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Afghanistan transit trade through Pakistan hits historic low

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Afghanistan’s transit trade through Pakistan has dropped to its lowest level in years, according to Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper.

The report says transit cargo declined from nearly 89,000 containers worth $5 billion before the Islamic Emirate returned to power to just 11,592 containers valued at $367 million in the last fiscal year.

According to Dawn, while Pakistan’s closure of Durand Line crossings with Afghanistan in October 2025 over security concerns accelerated the decline, the downward trend had already begun earlier.

Trade analysts told the newspaper that Afghanistan had already been working to reduce its reliance on Pakistani ports by expanding trade through Iran and strengthening commercial links with Central Asian countries.

The report says transit cargo through Pakistan initially rose after the Islamic Emirate’s return to power, peaking at more than 102,000 containers in fiscal year 2023, before steadily declining in subsequent years.

Dawn also reported that reverse transit, which allowed Afghan exports to reach third countries—particularly India—through Pakistan, has nearly come to a halt, falling from $454 million in fiscal year 2025 to just $7 million in fiscal year 2026.

Citing the World Bank, the newspaper said Iran has become Afghanistan’s largest source of imports, with Iranian direct and transit routes now accounting for nearly half of the country’s total imports.

However, the World Bank says the shift to alternative routes has increased import costs, reduced export revenues, and added inflationary pressure, while the decline in cross-Durand Line trade has also affected thousands of jobs linked to transport, customs, warehousing, and other businesses.

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Iran calls for fewer border barriers as trade with Afghanistan expands

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Iran says reducing border and customs barriers is essential to increasing trade and economic exchanges with Afghanistan, as officials report a sharp rise in rail freight between the two countries.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said at a weekly press briefing that Tehran and Kabul have discussed ways to facilitate economic and commercial cooperation, particularly by reducing customs and border obstacles.

Baghaei said the issue was discussed during a meeting between Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs and Iran’s president. He added that important measures have since been placed on the agenda and that constructive exchanges have continued at the ministerial level.

The Iranian official expressed hope that the process would help increase bilateral trade and remove existing obstacles to the movement of goods between the two countries.

Meanwhile, Jabbar Ali Zakari, Iran’s deputy minister of roads and urban development and head of the country’s railway company, said rail freight between Iran and Afghanistan has increased significantly.

Zakari said less than 15,000 tonnes of goods were transported by rail between the two countries annually in the past, while the figure has now reached around 130,000 tonnes per month.

He said Iran expects the volume to reach approximately 1.5 million tonnes annually if the current trend continues.

Iranian officials say expanding railway links with Afghanistan and other regional countries could further strengthen trade, transit and connectivity between Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

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Afghanistan’s trade diversification challenges Pakistan

The disruption affects both sides of the border, including farmers, transporters, commission agents, wholesalers and retailers.

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Five years after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) returned to power in Kabul, Afghanistan’s economic relationship with Pakistan is undergoing a structural shift. For Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, particularly Peshawar, the issue is increasingly one of industrial resilience and competitiveness.

The clearest evidence is Afghanistan’s transit trade through Pakistan. Container traffic reached a record 102,886 containers worth $6.7 billion in Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23), but fell to 54,114 in FY24 and 42,959 in FY25. In FY26, it collapsed to just 11,592 containers valued at $367 million, according to customs data cited by Dawn.

The figures indicate that Pakistan’s October 2025 border restrictions accelerated a decline that had already begun.

Afghanistan has increasingly diversified its trade routes, with Iran emerging as a major alternative. The World Bank’s Afghanistan Economic Monitor says the Iranian corridor has become a key part of the country’s import supply chain.

In FY25, Iran accounted for 31.3 percent of Afghan imports, while direct imports from Iran and goods transiting through Iran together represented 48.6 percent. Central Asian routes are also gaining importance.

For Pakistan, the loss extends beyond transit fees. It risks losing its traditional position as Afghanistan’s principal gateway to international markets.

The decline is also hitting businesses in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. For decades, Afghan demand supported manufacturers, wholesalers, transporters, clearing agents and warehouses linking Karachi’s ports with Peshawar and the border markets.

Cement, construction materials, food products, pharmaceuticals, textiles and consumer goods have traditionally found markets in Afghanistan. As Afghan orders decline, manufacturers face lower demand while already dealing with high energy, financing and transport costs, Dawn reported.

Agriculture is particularly vulnerable because fruits and vegetables cannot withstand prolonged border delays. In 2025, five southern Afghan provinces exported 44,225 tonnes of grapes worth $13.8 million, with nearly 43,000 tonnes going to Pakistan. So far in 2026, exports have fallen to just 256 tonnes valued at about $100,000, according to the Associated Press.

The disruption affects both sides of the border, including farmers, transporters, commission agents, wholesalers and retailers.

At the centre of the issue is the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, designed to give Afghanistan access to Pakistani seaports while offering Pakistan a potential trade corridor to Central Asia. But security concerns, smuggling, regulatory disputes and political tensions have steadily weakened the arrangement.

Pakistan has legitimate concerns about transit cargo being diverted into its domestic market, while Afghan traders face higher costs and uncertainty from additional requirements, inspections and border delays.

If alternative routes through Iran and Central Asia become commercially viable, traders have an incentive to establish new supply chains – and winning that business back could prove difficult.

The consequences are particularly serious for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where Peshawar’s commercial ecosystem has long depended on trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.

The Pak-Afghan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimates Pakistani exporters suffered around $225 million in losses over eight months this year because of restrictions and blockades. It puts annual Pakistani exports to Afghanistan at around $1.5 billion and exports to Central Asian markets through Afghanistan at about $800 million.

Pakistan therefore cannot treat the decline in Afghan transit trade solely as a security or diplomatic issue.

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89 traders and industrialists invest $68 million in Afghanistan, creating over 4,000 jobs

According to Fitrat, the investments have so far generated direct employment for more than 4,000 people.

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A total of 89 traders and industrialists have transferred capital to Afghanistan over the past two years, investing $68 million and directly creating more than 4,000 jobs, the Islamic Emirate said.

Hamdullah Fitrat, deputy spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate, said the investors had received the necessary facilities and support to establish and expand businesses in the country.

Fitrat said the group includes one large-scale investor, 74 medium-scale investors and 14 small-scale investors.

He added that 288 jeribs of land had been allocated to the investors in industrial parks across Afghanistan.

According to Fitrat, the investments have so far generated direct employment for more than 4,000 people.

He said the documents of a further 15 traders and investors are currently under review. Once the legal procedures are completed, they will also be eligible to receive similar facilities and incentives.

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