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Peace talks ‘under threat’ as Taliban prepare for major spring offensive

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Unusually intense fighting in the winter by Taliban insurgents has spurred Afghan government preparations for more violence in the warmer spring, which international players fear will further endanger the nation’s fragile peace process, Reuters reported.

This comes after a sharp increase in attacks by the group since the signing of the US-Taliban agreement in Doha in February last year. 

General Scott Miller, the head of US forces and the NATO-led Resolute Support mission told Reuters that “Taliban violence is much higher than historical norms.”

“It just doesn’t create the conditions to move forward in what is hopefully a historic turning point for Afghanistan,” he said.

Typically fighting quietens down during the snowy winter months before the Taliban launch a “spring offensive” around March. However, this winter, fighting has been intense. 

Miller said that the fighting now was an indicator that not only would there be a spring offensive – a move many diplomats view as against the spirit of the Doha agreement – but that it could be more intense than before, Reuters reported.

This also comes as negotiations have largely stalled in Doha in recent weeks and Taliban leaders have left Qatar, a senior state department official said, leading to growing fears that talks could be on the brink of collapse.

“If the violence isn’t reduced, it’s going to make a peace process very, very difficult; it would be very difficult for any side to make the necessary compromises,” Miller said.

The Afghan government has instructed security forces to carry out a comprehensive troop restructuring and design operations to prepare for a “tough and hard” spring offensive, two government sources told Reuters.

They added that Afghanistan’s special forces from different institutions such as the military and police are being streamlined to operate under one command. Highly experienced commanders have been appointed to key areas, and security forces were planning to conduct more airstrikes to avoid losses on the ground.

An Afghan National Security Council spokesman said they were “ready for any kind of war”, though they remained in “active defence” mode.

Four Taliban sources said that most of their commanders had in recent weeks cut short annual training sessions after being called back to the battlefield to prepare for intensive fighting.

Three residents in areas dominated by the Taliban in north-eastern Afghanistan had noticed a pick-up in the group’s activity in recent weeks, telling Reuters they had seen Taliban fighters moving en masse, holding meetings in mosques and beginning food and recruitment drives.

“In the past two weeks the topics Taliban preachers preach, especially on Friday prayers… have changed,” said a tribal elder from Kunduz province who asked not to be named for security reasons. “They preach about… fighting against invasion, and they openly invite people to join them. It’s a clear message that they are preparing for another fight this spring.”

A member of what the Taliban considers its special forces told Reuters that the group was preparing to act when there was an announcement about foreign troops.

“If they don’t leave Afghanistan on the preset date then the USA, NATO and the world will face a dangerous war, a war that never happened in the past 20 years,” he said.

A Taliban spokesman did not reply to a request for comment on the spring offensive.

The administration of US President Joe Biden is reviewing its plans for Afghanistan, including whether to stick to the May 1 deadline in the troop withdrawal agreement former President Trump’s administration signed with the Taliban in February 2020.

Miller said his command recognised that foreign forces could be a target if the Taliban view the deal as breached.

Experts and diplomats see a vanishing window of opportunity for talks to survive, although sides say they are committed negotiating, Reuters reported.

“Talks seem already very close to falling apart,” said Ashley Jackson, co-director of the Centre for the Study of Armed Groups at the Overseas Development Institute. “The trouble is that (Washington) seems to grossly underestimate just how bad things could get and how quickly that could happen.”

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TAPI project sees rapid progress in Afghanistan

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Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate says work on the TAPI Pipeline is advancing steadily, with major infrastructure activities continuing at a rapid pace across the country.

Zabihullah Mujahid said around 130 kilometers of the route have been leveled so far, while 91 kilometers of pipeline have already been installed.

He said the total distance from the border of Turkmenistan to the Herat Industrial Park covers 153 kilometers, where the pipeline will extend.

According to Mujahid, completion of the project is expected to bring major economic transformation to Herat, with thousands of factories projected to become operational.

The 1,814-kilometer pipeline, including 816 kilometers passing through Afghanistan to Pakistan, is designed to transport 33 billion cubic meters of gas annually. Work on the Afghan section began in September 2024, with 52 percent completed so far, while the Herat section is expected to be finished by the end of 2026.

Once operational, the project is expected to provide Afghanistan with millions of dollars in annual transit revenue, while the country will also receive 500 million cubic meters of gas initially, increasing to 1 billion and later 1.5 billion cubic meters in future phases.

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Ashura observed across Afghanistan with calls for unity and justice

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Afghanistan marked the 10th of Muharram, the Day of Ashura, with religious ceremonies held across Kabul and several other provinces, as thousands of mourners gathered to commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussain (RA), the grandson of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH).

