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Turkey votes in pivotal elections that could end Erdogan’s 20-year rule

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Turks voted on Sunday in one of the most important elections in modern Turkey’s 100-year history, which could either unseat President Tayyip Erdogan and halt his government’s increasingly authoritarian path or usher in a third decade of his rule.

The vote will decide not only who leads Turkey, a NATO-member country of 85 million, but also how it is governed, where its economy is headed amid a deep cost of living crisis, and the shape of its foreign policy, which has taken unpredictable turns, Reuters reported.

Opinion polls give Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads an alliance of six opposition parties, a slight lead, but if either of them fail to get more than 50% of the vote there will be a runoff election on May 28.

Voters will also elect a new parliament, likely a tight race between the People’s Alliance comprising Erdogan’s conservative Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP) and the nationalist MHP and others, and Kilicdaroglu’s Nation Alliance formed of six opposition parties, including his secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), established by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Polls opened at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) and will close at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT). Under Turkish law, the reporting of any results is banned until 9 p.m. By late on Sunday there could be a good indication of whether there will be a runoff vote for the presidency.

In Diyarbakir, a city in the mainly Kurdish southeast which was hit by a devastating earthquake in February, some said they had voted for the opposition and others for Erdogan.

“A change is needed for the country,” said Nuri Can, 26, who cited Turkey’s economic crisis as the reason for voting for Kilicdaroglu. “After the election there will be an economic crisis at the door again, so I wanted change.”

But Hayati Arslan, 51, said he had voted for Erdogan and his AK Party.

“The country’s economic situation is not good but I still believe that Erdogan will fix this situation. Turkey’s prestige abroad has reached a very good point with Erdogan and I want this to continue,” he said.

Queues formed at polling stations in the city, with some 9,000 police officers on duty across the province.

Many in the provinces affected by the earthquake, which killed more than 50,000 people, have expressed anger over the slow initial government response but there is little evidence that the issue has changed how people will vote.

Kurdish voters, who account for 15-20% of the electorate, will play a pivotal role, with the Nation Alliance unlikely to attain a parliamentary majority by itself.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is not part of the main opposition alliance but fiercely opposes Erdogan after a crackdown on its members in recent years.

The HDP has declared its support for Kilicdaroglu in the presidential race. It is entering the parliamentary elections under the emblem of the small Green Left Party due to a court case filed by a top prosecutor seeking to ban the HDP over links to Kurdish militants, which the party denies.

If Turks do oust Erdogan it will be largely because they saw their prosperity, equality and ability to meet basic needs decline, with inflation that topped 85% in Oct. 2022 and a collapse in the lira currency.

Kilicdaroglu, a 74-year-old former civil servant, promises that if he wins he will return to orthodox economic policies from Erdogan’s heavy management.

Kilicdaroglu also says he would seek to return the country to the parliamentary system of governance, from Erdogan’s executive presidential system passed in a referendum in 2017. He has also promised to restore the independence of a judiciary that critics say Erdogan has used to crack down on dissent.

In his time in power, Erdogan has taken tight control of most of Turkey’s institutions and sidelined liberals and critics. Human Rights Watch, in its World Report 2022, said Erdogan’s government has set back Turkey’s human rights record by decades.

If he wins, Kilicdaroglu faces challenges keeping united an opposition alliance that includes nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals.

The final days of the campaign were marked by accusations of foreign meddling.

Kilicdaroglu said his party had concrete evidence of Russia’s responsibility for the release of “deep fake” online content, which Moscow denied. Erdogan accused the opposition of working with U.S. President Joe Biden to topple him. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Washington does not take sides in elections.

World

Trump says further US attacks on Iran ‘highly unlikely’ as peace talks gain momentum

Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.

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US President Donald Trump has said further American military strikes against Iran are “highly unlikely”, signalling a possible shift towards de-escalation as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict gather momentum.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, Trump said Iran was effectively defeated militarily and suggested Washington was prepared to maintain the current situation while negotiations continued.

“Iran militarily is effectively over,” Trump said, adding that there was “positive momentum” behind efforts to reach an agreement.

“We’re just keeping it the status quo,” he said, explaining that the decision was largely being taken at the request of neighbouring countries.

Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.

“We’re locked and loaded,” he said, while describing further strikes as “highly unlikely”.

The comments come amid growing pressure on the Trump administration to bring the conflict to an end, following bruising midterm election results for Republicans last week. 

