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Still a risk of military conflict in Ukraine: Analyst

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A U.S.-based analyst warned Wednesday that “the risk of military conflict is still very much in play,” echoing United States and NATO’s claims that Russia was still building up troops around Ukraine despite Moscow’s insistence it was pulling back.

“There are real reasons to be skeptical, and in my view, it’s just as plausible that these gestures towards diplomacy (Putin’s) really could be about buying more time in order to move forces into position. And I think to shape the narrative, right, so that Russia can try to present itself as a responsible global actor trying to resolve this politically,” Andrea Kendall-Taylor of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) told Reuters TV questioning President Vladimir Putin’s stated desire to negotiate a solution to the crisis.

“He (Putin) doesn’t threaten things that he isn’t prepared to do. I’m sure he’s thought through those scenarios, and it’s likely to me that they are at least prepared to do that if they view that that’s necessary to advancing Russian objectives, ” she added.

Russia’s defense ministry said its forces – part of a huge buildup that has been accompanied by demands to the West for sweeping security guarantees – were pulling back after exercises in southern and western military districts near Ukraine.

Russia said on Tuesday some of its troops were returning to base after exercises near Ukraine, but NATO and the United States said they had yet to see any evidence of a de-escalation that could avert war, Reuters reported.

US President Joe Biden responded that Washington had not yet verified the demobilization, and said Russia still very much posed a threat.

“We have not yet verified the Russian military units are returning to their home bases. Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position. And the fact remains, right now, Russia has more than 150000 troops encircling Ukraine and Belarus and along Ukraine’s border.”

Russia did not say how many units were pulling back.

Its deployment of some 130,000 troops to the north, east and south of Ukraine triggered alarms in Western capitals that a military operation could be imminent.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, denied again his country sought conflict.

“Do we want it or not? Of course, not. That is why we have offered our proposals to start the negotiation process, which should lead to an agreement of providing equal security for everybody, including our country.”

Speaking from the White House, Biden said he was committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

But he warned the Russian people that military aggression in Ukraine would be bloody, costly, and would be met with international condemnation.

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Houthi advance in Yemen puts U.S. in a new bind

The U.S. administration can’t afford to have the Houthis close ​the strait, driving up energy prices and disrupting global trade.

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A lightning offensive by the Iran-aligned Houthis has put the militants in a position to control a crucial Middle East waterway, creating a major new problem for U.S. President Donald ​Trump as his war with Iran grinds on in its seventh month, Reuters reported.

Widening the Middle East conflict, Houthi fighters have advanced south along Yemen’s coast, increasing their ability to choke off the Bab el-Mandeb ‌Strait — the “Gate of Tears” at the mouth of the Red Sea — giving Tehran potential leverage over both of the region’s main oil-shipping corridors.

The militants reached the island of Perim on Friday, in the middle of the strait between Yemen and Africa. That is bad news for Saudi Arabia, which has been shipping much of its oil from Red Sea ports since the war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula.

It also comes at a difficult time for Trump, who is already grappling with record-low approval ratings and searching ​for a way out of the conflict, most recently by announcing an economic pressure campaign designed to force concessions from Iran’s government.

High U.S. gasoline prices driven by the conflict have jeopardized his Republican Party’s chances of keeping ​control of Congress in the November midterm elections. Iran remains defiant despite being hurt militarily and economically.

“Just weeks ago, Trump adopted a strategy of squeezing Iran’s economy while keeping military ⁠conflict at levels too low to squeeze the American economy,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The Houthis have shattered Trump’s plan.”

The U.S. administration can’t afford to have the Houthis close ​the strait, driving up energy prices and disrupting global trade.

But at the same time, entering a fight with a foe that has withstood previous attacks by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. would be a dangerous new mission for a U.S. military already ​stretched by the fighting in Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, phoned Trump on Thursday and asked for U.S. military help fighting the Houthis, three sources told Reuters. He was told Washington would not intervene directly for now but would help with intelligence, the sources said.

Trump confirmed on Saturday that he had spoken to the crown prince, and said the Houthis had also phoned his administration and asked for Washington not to become directly involved in the conflict, read the report.

A senior Trump administration official declined to address specific questions, but said ​the U.S. is focused on national security interests such as ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea “while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges”.

Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Houthis did not respond ​to a request for comment. Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday that the Yemen conflict could not be solved by blockade or military action against the Houthis and called for dialogue, without addressing Iran’s own role.

Iran responded to ‌U.S. and Israeli ⁠attacks earlier this year by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet to the Gulf through which around a fifth of global oil supplies flowed before the war.

If the Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb, that would deal another economic blow, constraining another 7% of global petroleum supplies and about 12% of global trade.

“This was always the worst-case scenario, that the Iranians exert control not only of Strait of Hormuz but Bab el-Mandeb, two of the leading energy choke points in the world,” said David Schenker, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs during Trump’s first term and is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank.

“It’s an enormous amount of leverage that [the Iranians] have in hand.”

Analysts and former officials say Trump ​now faces a choice: devote U.S. forces and scarce ​air-defense munitions to pushing back the Houthis, or leave ⁠Saudi Arabia and its allies, a Yemeni government based in the south, to confront them alone.

The Houthis seized Yemen’s capital 12 years ago, and a Saudi-led military intervention has failed to dislodge them since.

Taking on the Houthis would effectively end a deal Trump struck last year in which the U.S. would stop bombing the group in exchange for a halt to strikes ​on Red Sea shipping. That would be likely to expose U.S. forces to missile attacks from Yemen.

It would also be another burden for the U.S. ​military.

