Business
Afghan economy posts second year of growth despite deep structural challenges
The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.
Afghanistan’s economy is set to record a second consecutive year of growth, supported by low inflation and stronger domestic revenues, but deep structural challenges continue to weigh heavily on the country’s long-term outlook.
According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Development Update, cited by Himalaya Diary, gross domestic product is projected to expand by 4.3 percent in 2025, following an estimated 2.5 percent growth in 2024.
The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.
Agriculture has shown relative resilience, with a record irrigated wheat harvest achieved despite severe drought conditions. Mining and construction have also contributed to overall output growth, helping sustain economic momentum.
However, the recovery has not translated into improved living standards. Rapid population growth, estimated at 8.6 percent in 2025, is expected to push GDP per capita down by around 4 percent. Inflation remains low at about 2 percent — among the lowest in the region — reflecting stable food prices and a stronger currency, but also highlighting Afghanistan’s reliance on imports and exposure to external shocks.
On the fiscal front, domestic revenues have improved, with tax collection projected to reach 17.1 percent of GDP in 2025 as enforcement measures tighten. At the same time, declining foreign grants are shrinking the overall fiscal space, increasing reliance on trade taxes and continued donor support.
The financial sector remains under strain. Banks face regulatory uncertainty, rising non-performing loans and weak credit growth, while liquidity pressures persist as more cash circulates outside the formal system. Limited access to banking services and the transition to Islamic finance have further constrained financial inclusion.
Labour market pressures are also mounting. Nearly one in four young Afghans is unemployed, and restrictions on women’s education and economic participation are undermining human capital and long-term growth prospects. These challenges are compounded by one of the largest return migration waves in recent years, with an estimated 4 to 4.7 million people returning between late 2023 and mid-2025, intensifying pressure on jobs and public services, particularly in urban and border areas.
The World Bank warns that sustaining the recovery will require reforms to attract private investment, strengthen the financial system and diversify exports. Improved governance, a more supportive business environment and stronger engagement with international partners will be critical if Afghanistan is to reduce its reliance on humanitarian aid and move toward more resilient and inclusive growth.
Business
UAE firm eyes investment in Salang’s second tunnel and pharmaceutical factories
The proposals will be submitted to the Inter-Ministerial Investment Committee for further review and discussion.
A United Arab Emirates-based company, HHM Global Industry Group, has expressed interest in investing in the construction of the second Salang Tunnel and establishing pharmaceutical factories in Afghanistan.
The issue was discussed at a regular meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Investment Committee, held on September 8, 2026, at the Marble Palace under the Economic Deputy Office of the Prime Minister’s Office.
The committee welcomed the company’s interest in investing in Afghanistan and assured its representatives that the relevant ministries and government agencies are prepared to provide comprehensive cooperation.
Following extensive discussions, company officials were asked to prepare detailed investment proposals for the construction of the second Salang Tunnel, pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities, as well as other potential investment projects.
The proposals will be submitted to the Inter-Ministerial Investment Committee for further review and discussion.
If implemented, the proposed investments could contribute to the development of Afghanistan’s transport infrastructure and strengthen domestic pharmaceutical production.
Business
Saudi energy group signs major Afghanistan deals covering gas exploration and pipeline plans
The agreements cover exploration across the Kushk and Tirpul contract area in Herat, spanning approximately 23,317 square kilometers.
Saudi Arabia’s Delta Energy Group has signed a series of agreements with Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum covering hydrocarbon exploration, natural gas utilization in Herat and a proposed regional gas pipeline.
According to a statement issued by Delta Energy on September 6, the agreements cover exploration across the Kushk and Tirpul contract area in Herat, spanning approximately 23,317 square kilometers.
Under the agreements, Delta Energy will conduct geological and geophysical studies, seismic surveys, exploration drilling and reservoir evaluations to determine the scale and commercial potential of Afghanistan’s hydrocarbon resources.
The company will also finance a study on the utilization of natural gas for Herat Industrial Park, Herat city and other approved areas, including potential applications in industry and power generation.
A separate agreement provides a framework to assess the proposed 700-kilometre CentGas “Corridor of Prosperity” pipeline, which would potentially connect a gas receipt point near Guzara district in Herat with a delivery point near Spin Boldak in Kandahar.
Delta Energy estimates the proposed pipeline could require about $10 billion in investment over 10 years, subject to technical and economic feasibility, financing, regulatory approvals and a final investment decision.
The company said the broader integrated programme could represent tens of billions of dollars in potential investment over the coming years, covering exploration, field development, gas utilization and related infrastructure. However, all subsequent phases will depend on exploration results, commercial viability, financing and required approvals.
Sheikh Badr Mohammed Al-Aiban, chairman of Delta International Holding Group, said the project was more than an oil and gas investment, describing it as an opportunity to develop an integrated energy ecosystem that could create jobs, support industry and improve regional connectivity.
Afghanistan’s Minister of Mines and Petroleum, Hidayatullah Badri, welcomed the agreements, saying cooperation with Delta Energy could help advance exploration of the country’s hydrocarbon resources, strengthen energy security and support economic activity.
Business
Imam Abu Hanifa exhibition to draw exhibitors from more than 20 countries
Representatives from more than 20 countries are expected to attend, including Russia, India, Türkiye and Japan.
The fifth Imam Abu Hanifa National and International Exhibition will be held in Kabul from October 7 to 13, the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment (ACCI) says.
Representatives from more than 20 countries are expected to attend, including Russia, India, Türkiye and Japan.
Ahmad Shakil Hazim, ACCI’s Deputy for Policy and Technical Affairs, said the exhibition would give traders, investors and producers an opportunity to showcase their products and expand business ties with international markets.
Economic experts say international trade exhibitions can strengthen commercial relations between Afghan and foreign businesses and help attract investment.
The fourth edition of the exhibition was held in Kabul last year, with officials saying trade agreements and contracts worth more than $700 million were signed between Afghan and foreign traders on the sidelines of the event.
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