Sharp drop in exports to Afghanistan drives Pakistan’s trade deficit surge

Recent data from Pakistan’s central bank reveals that a sharp decline in exports to Afghanistan has become a key factor behind the country’s growing trade deficit, challenging previous claims by Pakistani officials that halting trade with Afghanistan would not harm their economy.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the trade deficit with nine neighboring countries increased by more than 39 percent in the first five months of the 2025–2026 fiscal year, rising from $4.4 billion to $6.2 billion. The report highlights that reduced exports to countries such as China and Afghanistan played a central role in this increase.

Exports from Pakistan to Afghanistan fell dramatically by over 94 percent during this period, dropping from $408 million last year to approximately $210 million. Economic analysts note that Afghanistan has historically been one of Pakistan’s key export markets, particularly for food items, cement, medicine, and daily-use goods—products that cannot be easily replaced.

The steep decline follows the complete suspension of trade between the two countries in October 2025. Despite previous statements by Pakistani officials asserting that reduced or halted trade with Afghanistan would not negatively impact Pakistan’s economy, the latest figures suggest otherwise.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan is actively seeking alternative trade routes and partnerships to reduce future reliance on Pakistan’s commercial channels and strengthen its economic independence.