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UNDP warns curbs on women’s rights will worsen economic catastrophe in Afghanistan
A new study of Afghanistan’s economy shows that without continuity for girls’ education and women’s ability to work, prospects for the country’s recovery will remain grim.
The study, “Afghanistan Socio-Economic Outlook 2023”, released Tuesday in Kabul by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), details how Afghanistan’s economic output collapsed by 20.7 percent following the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s takeover in 2021. “This unparalleled shock has kept Afghanistan among the poorest countries in the world,” the agency said.
Despite tentative signs of recovery, such as a relatively stable exchange rate, an increase in exports, growing demand for labor, and muted inflation, GDP is estimated to have further declined by 3.6 percent in 2022, the report noted.
“A sustained inflow of foreign aid, to the tune of $3.7 billion in 2022, has helped avert the total collapse of Afghanistan,” said UNDP Resident Representative in Afghanistan Abdallah Al Dardari.
The United Nations (UN) contributed $3.2 billion of the overall $3.7 billion in foreign aid to Afghanistan in 2022. UN assistance directly reached 26.1 million Afghans with some form of aid, while helping to stabilize the exchange rate, curb inflation and affect other economic indicators.
The new report projects that the 2023 GDP in Afghanistan could increase by 1.3 percent if the level of foreign aid remains at $3.7 billion. However, prospects for economic recovery remain weak and insufficient over the long term, especially if foreign aid is withheld as a result of restrictive IEA policies, UNDP stated.
“There will be no sustainable recovery without the active participation of Afghan women in the economy and in public life, which includes delivering on humanitarian and livelihoods-saving projects,” said UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, Kanni Wignaraja. “Only the full continuity of girls’ education and women’s ability to pursue work and learning can keep the hope of any real progress alive.”
The new UNDP paper analyzes the potential impact of a hypothetical aid cut on Afghanistan’s economy. Using an indicative value of a 30 percent reduction in aid from $3.7 billion to $2.6 billion, UNDP projects that Afghanistan’s GDP would further contract by 0.4 percent, a decline that would send the country hurtling to the bottom of the global poverty scale.
The study notes that impoverished Afghans are already taking extreme measures to survive. “Some have been compelled to sell their homes, land, or assets that generate income; others have resorted to the distressing practice of commodifying their own family members, turning children into laborers and young daughters into brides,” the report states.
“Afghanistan is on the brink of economic collapse, exacerbated with the takeover in August 2021. The effects of the pandemic, followed by an extraordinary 20.7 percent contraction of the economy, and an unusually severe drought, have resulted in the loss of food, livelihoods and access to basic services,” said UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner in a statement. “Only the continued provision of international aid and basic services to millions of Afghans have prevented a full collapse.”
The research finds that the number of people living in poverty skyrocketed from 19 million in 2020 to 34 million in 2022. “If foreign aid is reduced this year, Afghanistan may fall from the cliff edge into the abyss,” Al Dardari cautioned.
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US State Department: Afghanistan fails to meet minimum fiscal transparency standards
The U.S. Department of State says Afghanistan’s ministries and other public-sector institutions failed to meet any of the minimum requirements for fiscal transparency during the review period.
In its 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report, released Tuesday, the State Department said no Afghan entity had published an executive budget proposal or an end-of-year report within a reasonable timeframe.
The report said that in the absence of a publicly available budget, there was no confirmation of government expenditures made to support public services. It also said Afghan institutions had not published timely information on public-sector debt obligations.
According to the report, publicly available revenue and expenditure figures did not correspond to actual revenues and expenditures, based on information gathered through contacts and the government’s inability to service public-sector debts.
However, some state-owned enterprises independently published information on their revenues and expenditures.
The State Department also said an entity calling itself the Supreme Audit Office, which announced that it would begin operating in 2022, had not clarified the legal basis for its activities and did not publish any audits or audit findings during the review period.
The report further noted that the IEA did not make public the budgets of their “military” and intelligence services.
