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‘Desperate situation’ for Ghani as his power is undermined: NYT

A senior Afghan military official said this week that if the US pulls out without a political settlement having been reached between government and the Taliban, the country will be in “deep trouble”.
Speaking to the New York Times this week, the security official said: “If the US pulls out, and there is no political agreement, then we are in deep trouble.”
“Militarily, we don’t have much hope,” he said. “If we don’t get something, the Taliban are going to march. It’s going to be a severe battle.”
One Western diplomat in Kabul said the country’s military position is deteriorating. Each day brings news of security force members blown up or gunned down.
“They can’t keep doing that,” said the diplomat, commenting on the steady loss of military strength. “The toll on the government, and the credibility and legitimacy it has, it’s not sustainable.”
The New York Times reported that this comes at a time where President Ashraf Ghani has few remaining allies, the Taliban are gaining militarily and his international supporters are impatient with him and the stumbling peace process.
The article questions how much control Ghani actually has over his country’s future and his own – questions that have, according to the NYT, been largely resolved by politicians, analysts and citizen: Not much!
NYT reports Ghani is dependent on the counsel of a handful of people and is unwilling to even watch television news – also that he is losing allies fast.
This, the NYT reports, spells trouble for a country where a hard-line insurgency has the upper hand militarily, where nearly half the population faces hunger at crisis levels, where the majority of government money comes from donors and where weak governance and widespread corruption are endemic.
This, meanwhile, is all taking place as Washington is preparing to pull out its last remaining troops, “a prospect expected to lead to the medium-term collapse of the Afghan forces they now support,” the report read.
Former National Directorate of Security chief Rahmatullah Nabil told the NYT: “He (Ghani) is in a desperate situation.”
“We’re getting weaker. Security is weak, everything is getting weaker, and the Taliban are taking advantage.”
The NYT reported that many are fed up with what they see as Ghani’s obstinacy in refusing to make concessions to adversaries, or his condescending style and that a recent letter to him from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was so harsh that even Afghans critical of Ghani found it insulting.
The letter used the phrase “I urge you” three times while Blinken also said “I must also make clear to you, Mr. President … that as our policy process continues in Washington, the United States has not ruled out any option.”
The NYT stated that the unspoken subtext was clear: Your influence is minimal.
Hekmat Khalil Karzai, the head of an Afghan think tank reacted to this and said: “As an Afghan, a sense of humiliation comes over you.”
“But I also feel Ghani deserves it,” Karzai said. “He’s dealing with the kiss of death from his own closest partner.”
This comes as US President Joe Biden continues to “review” the agreement signed with the Taliban in February last year – which stipulates Washington pulls out all its troops by May 1 – a deadline that is just three weeks away.
It also comes amid a flurry of meetings between leaders of countries in the region, of US officials and Afghan politicians.
The key issue currently is the US proposal of an interim government followed by elections – an interim government that would include Taliban participation.
As pointed out by the NYT, such a move could require Ghani to step down – something he has until now repeatedly refused to consider.
Ghani has his own plan, which includes early elections but the NYT states, both Washington’s plan and Ghani’s could fall flat as the Taliban have never said they would agree to elections, nor have they indicated that they would go along with any sort of government plan or be content with power-sharing.
“From what we’re seeing, they want absolute power, and they are waiting to take power by force,” Ghani’s national security adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, said in an interview.
Visions of September 1996, when the Taliban rolled into Kabul virtually unopposed and proceeded to establish their harsh regime, haunt the capital, the NYT stated.
Meanwhile some former officials criticized Ghani as being compelled to micromanage all ministries and departments, including that of military matters.
Karzai said: “He likes that, because he feels he’s the only one [competent to make serious decisions].”
But Mohib called the micromanagement accusation “a huge exaggeration,” saying that the president had not attended a security meeting “in weeks,” adding that “he is aware of the strategic picture.”
When contacted by the NYT for an interview, Ghani’s communications office refused, while a senior aide did not respond to an interview request.
A Western diplomat meanwhile told the NYT that the consequences of Ghani’s isolation is not good for Afghan unity and that these divisions spread from Kabul into the country’s fractious regions, where independent militias and other longstanding power-brokers have either rearmed themselves or are preparing to do so.
One example cited by the NYT is the low-intensity fight between government forces and the militia of a minority militia commander, Alipour, which has been smoldering for months.
The fight was recently fueled by the downing of an Afghan forces helicopter in March by Alipour’s men.
The NYT reported that Ghani and his aides have taken an active role in managing the conflict, to the dismay of the Afghan military.
“This is what we wanted to avoid. We are already stretched,” said a senior Afghan security official. “And here, you want to start another war?”
In conclusion, the NYT article noted that the upcoming talks in Turkey, the Istanbul Summit, could well end up like the recent ones in Moscow and Dushanbe, Tajikistan — with bland communiqués deploring violence and hoping for peace.
The American idea — to substitute new talks in a new locale for the old talks in Qatar that have gone nowhere — is not necessarily a winning bet and that early signs are not promising, with Ghani once again rejecting preliminary American proposals, and the Taliban aggressively noncommittal about the ideas currently on the table, the NYT reported.
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Afghanistan’s Deputy PM Hanafi confirms ongoing talks with Iran amid refugee crisis

