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World’s poorest countries pushed to brink of collapse under China debt

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At least a dozen poor countries are buckling under the weight of hundreds of billions of dollars in debt, most of which is owed to China. 

A recent analysis, carried out by the Associated Press, found that for a dozen countries, paying back their debt is consuming a growing amount of their tax revenue needed to keep basic services going.

Among the countries analyzed was Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia and it was found that paying back their debt is also draining foreign currency reserves that these countries use to pay interest on the loans – leaving some with just months before that money is gone.

AP reported that behind the scenes is China’s reluctance to forgive debt and its extreme secrecy about how much money it has loaned and on what terms, which has kept other major lenders from stepping in to help. 

According to World Bank data analyzed by Statista recently, countries heavily in debt to China are mostly located in Africa, but can also be found in Central Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. 

And, Statista reports that the new Belt and Road Initiative, which finances the construction of port, rail and land infrastructure, has created much debt to China for participating countries, specifically poor countries.

As of March last year, 215 cooperation documents had been signed with 149 countries on the initiative.

Countries in AP’s analysis meanwhile had as much as 50% of their foreign loans from China and most were devoting more than a third of government revenue to paying off foreign debt. 

Two of them, Zambia and Sri Lanka, have already gone into default, unable to make even interest payments on loans financing the construction of ports, mines and power plants.

In Pakistan, millions of textile workers have been laid off because the country has too much foreign debt and can’t afford to keep the electricity on and machines running, AP stated.

In Kenya, the government has held back paychecks to thousands of civil service workers to save cash to pay foreign loans. The president’s chief economic adviser tweeted last month, “Salaries or default? Take your pick.”

The study also found that since Sri Lanka defaulted a year ago, a half-million industrial jobs have vanished, inflation has risen by 50% and more than half the population in many parts of the country has fallen into poverty.

The study found that experts predict that unless China begins to soften its stance on its loans to poor countries, there could be a wave of more defaults and political upheavals.

AP’s report stated that a case study of how it has played out is in Zambia, a landlocked country of 20 million people in southern Africa that over the past two decades has borrowed billions of dollars from Chinese state-owned banks to build dams, railways and roads.

While the loans boosted Zambia’s economy, they also raised foreign interest payments so high that there was little left for the government, forcing it to cut spending on healthcare, social services and subsidies to farmers for seed and fertilizer.

In the past under such circumstances, big government lenders such as the U.S., Japan and France would work out deals to forgive some debt, with each lender disclosing clearly what they were owed and on what terms so no one would feel cheated.

But China didn’t play by those rules, AP reported. It refused at first to even join in multinational talks, negotiating separately with Zambia and insisting on confidentiality that barred the country from telling non-Chinese lenders the terms of the loans.

By late 2020, Zambia was unable to pay the interest and defaulted, setting off a cycle of spending cuts and deepening poverty. 

Since then, inflation in Zambia has increased by 50%, unemployment has hit a 17-year high and the nation’s currency, the kwacha, has lost 30% of its value in just seven months. AP also found that 3.5 million Zambians are now not getting enough food. 

AP reported that a few months after Zambia defaulted, researchers found that the country owed $6.6 billion to Chinese state-owned banks, double what many thought at the time and about a third of the country’s total debt.

China’s unwillingness however to take big losses on the hundreds of billions of dollars it is owed, as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank have urged, has left many countries on a treadmill of paying back interest, which stifles the economic growth that would help them pay off the debt.

For Pakistan, its foreign cash reserves have plunged more than 50%, according to AP’s analysis, while in nine of the 12 countries analyzed, foreign cash reserves have dropped on average of 25% in just one year. 

Based on this, Pakistan for example has only two months left of foreign cash to pay for food, fuel and other essential imports if it does not get a bailout. Other countries, such as Mongolia, have eight months left. 

