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Traders expect Pakistan’s Rupee to lose ground in coming week

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Traders expect the Pakistani rupee to weaken further in the coming week owing to a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves brought on by fresh repayments of external debt.

Traders say this is causing concern for investors who are worried about how the country’s economic situation will develop.

“We expect the rupee to depreciate much further during the course of the upcoming week due to declining foreign reserves and repayment of foreign loans. Any developments on the IMF (International Monetary Fund) front are being eagerly watched by the market,” a forex trader said.

The local currency closed at 226.94 against the US dollar on Monday while it ended the week at 227.14 against the dollar on Friday.

Pakistan paid back $600 million to the Emirates NBD Bank and $420 million to the Dubai Islamic Bank, causing the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves to fall to a critically low level of $4.5 billion.

The coming week is turning out to be significant for Pakistan’s economy as a donors’ conference is set to begin on Monday, January 9, which will be led by the US in partnership with Pakistan to garner support for post-flood aid, according to Geo TV.

Currently, Pakistan’s chief of army staff is visiting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Experts have said “no one is second guessing what this trip is about.”

Meanwhile, the delay in IMF funding of $1.1 billion has made Pakistan struggle to allay default fears.

Islamabad and the IMF differ over a review of policy and reforms the Fund is requiring in the country. The IMF’s programe review was supposed to be finished in November, Geo TV reported.

The IMF programe is connected to another essential foreign financing, making it difficult for the country to meet its external funding requirements. Up until June, they amounted to more than $30 billion and included imports, especially energy, and debt repayments.

The decline in the forex reserves put pressure on the rupee owing to the government’s slow progress in rolling over and securing foreign inflows from international lenders.

Given that elections are slated to take place this year, the government keeps delaying the IMF’s requirements out of concern for further political capital loss.

The local currency has lost 28.3% of its value against the dollar in 2022.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has assured that the government would complete the IMF programe.

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Afghanistan signs 845MW Power deal with Azizi energy; Baradar meets company Chief to advance investment plans

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Contracts for the commencement of practical work on five major power generation projects with a total capacity of 845 megawatts were signed on Wednesday between Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) and Azizi Energy.

The signing ceremony was held at the Government Media and Information Center in the presence of Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.

Under the agreements, Azizi Energy will invest approximately $463 million in the projects, which include 100 megawatts of solar power in the Naghlu area of Kabul province, 100 megawatts of solar power in Barik Ab area of Parwan province, and 130 megawatts of solar power in Ghazni province.

In addition, the company will construct 165 megawatts of coal-fired power generation in Takhar province and 350 megawatts in Baghlan province.

Officials said the solar projects are expected to be completed within two years, while the coal-fired plants will be finalized within three years. The projects form part of a broader 10,000-megawatt energy investment plan aimed at strengthening domestic electricity production and reducing reliance on imports.

Following the signing ceremony, Deputy PM Baradar met with Azizi Group’s Chief Executive Officer Mirwais Azizi and his technical team at his office.

Baradar welcomed the launch of practical work on the five projects, describing them as significant steps toward job creation and economic growth in the country.

Azizi expressed appreciation for the cooperation provided by the Deputy Prime Minister’s office and relevant institutions, stating that the company had faced no major obstacles in advancing its plans. He said the Islamic Emirate has demonstrated a strong commitment to national development, which paved the way for the implementation of the projects.

Azizi further announced that an additional 15 to 20 power generation projects, with a combined capacity of up to 5,000 megawatts, are expected to be launched by the end of the current year.

He also noted that work on the TAPI project is progressing steadily on Afghan soil. Once gas reaches Herat province, Azizi Group plans to coordinate with the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum to develop major gas distribution networks and establish a 3,000-megawatt gas-fired power plant.

Azizi called for close cooperation with relevant authorities in the exploration, extraction, and utilization of natural gas and coal resources for electricity production.

