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Iran says oil blockade will continue until attacks end, Trump threatens to hit harder
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, prompting a warning from President Donald Trump that the U.S. would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports from the vital energy-producing region.
Trump’s comments came after global financial markets seesawed on Monday on concerns that Iran’s security establishment was rallying behind new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and was not prepared to back down any time soon, Reuters reported.
Trump said the United States had inflicted serious damage on Iran’s military and predicted the conflict would end well before the initial four-week time frame he had laid out, though he has not defined what victory would look like.
Israel says its war aim is to overthrow Iran’s system of clerical rule. U.S. officials mainly say Washington’s aim is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear programme, but Trump has said the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government.
At least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands wounded since the U.S. and Israel launched a barrage of air and missile strikes across Iran at the end of February, according to Iran’s U.N. ambassador.
Trump warned that U.S. attacks could rise sharply if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” Trump said at a news conference on Monday.
IRAN SAYS IT WILL DETERMINE END OF WAR
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it would not allow any oil to leave the region if attacks from the United States and Israel continue.
“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesperson said, according to state media.
In a later Truth Social post, Trump repeated his warning.
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” he said.
The war has already effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment on Monday appeared to dash hopes of a swift end to the war, sending oil markets surging and share markets nosediving, before swinging in the other direction when Trump predicted a quick end to the war and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.
After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said the United States will waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage. According to multiple sources, that could mean a further easing of sanctions on Russian oil, which could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting U.S. exports, sources said.
Brent crude futures fell more than 10% on Tuesday after soaring by as much as 29% on Monday to their highest since 2022. Global stock markets also bounced.
The price of gasoline has particular political resonance in the United States, where voters cite rising costs as a top concern ahead of the November midterm elections, when Trump’s Republicans will try to keep control of Congress.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found 67% of Americans expect gas prices to rise over the coming months, and only 29% approve of the war.
OIL REFINERY HIT
Tehran was choked in black smoke after an oil refinery was hit, an escalation in strikes on Iran’s domestic energy supplies. World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire risks contaminating food, water and air.
Turkey said NATO air defences had shot down a ballistic missile that was fired from Iran and entered Turkish airspace, the second such incident of the war. Iran did not immediately comment on the report.
Israel’s military said it had launched new attacks in central Iran and struck the Lebanese capital Beirut, where Israel has extended its campaign after the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired across the border.
In Australia, five Iranian women’s soccer team players were granted humanitarian visas after they sought asylum fearing persecution in their home nation. Canberra has also promised to send military surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and missiles to the United Arab Emirates to help them defend themselves against attacks from Iran.
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Iranian source says US has agreed to unfreeze Iranian funds held in Qatar, other countries
A senior U.S. official has rejected claims made by Iranian source regarding the release of Tehran’s frozen assets.
A senior Iranian source said on Saturday the U.S. had agreed to release Iranian frozen assets held in Qatar and other foreign banks, welcoming the move as a sign of “seriousness” in reaching a deal with Washington in talks in Islamabad, Reuters reported.
The source, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters that unfreezing the assets was “directly linked to ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz”, which is expected to be a key issue in the talks.
The senior source did not give a value for the assets that Washington had agreed to unfreeze. A second Iranian source said the United States had agreed to release $6 billion of frozen Iranian funds held by Qatar.
A senior U.S. official has rejected claims made by Iranian source regarding the release of Tehran’s frozen assets. In a statement to CBS News, the official said that the United States has not agreed to unfreeze any Iranian funds.
According to the report, talks with Iran have not yet begun, and therefore no agreements or arrangements have been discussed at this stage.
The $6 billion, originally frozen in 2018, had been due for release in 2023 as part of a U.S.-Iranian prisoner swap but the funds were again frozen by the administration of President Joe Biden following the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel by Iran’s ally, the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
U.S. officials said at the time that Iran would not be able to access the money for the foreseeable future, stressing that Washington retained the right to completely freeze the account, read the report.
The funds stem from Iranian oil sales to South Korea and had been blocked in South Korean banks after President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran in 2018 – during his first term in the White House – and scrapped a deal between world powers and Tehran over its nuclear programme.
Under the September 2023 U.S.–Iran prisoner swap mediated by Doha, the money was transferred to Qatari bank accounts. The prisoner swap involved the release of five U.S. citizens detained in Iran in exchange for the funds’ release and the release of five Iranians held in the United States.