AP found that last month, Pakistan was so desperate to prevent more blackouts that it struck a deal to buy discounted oil from Russia, breaking ranks with the US-led effort to shut off Vladimir Putin’s funds.

In Sri Lanka, rioters poured into the streets last July, setting homes of government ministers aflame and storming the presidential palace, sending the leader tied to onerous deals with China fleeing the country.

China has however disputed the idea that Beijing is an unforgiving lender and said in a statement that the Federal Reserve was to blame. 

It said that if it is to accede to IMF and World Bank demands to forgive a portion of its loans, so should multilateral lenders, which it views as US proxies.

“We call on these institutions to actively participate in relevant actions in accordance with the principle of ‘joint action, fair burden’ and make greater contributions to help developing countries tide over the difficulties,” the statement said.

But China’s approach to lending is widely considered more transactional and criticized as “opaque” and analysts see Beijing’s desire to access oil, minerals and other commodities as the driving force behind Chinese lenders being less prone to applying strict conditions in helping governments finance roads, bridges and railroads – so as to unlock those resources.

Just last month, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers: “I’m very, very concerned about some of the activities that China engages in globally, investing in countries in ways that leave them trapped in debt and don’t promote economic development.”

“We are working very hard to counter that influence in all of the international institutions that we participate in,” she said. 

Since 2017, China has become the world’s largest official creditor, surpassing the World Bank, IMF and 22-member Paris Club combined, Brent Neiman, a counselor to Yellen, said late last year. 

Politico meanwhile reported earlier this month that China’s financing of projects in other countries between 2000 and 2017 totaled more than $800 billion, most of that in the form of loans.

But for some poor countries struggling to repay China, they now find themselves stuck in a kind of loan limbo: China won’t budge in taking losses, and the IMF won’t offer low-interest loans if the money is just going to pay interest on Chinese debt.

 

World

Senior UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh enters race for UN chief

Nusseibeh, 48, said she was approached by multiple countries during the last UN General Assembly to put herself forward. She previously ​led the UAE’s successful campaign for election to the Security Council. Diplomats in New York say she is respected as a competent manager.

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Senior UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh entered the race ​to become the next United Nations secretary-general on Wednesday, injecting a prominent Middle Eastern candidate into a contest that has ‌struggled to produce a consensus choice among the Security Council’s most powerful members.

Nusseibeh, a former UAE ambassador to the UN for more than a decade, told Reuters she would seek to restore the world body’s role as a diplomatic problem-solver at a time of mounting global crises.

“It’s clear that today we need a secretary-general that ​can recommit to the future of multilateralism and the future of the United Nations as a problem-solver rather than as a ​spectator to the world’s crises,” she said shortly before going public with her candidacy.

Nusseibeh, the UAE minister of ⁠state for foreign affairs, is a late entrant to the race. An informal Security Council poll had placed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan ​as the narrow frontrunner, sources have said.

Although Grynspan has led the informal “straw polls,” last week she and all other candidates received two or more opposing ​votes from the ultimately decisive five permanent members of the council — Britain, China, France, Russia and the US.

Council members are negotiating over whether to hold another poll this Friday or at a later stage.

ENTREPRENEURIAL DIPLOMACY

Nusseibeh, 48, said she was approached by multiple countries during the last UN General Assembly to put herself forward. She previously ​led the UAE’s successful campaign for election to the Security Council. Diplomats in New York say she is respected as a competent manager.

“It’s recognized ​today that we need someone who offers generational change for the organization,” she said.

Her UN tenure overlapped with the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023 ‌when she ⁠secured the adoption of Resolution 2720 paving the way for the delivery of humanitarian aid.

Nusseibeh said she secured support for the resolution by arranging a visit by council members to the Rafah border crossing to see for themselves the situation on the ground, describing the move as part of her “creative entrepreneurial diplomacy” that characterizes her approach.

RELENTLESS DIPLOMACY

As a top UAE diplomat, Nusseibeh has championed Abu Dhabi’s assertive foreign policy and heavy focus on countering ​political Islam.