The U.S. State Department recommended that Afghan ministries and public institutions improve fiscal transparency by publishing reliable budget documents on time, following internationally accepted budgeting principles, strengthening oversight of off-budget accounts, and making information on public-sector debt publicly available.
It also called for clearer laws governing natural-resource extraction and public procurement, as well as ensuring that any supreme audit institution operates independently and meets international standards.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Emirate’s spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, said Afghanistan’s budget does not belong to any other country, and therefore there is no obligation to provide information to others about how it is spent.
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FAO warns water shortages and heat put Afghanistan’s agriculture under pressure
FAO assessed current conditions and prospects using climate forecasts, remote-sensing data and consultations with farming communities across all 34 provinces.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that water shortages and above-average temperatures are placing increasing pressure on summer crops and grazing across Afghanistan.
In its August 2026 outlook for Afghanistan’s 2026/27 agricultural season, FAO assessed current conditions and prospects using climate forecasts, remote-sensing data and consultations with farming communities across all 34 provinces.
The agency said persistent water shortages, combined with high temperatures, are affecting agricultural conditions during the summer season and increasing pressure on crops and livestock.
FAO also warned that persistently high fertilizer prices could limit farmers’ ability to invest in the upcoming winter wheat season, potentially affecting production prospects.
Looking ahead, the report says a strengthening El Niño and the possible development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could bring above-average precipitation during winter and spring.
Such conditions could improve water availability and boost prospects for agricultural production, but FAO cautioned that heavier rainfall could also increase the risk of floods, landslides, crop damage and livestock losses.
The agency said the latest outlook highlights the need for continued monitoring, anticipatory action and timely, practical climate and agricultural advisories to help farmers and livestock owners prepare for changing conditions.
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Hana raises concerns over Afghan women and children amid Iran’s expulsion policy
It said the risks are particularly serious for children born in Iran or those who have spent much of their lives there.
The Hana Human Rights Organization has raised serious concerns over the situation of Afghan women and children in Iran, saying the country’s plan to regulate and expel undocumented Afghan nationals remains in effect.
According to Hana, Iran’s Ministry of Interior has confirmed that the “Plan for the Regulation and Expulsion of Unauthorized Afghan Nationals” has not been suspended.
The organization said the policy is continuing amid the consequences of armed conflict and an increasingly securitized environment in Iran, which it said has heightened the vulnerability of Afghan migrants and asylum seekers.
Hana said it has previously documented cases involving the arrest and mistreatment of Afghan nationals, deportations, family separation and difficulties obtaining civil documentation and accessing essential services.
The organization warned that continued implementation of the expulsion policy could worsen these problems.
Hana expressed particular concern for Afghan children under 18, stressing that children’s rights are independent of their parents’ migration status.
It said irregular residence should not, by itself, justify a child’s detention, separation from family or removal without an individualized assessment. Any decision affecting a child, it added, should prioritize the child’s best interests, preserve family unity and provide additional safeguards for unaccompanied and separated children.
The organization warned that large-scale expulsions without clear procedures to identify and protect children at risk could result in family separation, disruption to education, lack of legal protection, difficulties establishing legal identity, exploitation and return to unsafe conditions.
It said the risks are particularly serious for children born in Iran or those who have spent much of their lives there.
Hana also highlighted gender-specific risks facing Afghan women and girls. It warned that deportation to Afghanistan without assessing risks linked to gender, previous political or social activities, family circumstances and access to support networks could expose them to serious human rights violations.
The organization said being classified as an “unauthorized foreign national” should not replace an individual assessment of a person’s protection needs and the risks they may face upon return.
Hana stressed that while states have the authority to regulate the entry and residence of foreign nationals, migration enforcement must comply with international human rights principles, including non-refoulement, the prohibition of collective expulsion, access to individualized procedures and respect for family unity.
It called for heightened protection for women and children, warning that continuing the expulsion plan without effective legal and protection safeguards could lead to further human rights violations against Afghan migrants and asylum seekers in Iran.
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