Several senior party figures, including Vice-President JD Vance, have pointed to the war as a factor behind the party’s poor performance.

Trump had previously indicated that US forces carried out what he described as limited strikes on an Iranian island near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. 

However, in a television interview broadcast on Sunday, he said he currently saw no reason to escalate the military campaign.

He also stopped short of formally declaring the war over, arguing that Washington still had to protect its Gulf allies from possible Iranian attacks.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, he suggested, was helping maintain security across the region.

Global oil prices fell further following Trump’s latest remarks, with Brent crude dropping more than 1% to around $91.50 a barrel, while US crude also declined.

Gulf diplomacy intensifies

Trump’s comments followed a meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani at the White House on Monday.

The US president described their discussions as excellent, while the Qatari leader said he had held positive talks with Trump and Vance on reaching an agreement and restoring regional peace.

Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have largely been conducted through intermediaries since the war erupted following joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran in February.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are among Washington’s Gulf partners that have been targeted by Iranian attacks during the conflict, while security concerns have also caused significant disruption to regional air travel.

Political pressure mounts in Washington

Meanwhile, the war is generating further political tensions in Washington.

Republican Congressman Thomas Massie on Monday announced plans to force a House of Representatives vote this week on impeaching Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth over his handling of the conflict.

Hegseth, who has received Trump’s backing, dismissed the threat, describing Massie’s effort as a “sham”.

The impeachment initiative is unlikely to succeed while Republicans retain control of Congress. However, Democrats have indicated they could pursue the matter when the new congressional session begins in January.

For Trump, the challenge is increasingly twofold: finding a diplomatic exit from the conflict while managing mounting political pressure at home and reassuring US allies across the Gulf.

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First Muslim US senator-elect El-Sayed calls for review of aid to Pakistan

He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.

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Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate, has called on Washington to reconsider its financial and military assistance to Pakistan and several other countries, arguing that American taxpayer money should not be used to support violations of international law.

El-Sayed, a Democrat who recently defeated Republican candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan, said the United States must ensure that its foreign assistance policies are consistent with international law.

In an interview with ABC, he stressed that the issue should not be limited to Israel, but should also include Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan.

“When we are giving money to a country that is using our money to violate international law, that seems to me a good place to start,” El-Sayed said.

His remarks come after US President Donald Trump announced plans to end approximately $4 billion in annual military assistance to Israel by the end of the year.

El-Sayed welcomed Trump’s proposal to reduce military aid to Israel, saying he agreed with the president’s approach.

He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.

The United States currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military assistance under an agreement that remains in effect until 2028.

However, El-Sayed’s criticism extends beyond Israel. He has also questioned US military assistance to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Pakistan, arguing that American taxpayer money should instead be directed towards domestic priorities.

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World

Houthi-run health ministry says airstrikes kill 33 near Yemen capital

The ministry said the strikes ​hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold ​east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.

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At least 33 people were killed and 39 wounded in what the Houthi-run Saba news agency said ​were Saudi airstrikes on a village near Yemen’s capital Sanaa ‌on Saturday, in one of the deadliest reported attacks since fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned group resumed in July.

Reuters could not independently verify the account. ​Saudi Arabia’s Center for International Communication said it was investigating the report.

The ​renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has shattered ⁠a 2022 UN-brokered truce that largely halted attacks between the Saudi-led ​coalition and the group, which controls Sanaa. The Houthis have since launched ​missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, while Riyadh has carried out airstrikes in Yemen in support of its Yemeni allies.

The ministry said the strikes ​hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold ​east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.

Abdul-Aziz al-Dailami, ‌director ⁠of Sehatuna Hospital in Sanaa, said many victims remained trapped under the rubble, including first responders.

“The strikes keep coming. Just as rescuers arrive, another strike hits. We have even lost some of our own medical responders, ​who have been martyred,” ​he told Reuters.

“We ⁠received a number of wounded individuals in very critical condition, with injuries to the head, chest and legs, ​as well as fractures,” al-Dailami added.

The fighting, a spillover ​from the ⁠wider US-Iran conflict, has revived a complex 12-year war in Yemen that has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises globally and fragmented the Arab world’s most ⁠impoverished ​country.

The number of people displaced since the ​latest round of fighting began has climbed to more than 200,000, the International Organization for Migration said ​in October.

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