Canada models hypothetical response to US attack amid rising tensions

Canada has quietly developed a military response model for a hypothetical attack by the United States, marking the first time in more than a century that Ottawa has formally examined a potential conflict with its closest ally, according to a report by The Globe and Mail.

Federal officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the planning exercise does not reflect an expectation of war but rather a worst-case contingency scenario amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. A U.S. military attack on Canada is considered highly unlikely, they stressed.

According to the report, Canada’s armed forces would be unable to withstand a full-scale U.S. assault using conventional means.

As a result, the scenario envisions a shift toward unconventional resistance, including small, mobile cells of military personnel and civilians employing ambush tactics, drone operations, and sabotage.

Officials said Canada could be overwhelmed at key military locations within two days to a week, prompting a strategy designed to delay and disrupt occupying forces rather than defeat them outright.

The report emerged hours after U.S. President Donald Trump shared a provocative image on social media depicting the American flag covering Canada and Greenland, a post that drew criticism and concern in diplomatic circles.

Canada would also expect assistance from NATO allies, particularly nuclear-armed members such as Britain and France, in the event of any invasion, the officials said.

Canada and the United States are both NATO members and long-standing defence partners through NORAD.

Retired Major-General David Fraser, who previously commanded Canadian forces in Afghanistan, told the newspaper that an attack on Canada would likely trigger a strong international response.

“If you come after Canada, you are going to have the world coming after you,” Fraser said, adding that allied naval and air forces could be deployed to reinforce Canadian sovereignty.

The revelations come as world leaders gather at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where concerns about the erosion of the rules-based international order and rising unilateralism by major powers have dominated discussions.

Canadian officials at Davos have emphasized the importance of sovereignty, alliance solidarity, and collective security, particularly in light of tensions involving Greenland and Arctic security.

Canada’s Chief of the Defence Staff, General Jennie Carignan, has previously called for the creation of a 400,000-strong reserve volunteer force, underscoring broader efforts to strengthen national defence preparedness.

While officials insist the scenario is theoretical, the planning reflects Ottawa’s growing focus on resilience and preparedness in an increasingly unpredictable global security environment.