UN warns of mounting pressures facing Afghans despite relative stability

A senior United Nations official warned the Security Council on Monday that Afghans are facing growing economic, humanitarian and human rights challenges despite relative stability under the Islamic Emirate.

Addressing the Council, Georgette Gagnon, the UN Secretary-General’s Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan, said the country remained free from any significant armed or political challenge to the current authorities, but cautioned that long-term risks continue to accumulate.

“On the surface, Afghanistan under the de facto authorities remains stable,” Gagnon said, noting that territorial and administrative control has been consolidated and that the authorities view nationwide peace and security as a key achievement.

However, she said economic and demographic pressures are increasing, particularly as millions of Afghans return from neighboring countries.

“Macroeconomic indicators reflect elements of stabilization: economic growth has been positive in absolute terms, with some long term-investments in infrastructure, fiscal stability has been maintained, and revenue mobilization has improved, despite challenges such as sanctions, wider regional tensions, and closure of the eastern border since last October.

“Relative stability has also allowed for positive measures such as sustained near eradication of poppy cultivation,” she said.

“Key risks remain, however, that underscore the fragility of current economic stabilization efforts with serious political impacts. The most significant is demographic. Large-scale returns from neighboring countries have led to a sudden population increase,” Gagnon said.

She pointed out that nearly 5.9 million people have returned to Afghanistan since 2023, while up to 2.8 million more are expected to return this year.

Gagnon said many returnees are arriving with limited resources and face difficulties reintegrating into communities already struggling with economic hardship.

She urged countries repatriating Afghans to ensure that returns are voluntary, safe and dignified and comply with international protection obligations.

The UN official also highlighted Afghanistan’s ongoing humanitarian challenges, noting that an estimated 21.9 million people – about 45 percent of the population – will require humanitarian assistance in 2026.

Gagnon said an estimated 3.8 million girls between the ages of seven and 18 are currently out of school, including more than 2.6 million adolescent girls. She warned that continued restrictions on education and employment opportunities for women are having long-term consequences for Afghanistan’s development and economy.

She also expressed concern over broader human rights issues, citing recent reports of the detention of around 30 women in Herat for allegedly violating dress code regulations, as well as arrests of journalists and the closure of media outlets.

On regional issues, Gagnon said relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan remain strained, with crossing closures and security incidents affecting trade, humanitarian operations and civilians on both sides of the frontier. She called for dialogue and de-escalation to address disputes.

The UN official reaffirmed the importance of continued international engagement with Afghanistan, stressing that dialogue does not constitute endorsement of the current authorities but is necessary to support the Afghan people and address regional and international concerns.

Gagnon urged participants in the Doha Process to maintain efforts aimed at supporting Afghanistan’s eventual reintegration into the international community.

In conclusion she said: “UNAMA remains invested in achieving this Council’s affirmed end state for Afghanistan. Ongoing and constant dialogue is essential, together with principled and pragmatic engagement, even where progress towards the end state is incremental. With strategic patience, coherent and coordinated diplomacy, and open dialogue, progress can be made in full support of the Afghan people.”