Regional
Iran says oil blockade will continue until attacks end, Trump threatens to hit harder
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, prompting a warning from President Donald Trump that the U.S. would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports from the vital energy-producing region.
Trump’s comments came after global financial markets seesawed on Monday on concerns that Iran’s security establishment was rallying behind new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and was not prepared to back down any time soon, Reuters reported.
Trump said the United States had inflicted serious damage on Iran’s military and predicted the conflict would end well before the initial four-week time frame he had laid out, though he has not defined what victory would look like.
Israel says its war aim is to overthrow Iran’s system of clerical rule. U.S. officials mainly say Washington’s aim is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear programme, but Trump has said the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government.
At least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands wounded since the U.S. and Israel launched a barrage of air and missile strikes across Iran at the end of February, according to Iran’s U.N. ambassador.
Trump warned that U.S. attacks could rise sharply if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” Trump said at a news conference on Monday.
IRAN SAYS IT WILL DETERMINE END OF WAR
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it would not allow any oil to leave the region if attacks from the United States and Israel continue.
“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesperson said, according to state media.
In a later Truth Social post, Trump repeated his warning.
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” he said.
The war has already effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment on Monday appeared to dash hopes of a swift end to the war, sending oil markets surging and share markets nosediving, before swinging in the other direction when Trump predicted a quick end to the war and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.
After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said the United States will waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage. According to multiple sources, that could mean a further easing of sanctions on Russian oil, which could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting U.S. exports, sources said.
Brent crude futures fell more than 10% on Tuesday after soaring by as much as 29% on Monday to their highest since 2022. Global stock markets also bounced.
The price of gasoline has particular political resonance in the United States, where voters cite rising costs as a top concern ahead of the November midterm elections, when Trump’s Republicans will try to keep control of Congress.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found 67% of Americans expect gas prices to rise over the coming months, and only 29% approve of the war.
OIL REFINERY HIT
Tehran was choked in black smoke after an oil refinery was hit, an escalation in strikes on Iran’s domestic energy supplies. World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire risks contaminating food, water and air.
Turkey said NATO air defences had shot down a ballistic missile that was fired from Iran and entered Turkish airspace, the second such incident of the war. Iran did not immediately comment on the report.
Israel’s military said it had launched new attacks in central Iran and struck the Lebanese capital Beirut, where Israel has extended its campaign after the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired across the border.
In Australia, five Iranian women’s soccer team players were granted humanitarian visas after they sought asylum fearing persecution in their home nation. Canberra has also promised to send military surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and missiles to the United Arab Emirates to help them defend themselves against attacks from Iran.
Regional
Saudi defence pact countries push for peace in Tehran as Houthis launch more attacks
Saudi Arabia said the visit was intended to open negotiating channels to “prevent the return of military escalation”.
Top officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday in a bid to de-escalate the Middle East conflict, as Yemen’s Houthis launched new attacks on Saudi Arabia and Egypt approved defence support for the Gulf kingdom.
The talks were the first high-level contact between Iran and the three nations — which signed the Mecca mutual defence pact in August — since a war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran also spread to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, Reuters reported.
Saudi Arabia said the visit was intended to open negotiating channels to “prevent the return of military escalation”.
It was represented by Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, younger brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; Pakistan by army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir; and Turkey by intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin, Saudi and Iranian officials said.
Iranian state media published pictures of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, attending the meetings. At the conclusion, the four states agreed to continue talks with a view to strengthening cooperation in peace and security, state media reported.
Pakistan and Qatar have led mediation efforts in the war.
Earlier efforts helped produce an interim peace agreement in June, but fighting between Iran and the US soon resumed. Conflict then flared between the Iran-aligned Houthis and US ally Saudi Arabia, opening a new front.
US AND IRAN THREATEN NEW ATTACKS
The wider fighting has restricted shipping through the energy chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, pushed up global oil and gas prices, left Gulf states facing missile and drone attacks, and caused a new humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran have sharpened recently, with President Donald Trump saying on Friday the US may strike Iran again. Iranian security officials told Reuters Tehran had drawn up detailed plans to attack Gulf undersea cables if the US and Israel attack again.
The war, which earlier in the year also reignited fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah militia, has eroded Trump’s approval ratings ahead of the US midterm elections that decide control of Congress.
Iranian security chief Rezaei said the visit by the three countries had shown that “American threats have little impact on countries around the world”. He spoke of a “new and positive atmosphere” in the region.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei had earlier said the meeting, proposed when Munir visited Tehran last week, could be a first step towards establishing regional security mechanisms.
A senior Pakistani security official said the focus was on building a regional non-aggression network. The agenda also included US-Iran talks, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz and a US blockade of Iranian ports, they said.
Another Pakistani official said Munir, with a go-ahead from Trump to try diplomacy, had presented Iran with a solution to the conflict that would offer something to both the US and Iran, without giving details.
The Mecca pact states and Qatar could act as guarantors if it was accepted, the official added.
An Iranian official had earlier said there would be no discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme at Monday’s meeting, and the issue would not be addressed until Tehran’s demands for ending the war were met.
Those conditions include ending a US blockade of Iranian ports and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports. US Vice President JD Vance has said Iran must reduce nuclear enrichment to end the war.
