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Peace talks ‘under threat’ as Taliban prepare for major spring offensive

Unusually intense fighting in the winter by Taliban insurgents has spurred Afghan government preparations for more violence in the warmer spring, which international players fear will further endanger the nation’s fragile peace process, Reuters reported.
This comes after a sharp increase in attacks by the group since the signing of the US-Taliban agreement in Doha in February last year.
General Scott Miller, the head of US forces and the NATO-led Resolute Support mission told Reuters that “Taliban violence is much higher than historical norms.”
“It just doesn’t create the conditions to move forward in what is hopefully a historic turning point for Afghanistan,” he said.
Typically fighting quietens down during the snowy winter months before the Taliban launch a “spring offensive” around March. However, this winter, fighting has been intense.
Miller said that the fighting now was an indicator that not only would there be a spring offensive – a move many diplomats view as against the spirit of the Doha agreement – but that it could be more intense than before, Reuters reported.
This also comes as negotiations have largely stalled in Doha in recent weeks and Taliban leaders have left Qatar, a senior state department official said, leading to growing fears that talks could be on the brink of collapse.
“If the violence isn’t reduced, it’s going to make a peace process very, very difficult; it would be very difficult for any side to make the necessary compromises,” Miller said.
The Afghan government has instructed security forces to carry out a comprehensive troop restructuring and design operations to prepare for a “tough and hard” spring offensive, two government sources told Reuters.
They added that Afghanistan’s special forces from different institutions such as the military and police are being streamlined to operate under one command. Highly experienced commanders have been appointed to key areas, and security forces were planning to conduct more airstrikes to avoid losses on the ground.
An Afghan National Security Council spokesman said they were “ready for any kind of war”, though they remained in “active defence” mode.
Four Taliban sources said that most of their commanders had in recent weeks cut short annual training sessions after being called back to the battlefield to prepare for intensive fighting.
Three residents in areas dominated by the Taliban in north-eastern Afghanistan had noticed a pick-up in the group’s activity in recent weeks, telling Reuters they had seen Taliban fighters moving en masse, holding meetings in mosques and beginning food and recruitment drives.
“In the past two weeks the topics Taliban preachers preach, especially on Friday prayers… have changed,” said a tribal elder from Kunduz province who asked not to be named for security reasons. “They preach about… fighting against invasion, and they openly invite people to join them. It’s a clear message that they are preparing for another fight this spring.”
A member of what the Taliban considers its special forces told Reuters that the group was preparing to act when there was an announcement about foreign troops.
“If they don’t leave Afghanistan on the preset date then the USA, NATO and the world will face a dangerous war, a war that never happened in the past 20 years,” he said.
A Taliban spokesman did not reply to a request for comment on the spring offensive.
The administration of US President Joe Biden is reviewing its plans for Afghanistan, including whether to stick to the May 1 deadline in the troop withdrawal agreement former President Trump’s administration signed with the Taliban in February 2020.
Miller said his command recognised that foreign forces could be a target if the Taliban view the deal as breached.
Experts and diplomats see a vanishing window of opportunity for talks to survive, although sides say they are committed negotiating, Reuters reported.
“Talks seem already very close to falling apart,” said Ashley Jackson, co-director of the Centre for the Study of Armed Groups at the Overseas Development Institute. “The trouble is that (Washington) seems to grossly underestimate just how bad things could get and how quickly that could happen.”
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NRC warns one million Afghans returned from Pakistan at risk if unsupported

Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has issued a warning regarding the forced return of Afghan refugees and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.
In a report published on Friday, the NRC stated that more than one million Afghans, most of whom have been forcibly returned from Pakistan, are facing widespread poverty and economic collapse.
“Since Pakistan first announced its “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan” in September 2023, more than one million Afghans have now returned—the majority of which were forced to—into a country already strained by economic collapse, widespread poverty, and protection challenges,” the report read.
The report further predicts that an estimated 600,000 additional returnees are anticipated in 2025.
According to the organization, over one million Afghan migrants were also forced to return from Iran in 2024 alone.
The Norwegian Refugee Council emphasized that Afghanistan has experienced the largest internal displacement crisis in Asia and is now facing one of the largest population displacements.
The report stated: ” The lack of employment opportunities, in particular, severely impacts returning Afghans’ ability to take steps towards supporting their families and integrating into communities, especially for female-headed households.”
Meanwhile, the Islamic Emirate has stressed its commitment to addressing the problems of returnees and has called on both national and international donors and investors to assist in solving the issues faced by migrants.
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Position and power hold no value for a Muslim, says Chief of Army Staff

Fasihuddin Fitrat, the Chief of the Army Staff, says the aim of the Islamic Emirate’s jihad was not for positions, ranks, or seats of power but rather for the liberation of Afghanistan from the grip of American occupation and its allies.
Speaking at a gathering in Kabul on Saturday, Fitrat emphasized that the Islamic Emirate will spare no effort in serving the people.
“At the beginning of the jihad, the goal was that our Islamic homeland, Afghanistan, had been occupied by the Americans and their allies. Our Afghanistan had to be free and independent—an Afghanistan where all the people are Muslims and want an Islamic system and government. There must be an Islamic system here,” said Fitrat.
“Positions, ranks, and power hold absolutely no importance for a Muslim,” he added.
Other IEA officials also said that their uprising against the US occupation was aimed at establishing and strengthening an Islamic system in the country.
They emphasized that Afghanistan is now under unified leadership, and the entire population stands in solidarity with the current system of governance.
“Today, from east to west and north to south, Afghanistan has one leader, one flag, one command, and one voice… This is a great blessing witnessed by the history of Afghanistan.”
Meanwhile, a number of tribal elders at the gathering also pledged their support for the Islamic Emirate.
This comes as Islamic Emirate officials, in their meetings with the public in the capital and provinces, consistently call for unity against the enemies of the Islamic system and urge citizens not to fall for the conspiracies of those opposed to the current regime.
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Iran completes 100 kilometers of border wall with Afghanistan

Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, announced on Friday that 100 kilometers of wall construction along Iran’s border with Afghanistan in Razavi Khorasan Province have been completed.
During a visit to inspect the ongoing border fortification project, Bagheri told IRNA news agency that the wall will be equipped with advanced electronic and intelligent surveillance systems. He stressed that the project is crucial for maintaining long-term security, curbing the smuggling of narcotics, goods, and fuel, and preventing the unauthorized entry of migrants into Iran.
Despite continued diplomatic engagement and cooperation with Afghanistan since the Islamic Emirate’s return to power in 2021, Iran has repeatedly voiced concerns about the rise in undocumented migration and drug trafficking along its eastern border.
The full plan envisions the construction of a 300-kilometer barrier along the Iran-Afghanistan border in Razavi Khorasan, consisting of a four-meter-high wall.
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