U.S. officials say a fight with ⁠the Houthis could require significant naval and aerial resources and divert U.S. intelligence assets, given the need to pinpoint Houthi positions that have changed since last year.

If U.S. Navy vessels and aircraft have to start shooting down Houthi drones and missiles, it could also worsen diminished stockpiles of U.S. munitions and air-defense interceptors.

The senior administration official denied that the U.S. was concerned about its resources being stretched. “The United States Military has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of the Commander-in-Chief’s strategic goals and beyond,” ⁠the official said.

Tim ​Lenderking, who served as U.S. special envoy on Yemen under former President Joe Biden and is now a principal at law firm Squire Patton ​Boggs, said that with Trump signaling an unwillingness to get directly involved militarily against the Houthis, the U.S. needs to do more to share intelligence with the Saudis for their air campaign and step up diplomatic and material support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

“This administration came in asking the question, ‘What can ​Yemen do for us?’” Lenderking said during a webcast sponsored by the Middle East Institute think-tank in Washington. “Well, Yemen can spoil our day.”

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Trump says he does not regret Iran war despite potential impact on midterm elections

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U.S. President Donald Trump says he does not regret launching the war against Iran, despite its potential impact on the November midterm elections.

In an interview with Fox News host Laura Ingraham, Trump said that if given the choice again, he would take the same course of action, adding that he does not believe in the word “regret.”

Trump also dismissed suggestions that some of his supporters had become upset or demoralized over the war, saying they were proud that he was preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

He also reiterated his claim that the war would end immediately after the midterm elections, saying, “It ends right after the election.”

The conflict and the resulting rise in oil and gas prices have become a major political issue for Republicans ahead of the elections.

The United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, while Iran responded with strikes on Israel and Gulf states hosting U.S. military bases. The fighting has reportedly killed thousands and displaced millions.

Trump has cited the weakening of Iran’s nuclear capabilities as one of the main objectives of the war. Iran, however, says its uranium-enrichment program is peaceful and maintains that it does not possess nuclear weapons.

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Trump touts $5,000 payout if Republicans win as Vance waits in wings

It was not immediately clear how the $5,000 payments ​would work or whether they would be legal. The proposal would likely cost more than $1 trillion, with approximately 270 million ⁠U.S. adults, and could require the approval of Congress.

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President Donald Trump capped the first day of his Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention by proposing to pay every U.S. adult a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if his ​party wins November’s congressional elections.

Trump delivered the extraordinary overture during a primetime speech that lasted nearly two hours and firmly placed him at the ‌center of the midterm campaign at a time when his sagging approval ratings could weigh on Republicans’ chances, Reuters reported.

Vice President JD Vance will give the keynote address on Thursday night, though Trump is scheduled to make closing remarks to bring the made-for-television two-day event in Dallas to an end.

With Trump constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, Vance’s speech could serve as an early audition ​for the 2028 presidential election and offer clues about how he would lead a party reshaped by Trump.

It was not immediately clear how the $5,000 payments ​would work or whether they would be legal. The proposal would likely cost more than $1 trillion, with approximately 270 million ⁠U.S. adults, and could require the approval of Congress.

The convention’s focus on Trump – some Republicans have dubbed it “Trumpapalooza” – amounts to a risky bet that he can mobilize ​the voters who carried him to the presidency two years ago, despite opinion polls showing his popularity is at an all-time low.

But it remains to be seen whether ​his campaign-style speech will appeal to the critical swing voters who have drifted away from Trump’s party amid growing dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the war on Iran.

‘PRETEND THAT I’M ON THE BALLOT’

“I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot,” Trump said, a line that may have pleased Democratic campaign strategists just as much as MAGA voters.

Republican efforts ​got a boost from an unlikely source on Wednesday, when Democratic U.S. Senator John Fetterman appeared in a pretaped video segment introducing his “great friend,” fellow Pennsylvania Senator Dave ​McCormick, a Republican.

Fetterman said he would always “reject the extremes in socialism,” a comment that is likely to bolster Republican attacks on Democrats as too left-wing. Fetterman, who has increasingly broken ‌with his ⁠fellow Democrats, has nevertheless rejected speculation that he might leave the party.

Some vulnerable Republicans in tough races, perhaps mindful of tying themselves too closely to the unpopular Trump, elected to skip the affair, including Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Senator Susan Collins of Maine.

DEMOCRATS PORTRAYED AS ‘SOCIALISTS’ AND ‘COMMUNISTS’

While Republican officials had described the convention as an opportunity to tout Trump’s policies, most speakers focused on attacking Democrats as extreme on topics such as transgender women in sports and border security – political red meat ​for core Trump supporters.

Alabama state Representative Ernie ​Yarbrough, a convention attendee, said Trump ⁠needs to give voters a clearer sense of how long the war in Iran could last.

“People want to feel like we’re not getting stuck in an endless cycle,” he said.

Trump defended his decision to attack Iran, saying he acted to prevent ​Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. He also promised that oil prices would drop “as soon as we win the ​war with Iran,” which ⁠he vowed would happen soon.

But the conflict shows little sign of ending more than six months after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, and analysts have said Iran’s nuclear program has not been eliminated. Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon.

Before Trump took the stage, a parade of speakers called Democrats “socialists” and “communists,” echoing one of Trump’s favorite ⁠attack lines. ​Democrats are “dangerous, radical and weird,” said Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, the chairman of the ​party’s Senate campaign arm.

The stakes are high for both parties. With the elections less than two months away, Republicans face the prospect of losing control of at least one chamber of Congress, with public ​polling showing Democrats more motivated to vote and Trump’s approval ratings deeply underwater.

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