Ashura commemorates one of the most significant events in Islamic history, when Imam Hussain (RA) and 72 of his loyal companions were martyred in the Battle of Karbala. The occasion is observed annually across the Muslim world through prayers, mourning ceremonies, and acts of charity.

Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai described Ashura as an opportunity to strengthen national unity and solidarity. In a message marking the occasion, he expressed hope that Afghans would draw inspiration from the spiritual significance of Ashura and work together for the

progress, prosperity, and development of a united Afghanistan enriched by knowledge and education.

Religious scholars also emphasized that the uprising of Imam Hussain (RA) continues to symbolize justice, sacrifice, unity, and resistance against oppression, carrying a timeless message for Muslim societies and humanity as a whole.

Meanwhile, officials of the Islamic Emirate attending Ashura commemorations said all necessary measures had been taken to ensure religious ceremonies were held peacefully and securely across the country.

The Ministry of Interior also confirmed that extensive security measures had been implemented for Ashura, with large numbers of security personnel deployed to protect mourners, mosques, Hussainiyas, and other venues hosting commemorative events.

In Kabul and several other provinces, Ashura ceremonies concluded peacefully as worshippers observed the occasion through prayers, religious gatherings, and the distribution of food and charity in memory of the martyrs of Karbala.

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Afghanistan records historic 95% drop in opium production: UNODC

Afghan authorities maintain that the cultivation, production, and trafficking of narcotics in the country have been reduced to near zero under current enforcement measures.

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The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) says Afghanistan’s anti-narcotics campaign has achieved a “historic record” following a 95% reduction in opium poppy cultivation over the past three years, while warning that the growing production of synthetic drugs is emerging as a major global concern.

In an interview with Ariana News, the UNODC representative in Afghanistan said the narcotics situation in the country has changed significantly since the 2022 ban on the cultivation and production of illicit drugs, with sustained reductions recorded between 2023 and 2025.

UNODC representative Polleak Ok Serei described the development as unprecedented, saying the 95% reduction in poppy cultivation represents a major global milestone.

“In the past three years — 2023, 2024, and 2025 — the 95% reduction in opium poppy cultivation has been maintained. This is a remarkable achievement and a truly historic record. Previous efforts lasted only one year,” he said. “This is not only important for Afghanistan, but for the entire world, as Afghanistan previously produced around 80% of the global illicit opium supply.”

He added that following these developments, UNODC has adjusted its programs, shifting greater focus toward alternative livelihoods for farmers who previously depended on poppy cultivation.

According to him, while these efforts have shown progress, they remain insufficient due to Afghanistan’s broader humanitarian, economic, and environmental challenges.

UNODC also warned that the shift from traditional narcotics to synthetic drugs is creating new challenges for health systems, requiring updated medical responses and treatment approaches.

“We have had to adapt our activities accordingly,” the UN official said. “We are focusing heavily on alternative livelihoods for farmers, because those previously dependent on this production need new sources of income. We also had to reassess health interventions, particularly due to the shift from traditional drugs to synthetic drugs, which requires different medical approaches.”

The UN agency stressed that drug trafficking is a transnational issue requiring coordinated international cooperation among law enforcement and judicial authorities.

“Drug trafficking is a cross-border phenomenon. There are traffickers operating not only inside Afghanistan but also outside the country. Therefore, international cooperation between police and judicial authorities is essential,” he said.

UNODC called on neighboring countries and the international community to increase cooperation and investment in long-term solutions, including rural livelihoods, addiction treatment, and dismantling trafficking networks.

The statement comes as UNODC’s World Drug Report 2026 highlights rapid changes in global drug markets, driven by technology, instability, and the emergence of new synthetic substances.

According to the report, global drug production and trafficking patterns are shifting significantly, particularly in the opioid market. While Afghanistan’s opium production has sharply declined since 2022, production increases in countries such as Myanmar have not fully offset global supply changes, leading traffickers to increasingly turn toward synthetic opioids such as fentanyl and other highly potent substances.

The report warns that these new synthetic drugs can be significantly more powerful and deadly than traditional narcotics, posing serious risks to public health and security worldwide.

UNODC also noted that rising global demand for drugs such as methamphetamine and cocaine is expanding trafficking routes into new regions, including Africa and Asia, further complicating international control efforts.

Meanwhile, Afghan authorities maintain that the cultivation, production, and trafficking of narcotics in the country have been reduced to near zero under current enforcement measures.

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