UN warns mass return of Afghans from Pakistan and Iran is pushing Afghanistan to the brink

The mass return of Afghans from neighboring Pakistan and Iran is pushing Afghanistan to the brink, the U.N. refugee agency warned on Friday, citing an unprecedented scale of population movement.

According to UNHCR’s representative in Afghanistan, Arafat Jamal, 5.4 million Afghans have returned since October 2023, the vast majority from Pakistan and Iran. Speaking to reporters in Geneva via video link from Kabul, he said the pace of returns is overwhelming.

“This is massive, and the speed and scale of these returns has pushed Afghanistan nearly to the brink,” Jamal said.

The surge began after Pakistan introduced a sweeping crackdown in October 2023 targeting undocumented migrants, prompting many Afghans to leave voluntarily or face detention and deportation. Iran also tightened measures against migrants at roughly the same time.

Many of those returning had spent decades in exile — some born and raised in Pakistan with established businesses and family networks.

Last year alone, 2.9 million Afghans returned, marking the highest annual return to any single country ever recorded by UNHCR. 

Jamal noted that Afghanistan was already grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis, economic fragility, and restrictions affecting women and girls. The sudden arrival of returnees — equal to about 12% of the population — has further strained services and resources. About 150,000 people have returned since the start of 2026.

Afghan authorities distribute basic assistance packages — including food, cash, SIM cards, and transport — but needs far exceed available support, particularly in a country still reeling from drought and two major earthquakes.

A November assessment by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) found that nine in ten families in high-return areas were resorting to negative coping mechanisms such as skipping meals, taking on debt, or selling their belongings.

Jamal also voiced concern about long-term sustainability, noting that while 5% of returnees say they plan to leave Afghanistan again, more than 10% know someone who already has.

“These decisions, I would underscore, to undertake dangerous journeys, are not driven by a lack of a desire to remain in the country, on the contrary, but the reality that many are unable to rebuild their viable and dignified lives,” he said.