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Survey Finds Afghans More Pessimistic on Security, Future
Released in Kabul on Wednesday, the latest annual survey of Afghan attitudes and opinions covers more than 87,000 men and women. It provides a unique portrait of evolving public perceptions on a variety of issues touching the masses.
Importantly, more rural men now support women’s right to vote and work outside their homes. The 2016 survey polled 12,658 respondents from 16 ethnic groups across all 34 provinces, including insecure environments.
The falling sense of optimism largely stems from the failure of peace talks with the Taliban earlier this year, new incursions and record civilian casualties. The withdrawal of foreign troops in 2014 can still be felt in the economy.
Abdullah Ahmadzai, the Asia Foundation’s country representative, said: “Afghanistan is emerging from decades of war and conflict. For the moment, a sense of personal safety and empowerment remains elusive.”
The findings illustrated Afghans’ dissatisfaction with their government, job growth and household finances, he said, adding the nation’s security, political and economic transitions were still unfolding and more time was required for progress in these areas.
Only 29.3% of Afghans say the country is moving in the right direction, the lowest level of optimism since 2004. A marked rise in civilian casualties and increasing violence has contributed to the highest recorded level of fear in over a decade: 69.8% of Afghans are afraid for their personal safety.
According to the study, fear is still the most pronounced in the southwest at 82%, and in Helmand, 92.3% say they are afraid sometimes, often or always, a 7% increase since 2015 and a 25% increase since 2014.
At the same time, although general awareness of ISIS/Daesh has increased from 74.3% in 2015 to 81.3% in 2016, the perception that the group is a threat to security actually fell from 54.2% in 2015 to 47.9% this year.
The percentage of Afghans interested in migration has decreased significantly from 39.9% in 2015 to 29.6% this year, the largest drop on record in the survey which occurred even though unemployment rates remain high.
Afghans say the biggest problem facing youth is unemployment, 71.2%, and more than half (51.5%) cite unemployment as a reason they would leave the country if given the opportunity. Factors that might explain a decreased desire to migrate include the destination’s reception and resettlement policies.
Asked about their household financial position, 36.6% say their financial situation has worsened, compared to 29.7% in 2015. The most affected areas include provinces that once housed foreign military camps, notably near Bagram Air Base.
“Confidence in public institutions and NGOs is at an historical low. By comparison, Afghans say they are most confident in, first, their religious leaders (66.1%), and second, the media (64.5%),” the survey says.
Radio remains the most popular source of information, with 70.5% of respondents receiving news and information from it, followed by television at 66.4%. Nearly two-thirds of Afghans (64.5%) report watching TV.
As many as 74.0% say women should be allowed to work, a record high that appears related to the depressed economy and need for dual-earner households. Afghan support for women in leadership positions remains mixed.
Support for women in local leadership such as community development councils, is significantly higher than support for women in cabinet slots. Education/illiteracy is cited as the biggest problem facing women (36.1%), followed by unemployment (22.9%).
“The survey is a map of social change over time, presenting a body of crucial knowledge for policy making and development programming in a rapidly transforming nation,” remarked David D. Arnold, president of the Asia Foundation. “
Since 2007, insecurity has been the most commonly given reason for why the country is moving in the wrong direction, followed by unemployment, corruption, bad economy and bad government.