War driving hidden climate crisis in Middle East, think tank warns

A new report published Tuesday by the Observer Research Foundation Middle East (ORF) warns that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is accelerating environmental damage and contributing significantly to global climate change, describing the phenomenon as a “silent casualty of war.”

The analysis, authored by Houraa Daher, focuses on the environmental fallout from the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, highlighting how military operations and attacks on energy infrastructure are generating large volumes of greenhouse gas emissions while damaging ecosystems and public health.

According to the report, strikes on oil facilities and critical infrastructure have released toxic pollutants into the air, soil, and water systems, threatening food security, agricultural productivity, and access to clean water across the region.

In Iran, airstrikes on oil depots have reportedly triggered incidents of “black rain” — a hazardous mix of oil particles and precipitation — raising serious health concerns for urban populations.

The report also points to broader regional impacts, including fires in Lebanon’s forests and damage to agricultural land, as well as risks posed by strikes on nuclear and uranium sites, which could release radioactive contaminants into the environment.

A key concern is the disruption of global transport and energy routes.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes — has pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel and forced shipping companies to take longer routes. Combined with restricted airspace across much of the Middle East, this has increased fuel consumption, travel times, and emissions from both aviation and maritime transport.

The report notes that rerouting flights and vessels can significantly raise carbon output, while disruptions to key corridors such as the Suez Canal may increase shipping-related emissions by up to 50 percent.

While the human and economic costs of war are widely recognized, Daher argues that climate impacts often receive less attention because they unfold over longer periods. However, the cumulative effect could be severe, particularly in the Middle East, which is already warming faster than the global average and is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as droughts and heatwaves.

Globally, military activity is a major but underreported contributor to emissions. The report estimates that armed forces accounted for around 5.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, with total military spending rising sharply in recent years — a trend likely to further increase emissions.

Drawing on comparisons with conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine War and the war in Gaza, the report highlights the long-term environmental costs of warfare, including emissions from reconstruction, wildfires, and the destruction of infrastructure.

Looking ahead, the report warns that the environmental consequences of the current conflict will continue long after fighting subsides. Reconstruction efforts, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and environmental degradation could intensify climate pressures across the region.

However, it also suggests a potential turning point: the crisis may accelerate investment in cleaner energy alternatives as countries seek more stable and sustainable energy sources amid ongoing geopolitical instability.