The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned Tuesday that an additional one million Afghans could be deported from Iran by the end of 2025, intensifying an already dire humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and overwhelming an underfunded aid response.

According to the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR), more than 1.2 million Afghans have been returned from Iran since the start of the year, with daily returns surging sharply in recent weeks—particularly after escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, which exchanged missile and drone strikes last month.

Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva, Sami Fakhouri, head of the IFRC Delegation for Afghanistan, said he witnessed firsthand the mass returns at Islam Qala, the main border crossing in Afghanistan’s western Herat province.

“We are anticipating that an additional one million people, possibly more, may return from Iran to Afghanistan by the end of this year,” Fakhouri said. “The majority didn’t have a say in coming back. They were put on buses and driven to the border.”

The forced returns are placing acute strain on Afghanistan’s border provinces, particularly in Herat and Nimroz, where thousands of returnees arrive daily—many without shelter, documentation, or family support. Aid workers say the flow of people has become nearly unmanageable.

Fakhouri warned that many returnees are now homeless, having fled Afghanistan years ago due to war, drought, or political persecution, and now returning to communities that no longer exist or are unable to support them.

The IFRC has appealed for 25 million Swiss francs ($31.4 million) to fund emergency support for returnees, including food, shelter, and health services at border points and in transit camps. As of this week, the appeal is only 10 percent funded, raising fears that vital aid operations may be scaled back.

“We are very concerned about how long we can maintain services without additional funding,” Fakhouri said.

The UNHCR also voiced alarm at the scale and speed of returns. Babar Baloch, spokesperson for the agency, said more than 50,000 Afghans crossed back from Iran on July 4 alone, underscoring the intensity of the current wave of deportations.

“Tens of thousands are arriving from Iran every day,” Baloch said. “The psychological scars are going to stay with Afghans who have been made to come back to the country in this way.”

Baloch also highlighted concerns over family separations, with many deported individuals unable to locate spouses or children after arriving in Afghanistan. Aid agencies say Iran frequently deports individuals without prior notice or the opportunity to arrange safe returns for entire families.

Iran’s crackdown on undocumented migrants comes amid growing domestic economic strain and rising anti-migrant sentiment, exacerbated by international sanctions, inflation, and security concerns following recent regional military escalations.

Iran has hosted millions of Afghan nationals over the past four decades, many of whom arrived during the Soviet occupation in the 1980s and later during the U.S.-led war. However, the government in Tehran has increased deportations sharply since 2023, citing internal pressures and national security risks.

Pakistan has also deported hundreds of thousands of Afghans in recent months, part of what human rights organizations describe as a regional pattern of forced returns that disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, including women, children, and ethnic minorities.

Former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad  has sharply criticized Iran’s ongoing mass deportation of Afghan migrants, describing the expulsions as “brutal” and warning of the severe humanitarian consequences facing Afghanistan.

In a statement issued Tuesday, Khalilzad said he had received alarming firsthand reports from humanitarian workers operating near the Islam Qala border crossing in Herat province, where thousands of Afghans are being forcibly repatriated by Iranian authorities.

Migrants are being pulled off the streets without notice, loaded onto buses, and abandoned at the Afghan border, Khalilzad said.

“When migrants attempt to leave peacefully and with their families, they are told their relatives will be deported separately and that they must find them on their own,” Khalilzad said.

He urged the Islamic Republic of Iran to scale back the pace of deportations and coordinate repatriation efforts with Afghan civil organizations and international aid agencies, including the UN and NGOs, to ensure that returns are conducted in a humane and orderly manner.

The Iranian deportations come amid mounting economic and security pressures inside Iran, where Afghan refugees – many undocumented – have long made up one of the region’s largest displaced populations.

Human rights organizations report that hundreds of thousands of Afghans have been expelled from Iran this year, straining the already fragile humanitarian infrastructure in western Afghanistan.

Khalilzad meanwhile warned Tuesday that many of these deportees have no homes or family networks to return to, having fled years earlier due to war and drought.

Analysts have meanwhile stated that Afghanistan is in no position to absorb returnees at this scale and speed, especially as the country is already contending with a humanitarian crisis.

Iran has hosted millions of Afghan refugees for decades, many of whom fled conflict during the Soviet occupation in the 1980s and, more recently, during the two-decade U.S. war in Afghanistan. While some refugees have legal status, the majority remain undocumented and vulnerable to arrest, detention, and deportation.

In recent years, Iran’s economic crisis – worsened by U.S. sanctions, inflation, and internal political unrest – has fueled anti-migrant sentiment.

Khalilzad’s statement adds to a growing number of international calls urging Iran to reconsider its expulsion policy. Aid groups working on the ground say they are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of returnees, many of whom arrive without documentation, money, or access to shelter or medical care.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and International Organization for Migration (IOM) have repeatedly called for greater coordination and for host countries to avoid forced returns unless conditions inside Afghanistan allow for safe reintegration.

With Afghanistan still reeling from economic collapse, international isolation, and the long-term effects of war, observers say the country cannot manage mass returns without coordinated international assistance.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday criticized retired General Mark Milley, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, over the decision to leave behind U.S. military equipment during the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan – calling it a “historic embarrassment” and describing Milley as “an idiot” for supporting the move.

Speaking during a Cabinet meeting, Trump recounted a disagreement with Milley, who had argued it was more cost-effective to abandon military assets rather than retrieve or destroy them during the withdrawal. Trump, who has repeatedly condemned the exit strategy from Afghanistan, said the decision reflected poor leadership and damaged American credibility.

“That’s when I knew he was an idiot,” Trump said. “They left all that equipment. But they left their dignity behind. It was the most embarrassing moment, in my opinion, in the history of our country. Not that we got out – we shouldn’t have been there – but the way we got out, with great embarrassment and death.”

According to a 2022 report by the Department of Defense, the Islamic Emirate seized a significant portion of the more than $7 billion in military equipment left behind.

While U.S. forces removed or disabled some high-value items, a variety of vehicles, aircraft, and weapon systems remained in Afghanistan. The Pentagon noted that much of the equipment would likely become inoperable without regular maintenance from U.S. contractors.

The withdrawal, finalized under President Joe Biden, followed through on a 2020 agreement negotiated during Trump’s administration with the Islamic Emirate to end the decades-long conflict.

However, the rapid collapse of Afghan government forces at the time, and the Islamic Emirate’s swift return to power, triggered widespread criticism – particularly after a suicide bombing at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport killed 13 U.S. service members and over 150 Afghans during evacuation operations.

Earlier this year, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ordered a comprehensive review of the withdrawal, citing the need for accountability and lessons learned.

Milley, who retired in 2023, has not responded publicly to Trump’s latest comments. However, during testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in 2024, Milley defended the decisions made during the withdrawal.

He stated that he and then-U.S. Central Command leader Gen. Kenneth McKenzie had both advised the Biden administration to maintain a small U.S. military presence in Afghanistan.

“The outcome in Afghanistan was the result of many decisions from many years of war,” Milley told lawmakers. “Like any complex phenomenon, there was no single causal factor that determined the outcome.”

Trump and Milley have had a strained relationship in recent years. Though Milley was appointed by Trump in 2019, tensions escalated following Milley’s public apology for appearing alongside Trump during a controversial photo-op outside the White House amid the 2020 George Floyd protests. Milley later said his presence “created a perception of the military involved in domestic politics.”

In the final weeks of Biden’s first term, the White House issued a preemptive pardon for Milley, a move aimed at shielding the retired general from potential legal action should Trump return to office. Milley’s security clearance was subsequently revoked by Secretary Hegseth in January.