The UAE has faced criticism ​over Sudan after UN sanctions ⁠monitors described allegations that it provided military support to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces as credible. The UAE denies the allegations.

Asked how the allegations might affect her candidacy, Nusseibeh said she had taken leave from her ​UAE post and would focus on Sudan’s humanitarian crisis.

A Nusseibeh victory would make her the second UN ​chief from the Middle ⁠East, after Egypt’s Boutros Boutros-Ghali.

“I come from a country that is younger than the United Nations but our region is one that has been facing severe challenges,” she said.

She would also become the first woman to lead the UN, though Nusseibeh said she was not running on her gender.

“I think ⁠it would be ​great if the next secretary-general was a woman but I’m not running because I’m ​a woman; I’m running because I am stubbornly optimistic about the future of the United Nations and I believe we need someone who is relentless in the pursuit of diplomacy ​to open doors.”

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Governments warn citizens over security risks in France after riots

The unrest on Saturday saw clashes between protesters and police, looting at shops and a town hall set on fire, prompting several countries to update their travel advisories.

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Governments across Europe and Asia have warned their citizens to exercise caution in France following violent protests over the rising cost of living and declining public services that erupted into riots over the weekend.

The unrest on Saturday saw clashes between protesters and police, looting at shops and a town hall set on fire, prompting several countries to update their travel advisories.

Italy urged its citizens in France to avoid large crowds and exercise extreme caution. Its foreign ministry also advised travellers to register their presence through an official website or mobile application to help authorities locate them if necessary.

Germany warned that further riots could occur in the coming days and urged its nationals to follow instructions from local police. It also cautioned that people could face fines or claims for damages if they failed to leave unauthorised demonstrations when ordered to do so.

The Czech Republic advised its citizens to stay away from demonstrations, marches and public gatherings, citing a deterioration in the security situation, the Czech news agency CTK reported.

Poland similarly urged visitors to avoid areas where demonstrations were taking place, although it made no changes to its overall assessment of France as a travel destination.

The Netherlands has also advised travellers to avoid protests, according to its travel guidance, last updated on October 7.

Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway issued similar warnings, urging their citizens in France to avoid demonstrations and follow instructions from local authorities.

Outside Europe, Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry said it was monitoring the demonstrations. While travel to France remained unrestricted, it advised Malaysians to consider postponing non-essential trips until the situation improved.

Malaysia’s embassy in Paris also urged citizens in France to remain vigilant and exercise caution.

The warnings reflect growing concern among foreign governments over the potential for further violence as France faces public anger over living costs and pressure on public services. Authorities have urged visitors and residents to monitor local developments and follow police instructions.

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World

Violent protests spread across Europe as Albanian PM blames ‘foreign hand’

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in separate demonstrations over the weekend, with some rallies escalating into looting, arson and confrontations with security forces.

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Demonstrations over living costs, housing, education and alleged corruption have triggered clashes with police in several countries across Europe, putting governments under mounting pressure.

Protests and violent clashes have spread this month, with demonstrations in France, Belgium, Italy, Portugal and Albania exposing growing public frustration over economic pressures, education and government accountability.

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in separate demonstrations over the weekend, with some rallies escalating into looting, arson and confrontations with security forces.

In Albania, Prime Minister Edi Rama accused unnamed foreign forces of fuelling the unrest, describing the violence as the work of an “outside hand” seeking to destabilise the country and undermine its ambitions to join the European Union.

The accusation comes as thousands of demonstrators in the capital, Tirana, demand Rama’s resignation, while protests have also spread to other Albanian cities.

Albania protests escalate

Albania has experienced several days of increasingly violent anti-government demonstrations, with students joining a broader movement against Rama’s government.

Protesters have raised concerns about alleged corruption, university conditions, education costs and unemployment. Opposition to a controversial luxury tourism development along Albania’s southern coastline has also contributed to the wider discontent. The project has been linked to Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump.