Deputy PM Baradar and officials from the concerned institutions assured full cooperation and joint coordination in advancing the energy sector projects.

The agreements mark one of the latest  investments in Afghanistan’s power infrastructure, signaling renewed efforts to boost domestic energy production and stimulate economic development.

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Uzbekistan approves feasibility study agreement for Trans-Afghan Railway

The agreement builds on a tripartite document signed on July 17, 2025, which outlined cooperation on preparing a feasibility study for the Termez–Kharlachi railway corridor.

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Uzbekistan has ratified an international agreement to prepare a feasibility study for the Naybabad–Kharlachi section of the Trans-Afghan Railway, formalizing its participation in the project.

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a decree on February 4 approving the agreement.

The framework agreement involves the transport ministries of Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan and provides for joint work on a feasibility study for the proposed railway line between Naybabad and Kharlachi. The section forms part of the wider Trans-Afghan Railway project aimed at strengthening transport links between Central and South Asia.

Under the decree, Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Transport has been designated as the competent authority responsible for implementing the agreement. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been tasked with notifying Kabul and Islamabad that Uzbekistan has completed the internal procedures required for the agreement to enter into force.

The agreement builds on a tripartite document signed on July 17, 2025, which outlined cooperation on preparing a feasibility study for the Termez–Kharlachi railway corridor.

The planned route is expected to run through Termez, Naybabad, Maidanshahr, Logar and Kharlachi, providing a transit corridor through Afghanistan.

The feasibility study will be commissioned by the Tripartite Project Office for the Development Strategy of International Transport Corridors under Uzbekistan Railways.

Established in Tashkent in May 2023, the office also operates branches in Kabul and Islamabad to coordinate the project.

First proposed in 2018, the Trans-Afghan Railway was initially projected to carry up to 20 million tons of cargo annually at a cost of about $5 billion. Cost estimates have since been revised.

In July 2022, Uzbekistan Railways cited an estimate of $4.6 billion with a construction period of up to five years, while Pakistan’s Ministry of Railways put the cost at $8.2 billion in December 2024.

More recent assessments have placed the overall cost at around $7 billion, with a public-private partnership under a Build-Operate-Transfer model among the options under consideration.

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Afghanistan seeks expanded ties with Russia in energy, mining and infrastructure

TASS reported that Kabul is also prepared to cooperate with Moscow in the extraction of mineral resources.

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Afghanistan has expressed strong interest in broadening trade and economic cooperation with Russia, with a particular focus on energy, mining and infrastructure projects, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

In an interview with TASS, Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Moscow, Gul Hassan, said Kabul is keen to import oil and gas from Russia as part of efforts to deepen bilateral economic ties.

He noted that trade relations between the two countries are progressing and that, if key obstacles—especially banking restrictions—are addressed, Afghanistan could also import medicines, industrial goods, grain, vegetable oils and other commodities from Russia.

In return, the ambassador said Afghanistan is ready to export fresh and dried fruits, vegetables, medicinal plants, carpets and mineral resources to the Russian market, adding that expanding export-import operations could significantly increase bilateral trade volumes.

He also revealed plans to open an exhibition of Afghan products in Moscow, which he said would help boost trade turnover.

TASS reported that Kabul is also prepared to cooperate with Moscow in the extraction of mineral resources.

Hassan described the economy as a central pillar of Afghanistan’s foreign policy, emphasizing the government’s goal of positioning the country as a key link in regional economic integration and attracting foreign investment.

He noted that Russian companies have long shown interest in Afghanistan’s industrial, mining and infrastructure sectors.

The ambassador further told TASS that Russian firms are already in talks with relevant Afghan authorities on the construction of small hydroelectric power plants.

Representatives of several Russian companies have reportedly visited Afghanistan and held meetings with officials and technical experts.

According to Hassan, practical steps toward cooperation in the energy and power generation sectors are expected in the near future, pointing to a potential new phase in Afghan-Russian economic relations.

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