Nearly 19.2 million people in Afghanistan are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity during the coming winter, while acute malnutrition cases are expected to rise to four million in 2027, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have warned.

According to a joint statement issued by the two UN agencies, the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis estimates that 38 percent of Afghanistan’s population will face acute food insecurity during the November 2026-April 2027 lean season, an increase from the 17.4 million people projected to face similar conditions during the same period a year earlier.

The agencies warned that around five million people will face emergency levels of hunger, classified as IPC Phase 4. This is double the number projected for April-September 2026 and means immediate food assistance and urgent emergency agricultural support are needed to prevent deaths and the collapse of livelihoods.

The most severe food insecurity classifications are projected in Badakhshan, Badghis, Daykundi, Ghor, Samangan, Sar-e-Pul and rural Ghazni.

Child Malnutrition Expected to Rise by Nearly 10 Percent

The UN agencies said acute malnutrition is increasingly defining Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis, with mothers and children among those most affected.

Malnutrition cases are expected to increase by nearly 10 percent compared with 2026, reaching four million in 2027. One-quarter of these cases are projected to be severe and life-threatening.

Despite the rising number of cases, prevention and treatment services remain insufficient, leaving women and particularly children increasingly vulnerable.

Returns, Rising Prices and Funding Shortfalls Deepen Crisis

According to the statement, several overlapping shocks are worsening food insecurity and placing additional pressure on Afghanistan’s humanitarian response.

More than 1.2 million Afghans have been forced to return from Iran and Pakistan this year, adding pressure to communities already struggling with limited resources.

Border closures and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and other critical trade routes are also driving up prices for essential goods. Meanwhile, major funding shortfalls are restricting humanitarian assistance as needs continue to grow.

These pressures are expected to intensify as winter approaches.

Strong Harvests Have Not Improved Access to Nutritious Food

The agencies noted that favourable rainfall in 2026 supported crop production and pasture recovery, benefiting many farming households. The anticipated El Niño season could also bring above-average rainfall, helping replenish water sources, restore pastures and support winter and spring crops.

However, they warned that favourable weather alone will not guarantee a successful next harvest. High fertiliser and agricultural input costs, combined with low crop prices, could force poorer farmers to reduce planting or use fewer inputs.

Wetter conditions could also increase the risk of localised flooding, erosion, crop damage and plant and animal diseases.

Despite improved harvests and greater food availability, persistent unemployment means many families who do not grow their own food cannot afford a nutritious diet. Winter is also expected to reduce opportunities for agricultural work, further cutting household incomes and increasing reliance on humanitarian assistance.

FAO and WFP Call for Urgent Action Before Winter

FAO and WFP are calling for urgent funding to expand food assistance, emergency agricultural support, and malnutrition prevention and treatment services.

The agencies stressed that assistance must reach vulnerable families before winter restricts access to communities and farmers miss critical planting windows.

“Timely, targeted food and emergency agricultural assistance can bring acute food insecurity down,” Richard Trenchard, FAO Representative in Afghanistan, said in the statement.

He said Afghanistan’s strong harvest demonstrated the potential of its farmers but warned that families without a reliable income could still be unable to afford nutritious food for their children.

Trenchard called for expanded practical assistance, early action ahead of foreseeable shocks, and investment in food processing and local agribusinesses to connect farmers with markets and create jobs.

John Aylieff, WFP Country Director in Afghanistan, said hunger and malnutrition were placing increasing pressure on Afghan families while resources to respond were running short.

“This crisis is increasingly being defined by the gap between growing needs and shrinking funding,” Aylieff said, warning that the opportunity to act was closing rapidly.

He added that urgent support could help families get through the winter with dignity, while a lack of assistance could force parents to make impossible choices.

The two UN agencies warned that Afghanistan cannot afford another year of worsening hunger and malnutrition.