reuters reported.

Europe experienced its hottest summer on record in 2022, while climate change-fuelled extreme rain caused disastrous flooding in Pakistan, and in February, Antarctic sea ice levels hit a record low.

The world’s average global temperature is now 1.2C higher than in pre-industrial times, Copernicus said.

Despite most of the world’s major emitters pledging to eventually slash their net emissions to zero, global CO2 emissions last year continued to rise.

Climate Change

Afghanistan among world’s five most climate-vulnerable countries

Meanwhile, Shir Ahmad Haqqani, Minister of Information and Culture, highlighted the important role of media organisations in reporting the negative impacts of climate change.

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Afghanistan ranks among the five countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite contributing little to global greenhouse gas emissions, the head of the country’s National Environmental Protection Agency has said.

Matiul Haq Khalis, Director General of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), made the remarks at a scientific conference in Kabul, saying Afghanistan could rank as the world’s third most climate-vulnerable country if comprehensive global research is conducted.

The conference, titled “Afghanistan’s Media and Climate Diplomacy: Opportunities and Challenges,” was organised at a private university and brought together government officials and media representatives to discuss the country’s climate challenges.

Khalis stressed that Afghanistan faces serious climate-related risks despite having a negligible role in producing global greenhouse gas emissions.

Meanwhile, Shir Ahmad Haqqani, Minister of Information and Culture, highlighted the important role of media organisations in reporting the negative impacts of climate change.

He called on media outlets to take a more active role in raising public awareness and informing communities about climate-related challenges.

Media representatives attending the conference also expressed their readiness to cooperate with government institutions in public awareness campaigns and efforts to address the consequences of climate change.

The discussions come ahead of an international climate conference scheduled to take place in Türkiye, where Afghan representatives have also been invited to participate and present the country’s views, with the aim of drawing greater international attention to Afghanistan’s climate challenges.

However, several international projects aimed at supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in Afghanistan have currently been suspended, raising concerns about the country’s ability to respond effectively to growing environmental threats.

The conference highlighted the importance of stronger media engagement, international cooperation and continued support for Afghanistan as it faces increasing climate-related challenges.

These developments come as a climate change conference is set to be held in Turkey in one day’s time; representatives from Afghanistan have also been invited to participate, present their perspectives, and draw the international community’s attention to the country’s climate situation.

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Climate Change

90 million displaced people at risk from climate threats, UN refugee agency says

In ​the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugee returns were to countries highly exposed to climate hazards, placing them ​at risk of renewed displacement, the report said.

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Nearly 90 million forcibly displaced people are living in countries increasingly exposed to climate-related ​droughts, floods and extreme heat, the UN refugee agency said on Friday, warning ahead of the COP31 climate ‌summit that more funding is needed to help vulnerable communities adapt.

Nearly three-quarters of the world’s forcibly displaced people are living in countries such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh that are exposed to severe climate-related risks, according to the report by the agency, known as UNHCR, published ahead of the UN ​Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Turkey. The findings show the overlap between conflict, displacement and climate change, the report ​said.

“Climate adaptation in fragile and displacement-affected areas is a matter of survival,” said Anton Leis Garcia, UNHCR’s ⁠assistant high commissioner for operations.

“We need climate financing to reach the communities where the needs are greatest,” he said.

The report ​highlighted the experience of a Sudanese refugee who fled conflict in al-Fashir in June 2023 to the Farchana refugee settlement in eastern ​Chad. The refugee said she sometimes goes a week without finding safe water and must walk increasingly long distances for alternative sources as nearby seasonal riverbeds dry up amid intensifying heat.

RETURNS AT RISK

It also warned that climate change is making it harder for displaced people to return home sustainably.

In ​the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugee returns were to countries highly exposed to climate hazards, placing them ​at risk of renewed displacement, the report said.

In Syria, where nearly 4 million displaced people have recently returned, people face worsening water scarcity ‌and erratic ⁠rainfall, while flooding along the Euphrates River in May damaged homes and displaced thousands of people, the report said.

Across sub-Saharan Africa, one in three refugee settlements could experience at least 100 days of dangerous heat each year by 2050, threatening health and livelihoods, the report said. In some settlements in Ethiopia, including Helaweyn, dangerous heat could persist for more than 200 days a year, increasing ​the risks of heatstroke and ​premature death.

“Refugees often have limited ⁠access to cooling, water and reliable energy, making it harder to escape dangerous temperatures,” the report said.

UNHCR also warned that a forecast supersized El Niño could worsen climate-related risks in many refugee-hosting countries ​and trigger further displacement.

In East Africa, severe flooding could displace up to 3 million people ​in Somalia, Kenya, ⁠South Sudan and Uganda by the end of this year, UNHCR said. In the Sahel, drought, flooding and conflict could intensify competition over scarce resources, while parts of Asia face heightened risks of droughts, floods and cyclones.

UNHCR called on governments and climate-finance institutions meeting at ⁠COP31 to ​increase funding for climate adaptation, highlighting that only about 10% of climate finance ​reaches fragile or conflict-affected countries.

On Wednesday, a separate UN report found rich countries were falling well short of the $305 billion needed each year to help developing nations ​adapt to climate change, even as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe.

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Climate Change

IEA to attend UN climate summit for second time since returning to power

The IEA previously attended COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024. Observer status allows delegates to participate in discussions but does not grant them formal negotiating or decision-making powers.

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Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate (IEA) is expected to send representatives to the COP31 United Nations climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, marking its second participation in the global climate conference process since returning to power in 2021.

According to the Associated Press, Rohullah Amin, head of climate change at the National Environmental Protection Agency, confirmed that Kabul plans to send a delegation. A Turkish official also confirmed that IEA representatives had been invited as observers.

The IEA previously attended COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024. Observer status allows delegates to participate in discussions but does not grant them formal negotiating or decision-making powers.

Afghanistan remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, facing recurring droughts, water shortages, extreme temperatures and devastating floods. These challenges threaten agricultural production, livelihoods and food security, while contributing to internal displacement.

The planned participation comes amid continuing disagreements over Afghanistan’s international representation and access to climate financing, with the United Nations yet to recognize the IEA administration as the country’s official government.

COP31 is expected to provide another opportunity to highlight Afghanistan’s growing environmental challenges and its need for international climate support.

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