Deadly violence likely without dialogue between Afghanistan and Pakistan: ICG

The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned that rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan risk spiralling into further deadly conflict unless both sides return to dialogue.

In a recent statement, the organisation said last week’s strike on a hospital in Kabul marked a significant escalation, pushing already strained relations closer to direct confrontation. Analysts say ongoing exchanges of airstrikes and artillery fire have heightened fears of a broader regional crisis.

The attack on a major drug rehabilitation hospital in the Afghan capital reportedly killed more than 400 people and injured at least 265, drawing international concern.

Islamabad has accused Kabul of allowing militant groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), to operate from its territory—an allegation Afghan authorities deny. Kabul has instead condemned Pakistan’s military actions as violations of its sovereignty.

The ICG warned that current trends point to an escalating cycle of violence that could result in significant military costs with little strategic gain for Pakistan.

At the same time, the group noted that the fighting has further isolated Afghanistan diplomatically.

While several countries expressed condolences following the 16 March strike, there has been limited international condemnation of Pakistan’s actions, alongside increasing calls for Kabul to curb militant activity within its borders.

The organisation stressed the urgent need for international support to help both countries rebuild trust and address shared security threats. Without renewed engagement, it cautioned, further deadly violence appears unavoidable.