FAO warns of dry winter, low snowfall and rising food insecurity risks in Afghanistan

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that Afghanistan is likely to face a drier and warmer-than-average winter, raising serious concerns about water availability, agricultural production and food security.

In its Seasonal Climate Outlook for December 2025 to February 2026, FAO said a weak La Niña pattern is driving below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures across most parts of the country. The report notes that the 2025/26 wet season has already begun drier and warmer than normal, with widespread soil moisture deficits persisting for another consecutive year

According to FAO, snow accumulation remains exceptionally low, with snow-water-equivalent levels at their lowest point in the past 25 years. This poses a critical hydrological risk, particularly for irrigated wheat-growing areas that depend on snowmelt-fed river systems. Even if precipitation improves later in winter, early deficits are unlikely to be fully offset, the report said

The outlook projects that December, January and February will all carry an elevated risk of below-normal rainfall, especially in northern, northeastern, western and central highland regions. Warmer daytime temperatures combined with cold nights are also expected to increase stress on crops, livestock and vulnerable communities

FAO warned that continued dryness could delay planting and weaken crop establishment for rain-fed winter wheat and barley, potentially reducing yields for the 2026 harvest. In irrigated areas, low snowpack threatens spring water supplies, increasing competition for water and reliance on already stressed groundwater resources.

Rangeland and pasture conditions are also expected to deteriorate, with delayed green-up likely to force herders to depend longer on stored fodder. This could lead to declining livestock health, reduced milk production and increased risk of animal losses toward late winter and early spring, the report said.

FAO and partner assessments caution that consecutive seasons of insufficient rainfall and high temperatures have already weakened agricultural systems and could leave millions of people facing acute food insecurity between late 2025 and early 2026

The UN agency emphasized the need for close monitoring of precipitation, snowpack and crop conditions, calling for timely agricultural support, improved water management and early anticipatory action to mitigate the impacts of the unfolding climate risks.