Pakistan’s military media office and Turkey’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
PARLIAMENT APPROVES EGYPTIAN DEFENCE SUPPORT FOR SAUDIS
Saudi Arabia has intensified strikes against the Houthis since they captured strategic areas along Yemen’s Red Sea coast last month, advancing against Saudi-backed government forces. The Houthis have hit Saudi airports, ports and oil facilities.
On Monday, the Houthis said they had attacked pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline as well as Riyadh airport, which said it had resumed operations at two terminals a day earlier. There was no immediate Saudi confirmation of the Houthi attacks.
Parliament in Egypt, which has said it is considering joining the Mecca pact, on Monday authorised the Egyptian military to help defend Saudi Arabia, a major financial and political partner for Cairo.
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement says signatories shall use “all necessary means” to eliminate threats to one another’s territorial integrity, sovereignty or internationally recognised borders, according to a text seen by Reuters.
The pact’s members held an emergency meeting in Riyadh this month and agreed to ensure the “rapid deployment” of military forces and capabilities in Saudi Arabia.
Efforts by Turkey’s parliament to ratify the agreement began last week and are still under way, while Pakistan approved the pact last week.
Regional
Iran says outcome of Israeli elections ‘makes no difference’
Tuesday’s legislative elections will take place amid mounting threats by Israel and the United States to renew attacks on Iran after they launched their war in late February.
Iran’s foreign ministry said Monday that the outcome of the Israeli elections in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a tight race will make “no difference”, AFP reported.
“It makes no difference to us who, in these elections, takes the helm of a regime that has brought nothing but violence and massacres to our region,” said ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei in a weekly press briefing.
Tuesday’s legislative elections will take place amid mounting threats by Israel and the United States to renew attacks on Iran after they launched their war in late February.
Netanyahu has in recent days repeatedly said the only way to remove the threat posed by Iran is to topple its government.
On Sunday, he told Israel’s Channel 14 that he had “instructed the Mossad and the IDF to overthrow the Iranian regime”.
Baqaei dismissed Netanyahu’s remarks as “empty threats” and a “sign of desperation”.
Regional
Officials from Mecca pact countries to meet Iranian officials in Tehran
Pakistan’s military media wing and Turkey’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Top officials from Mecca Pact countries Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are to meet Iran’s leaders in Tehran on Monday in their first high-level contact since the kingdom became a pressure point in the wider Iran conflict, Reuters reported.
Saudi Arabia will be represented by Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan by army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkey by intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin, Saudi and Iranian officials said.
Attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have spiralled in recent weeks and rhetoric between Washington and Tehran has grown more heated. Both countries have also drawn up plans to restart the wider war, possibly after the US midterm elections on November 3.
Monday’s planned talks will be the first high-level contact between Iran and all members of the three-nation bloc since Saudi Arabia was drawn deeper into the conflict. Under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August, an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday discussions on regional security would include “Israel’s expansionist policies, developments in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, and the repercussions of US and Israeli military action against Iran.”
Baghaei said the meeting, proposed during a visit by Munir to Tehran last week, could be a first step towards establishing regional security mechanisms based on the interests of countries in the region.
Qatari mediators met Iranian officials in Tehran on Sunday in a push to de-escalate regional tensions, Reuters reported. Qatar has, for months, played a mediating role between Tehran and Washington.
A senior Iranian official said the meeting was initiated by Pakistan, during Munir’s visit to Tehran, as he met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior officials. During the visit, Iranian officials told him there would be no talks with Washington until Tehran’s demands were met, according to Iranian media.
Earlier mediation efforts involving both Pakistan and Qatar helped produce an interim peace agreement in June, but the deal quickly unravelled as fighting between Iran and the United States resumed weeks later.
The deputy secretary of Iran’s top security body, Ali Baqeri-Kani, told state TV that Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid, Pakistan’s Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin would visit Tehran for consultations with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on regional security.
Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the meeting is part of ongoing efforts by the Mecca Pact countries to de-escalate the current crisis, promote diplomatic solutions, and support mediation efforts led by Qatar and Pakistan.”The visit also underscores the pivotal role of the Mecca Pact states in fostering regional security and stability, and their commitment to working with all nations in the region toward achieving this goal,” Krimly posted on X.
Pakistan’s military media wing and Turkey’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Saudi Arabia intercepted another wave of missiles and drones on Sunday as fighting with the Houthis continued unabated.
Ministers from the Mecca Pact countries held an emergency meeting in Riyadh earlier this month and agreed to ensure the “rapid deployment” of military forces and capabilities in Saudi Arabia.
The Houthi attacks have become an increasingly destabilising element in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, turning US ally Saudi Arabia into a pressure point in the wider war.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran have sharpened in recent days. President Donald Trump said on Friday the US may carry out another military operation against Iran and Iran’s leaders have said that a renewed US military campaign would be met with a stronger response than before.
Iranian security officials have told Reuters that Tehran has drawn up detailed plans to hit Gulf undersea cables if the United States and Israel attack again. A US intelligence memo this week warned that Iranian plots against American personnel had reached “advanced stages”.
The war, now nearly eight months old, has weighed on President Donald Trump’s approval ratings ahead of the midterms.
The Mecca agreement’s first article says the parties shall use “all necessary means” to eliminate threats to one another’s territorial integrity, sovereignty or internationally recognised borders, according to a text seen by Reuters.
Efforts by Turkey’s parliament to ratify the agreement began last week and are still underway, while Pakistan approved the pact last week.
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