U.S. officials said at that time that the money was restricted to humanitarian use only, to be disbursed to approved vendors for food, medicine, medical equipment and agricultural goods shipped into Iran under U.S. Treasury oversight.
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Iran war doubles Russia’s main oil revenue to $9 bln in April, Reuters calculations show
For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted for 7.9 trillion roubles from the mineral extraction tax.
Russia will see revenue from its biggest single oil tax double to $9 billion in April due to the oil and gas crisis triggered by the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, Reuters calculations showed on Thursday.
The Reuters calculation is some of the first concrete evidence of a windfall for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, from the Iran war, which oil traders say has triggered the most serious energy crisis in recent history.
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – a route for about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows – after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February, sending Brent futures shooting well past $100 per barrel.
Russia’s main revenue from its vast oil and gas industry is based on production. Export duty on crude oil has been nullified from the start of 2024 as part of the so-called wider tax manoeuvre, a years-long tax reform of the industry.
According to Reuters calculations based on preliminary production data and oil prices, Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil output will increase in April to around 700 billion roubles ($9 billion) from 327 billion roubles in March. The revenue is up by some 10% from April last year.
For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted for 7.9 trillion roubles from the mineral extraction tax.
The average price of Russia’s Urals crude, used for taxation, jumped to $77 per barrel in March, its highest since October 2023, according to economy ministry data.
That was up 73% from February’s $44.59 per barrel and above the level of $59 assumed in this year’s state budget.
The Kremlin said on Tuesday there were a huge number of requests for Russian energy from a range of different places amid a grave global energy crisis that was shaking the foundations of the oil and gas markets.
Still, there are limits on the windfall for Russia, and economists inside Russia have repeatedly cautioned that 2026 could be a tough year.
Russia ran a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles, or 1.9% of gross domestic product, in January-March 2026, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.
And Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with an aim to cripple Moscow’s finances, have also contributed to lower earnings and threaten oil production cuts.
The size of the windfall for Russia will ultimately depend on how long the Iran crisis lasts.
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Israel prepares for long conflict despite US–Iran ceasefire efforts
While Israel has reportedly halted direct strikes on Iran, it continues operations against Iran-aligned groups in neighbouring areas.
As the United States and Iran move toward cementing a ceasefire, Israeli military strategy appears increasingly focused on preparing for a prolonged and evolving regional conflict.
According to Israeli officials and analysts, the country has intensified efforts to establish and maintain “buffer zones” across multiple areas, including the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon, and parts of Syria.
The approach reflects a shift in doctrine following the October 7 attacks, with an emphasis on containing threats rather than fully eliminating them.
Reuters reported that Israeli officials say the aim of these zones is to push potential threats further from border communities and reduce the risk of attacks. Military sources indicate that areas extending several kilometres beyond Israel’s borders are being cleared or monitored to limit the reach of armed groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas.
The developments come as Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary pause in hostilities while negotiating a broader settlement following the latest escalation, which began in late February.
While Israel has reportedly halted direct strikes on Iran, it continues operations against Iran-aligned groups in neighbouring areas.
In southern Lebanon, Israeli forces have advanced into areas near the Litani River, with military officials describing efforts to establish a security belt aimed at preventing cross-border fire. The operation has reportedly involved evacuations and the destruction of structures suspected of being used for military purposes.
Israeli leaders have framed the strategy as necessary for long-term security.
In recent remarks, Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has created defensive belts extending beyond its borders in multiple areas, including Gaza and Syria.
However, the approach has raised concerns among analysts and legal experts. Some warn that widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure may violate international law unless clearly justified by military necessity. Others caution that maintaining multiple fronts could place significant strain on Israeli forces over time.
The strategy also reflects deep scepticism within Israel about the prospects for lasting peace agreements. Surveys in recent years suggest limited public confidence in long-term stability with Palestinians or neighbouring states, reinforcing support for security-driven policies.
At the same time, statements from some members of Israel’s government have fuelled concern about possible territorial ambitions, particularly in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Still, military officials have indicated that buffer zones are intended as flexible security measures rather than permanent borders.
As diplomatic efforts continue, the contrast between ceasefire negotiations and military preparations highlights the uncertainty surrounding the region’s trajectory—raising the possibility that even if fighting subsides in the short term, a longer period of instability may lie ahead.
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