Clashes in Tirana have seen demonstrators throw stones, fireworks and petrol bombs at police, while government buildings and other property have been damaged by fires and vandalism.

Police have responded with tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets. Authorities have also reported numerous detentions and injuries among protesters and officers.

Rama has rejected calls to resign, arguing that the violence threatens Albania’s European integration ambitions. He has said the government is prepared to address legitimate student concerns but will not yield to demands made through violence.

His claims of foreign interference have not however been independently established.

France sees widespread unrest

France experienced some of the largest demonstrations, with more than 550,000 people taking part in rallies over the weekend.

What began as demonstrations involving students broadened into protests over the cost of living and wider social grievances. Violence erupted in several cities on Saturday, with masked groups targeting shops, supermarkets and public buildings.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said more than 1,200 people had been arrested and 150 police officers injured. In Limoges, a fire largely destroyed the historic town hall, while other municipal buildings and businesses were vandalised or looted.

President Emmanuel Macron vowed that those responsible for the violence would face prosecution.

Clashes in Belgium and Italy

In Brussels, Belgian police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse demonstrators after accusing some protesters of throwing objects at officers and starting fires. Similar tactics were used in Liège.

The unrest followed weeks of student protests over university registration fees and reflected wider concerns about the affordability of education and everyday expenses.

In Milan, Italy, a march against war and rising living costs descended into clashes as masked protesters threw stones and paving blocks at riot police, looted shops and set fire to barricades.

Police used tear gas and water cannons to clear crowds from the city centre. At least two officers were injured and about 50 demonstrators were detained, according to Italian news agency LaPresse.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni condemned the violence, while Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala said protesters’ concerns were understandable but that attacks on police and damage to public property were unacceptable.

Clashes were also reported in Bologna.

Housing and wages drive protests in Portugal

In Lisbon, tens of thousands of people marched on Saturday against rising living costs, low wages and the difficulty of finding affordable housing.

House prices in Portugal have more than doubled since 2017, while rents for new leases have risen sharply, intensifying pressure on households in major cities.

Demonstrators called for higher wages and pensions and action to address housing and fuel costs. Some erected tents in central Lisbon to highlight the housing crisis.

The Portuguese government has faced criticism from protesters who accuse political leaders of being disconnected from the financial pressures experienced by ordinary citizens.

Spain housing protests turn violent

Spain also faced its own protests earlier this month when violence erupted during housing protests in Spain on October 3, with clashes reported in Valencia and Barcelona.

Demonstrators protested soaring rents, evictions and the growing difficulty of accessing affordable housing.

Police made arrests as unrest escalated, with officers injured during confrontations. The demonstrations reflect mounting public anger over Spain’s housing crisis and growing pressure on Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government to introduce lasting solutions.

Wider warning for European governments

Although the demonstrations are believed to not be part of a single coordinated movement, analysts say they reflect overlapping concerns about living standards, education, housing and the prospects facing younger generations.

Alberto Alemanno, a professor of European Union law and policy at HEC Paris Business School, told Al Jazeera however that France appeared to be at the centre of a wider wave of unrest, with signs of mobilisation emerging elsewhere in Europe.

He suggested that further demonstrations could take place in the coming weeks, including in Germany, Greece and Austria.

Reinout Van Zandycke, a communications expert in Belgium, warned last week that foreign interference could be involved in TikTok calls encouraging people to protest in France and Belgium on October 17. His concern focused on the online mobilisation and the possibility of manipulation, rather than proof that the protests were centrally organised.

The unrest presents a challenge for governments already facing public pressure over economic conditions and political accountability. In Albania, the dispute has also become entangled with the country’s ambition to join the European Union.

Whether the demonstrations lead to policy changes or further confrontation remains uncertain. However, the spread of unrest underlines the pressure facing European governments as protesters demand action on living costs, education, housing and corruption.

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