Abdul Salam Hanafi, Deputy Prime Minister for Administrative Affairs and head of the High Commission for Addressing the Problems of Returning Afghan Refugees, says over 500,000 Afghan migrants have returned from Iran in the past month alone — a mass return that has sparked urgent diplomatic engagement between Kabul and Tehran.
Speaking at a press conference in Kabul on Thursday, Hanafi acknowledged that the pace of deportations remains high, with more than 40,000 people crossing daily through the Islam Qala and Silk Bridge border crossings in western Afghanistan.
Islam Qala alone receives over 30,000 people a day, while another 10,000 arrive via the Nimroz crossing.
Hanafi said the IEA has discussed the migrant issue with Iranian officials to ensure the rights of returnees are preserved and to prevent any hatred or misunderstanding between the two nations.
He said these talks are ongoing and being handled through multiple diplomatic channels.
Hanafi expressed deep concern over reports of abuse, confiscation of property, and violations of the rights and dignity of Afghan nationals during deportations from Iran. However, he noted that Iranian authorities have pledged cooperation in addressing these grievances.
“We have had numerous contacts with officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran through diplomatic means,” and they have promised to work with the IEA, Hanafi stated.
In an effort to encourage voluntary returns and promote national reconciliation, Hanafi extended an assurance to former Afghan security personnel and government officials currently residing abroad, including in Iran, stating they face no threats under the current administration and are free to return to Afghanistan.
The deputy prime minister also outlined short- and long-term support plans for returnees. Temporary facilities including shelter, food, healthcare, and other basic services have been set up at key border crossings.
In the longer term, the government intends to distribute land and create employment opportunities for eligible returnees.
To attract investment and repatriated capital, Hanafi announced new incentives for traders and investors, including five-year tax exemptions and free land allocation in designated industrial parks.
The announcement comes amid mounting international concern over mass deportations from Iran, and as humanitarian agencies warn that Afghanistan’s limited resources are being stretched to the brink.
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Mass returns overwhelm Afghanistan’s aid capacity, NRC warns

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has issued an urgent warning over the intensifying humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, stating that the return of more than 1.4 million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan is pushing local support systems beyond breaking point.
Citing UNHCR, the NRC said daily returns from Iran surged dramatically following June 13, peaking on July 1 when over 43,000 returnees were registered in a single day. The spike in returns is overwhelming already fragile infrastructure and underfunded aid operations in border provinces such as Herat and Nangarhar.
“We are seeing families arrive exhausted and distressed to a country that has very limited capacity to support and reintegrate them. We are doing everything we can, but the scale of needs is exceeding the current resources,” said Jacopo Caridi, NRC’s Country Director in Afghanistan.
“Local communities have shown remarkable solidarity. Many of our staff are hosting returnee families in their homes. The authorities are doing their best to mobilize the few resources they have, but the local systems are not equipped to cope with such tremendous needs.”
Returnees, many of whom were born and raised in Iran or Pakistan, are often arriving with no possessions, no legal documents, and limited access to basic services. Immediate needs include food, shelter, clean water, healthcare, and access to education. Aid organizations report that many families are forced to sleep in the open or overcrowded temporary shelters, while local clinics are struggling to meet demand.
The NRC warned that if the current rate of return continues, the number of returnees could exceed three million by the end of 2025, significantly escalating humanitarian pressure in a country where two-thirds of the population already depend on aid. The organization called for a halt to involuntary returns, arguing that conditions in Afghanistan do not meet minimum international standards for safety or sustainability.
Caridi emphasized that the burden cannot fall solely on Afghanistan’s overstretched authorities and aid groups, urging the international community to step up. “The international community must not turn its back on Afghan civilians,” he said. “Both returnees and host communities urgently need support to prevent further suffering and instability.”
The NRC’s call echoes similar warnings from other humanitarian agencies. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies recently projected that an additional one million Afghans could be returned by the end of the year. However, the organization’s emergency appeal for $31 million has received less than 10 percent of the required funding.
The Afghan Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation has acknowledged the scale of the crisis, but says it lacks the capacity to respond without external support. Despite limited resources, local authorities have coordinated with NGOs to establish temporary reception facilities near key border crossings, but these remain under-resourced.
The situation has been further complicated by the broader humanitarian crisis gripping Afghanistan. Since the return of the Islamic Emirate in August 2021, international aid has dropped significantly, while economic sanctions and reduced development assistance have severely impacted the country’s economy.
NRC has reiterated its call for increased international burden-sharing, including greater support for Iran and Pakistan, which have hosted Afghan refugees for decades. Without a coordinated and adequately funded response, humanitarian groups warn that the crisis will deepen, threatening not only returnees but also the stability of host communities and the country at large.
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Afghan envoy pushes for IEA recognition during talks with Kazakh official

The Afghan Embassy in Kazakhstan has confirmed that Mohammad-ur-Rahman, the acting ambassador of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) in Astana, has held talks with Yerkin Tokumov, Kazakhstan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen bilateral relations and seek formal diplomatic recognition.
According to a statement issued by the embassy, the two officials discussed ways to enhance political, economic, and cultural cooperation between the two countries. The Islamic Emirate’s envoy expressed optimism that Kazakhstan may follow Russia’s recent move to recognize the current Afghan government, and reiterated Kabul’s interest in developing broader regional ties.
During the meeting, Mohammad-ur-Rahman briefed the Kazakh official on the Islamic Emirate’s foreign policy priorities, current investment opportunities, and domestic issues, including the situation of Afghan refugees, the impact of recent floods, and employment-related challenges.
He also welcomed Russia’s decision to recognize the Islamic Emirate and encouraged Kazakhstan to take similar steps.
In response, Tokumov affirmed Kazakhstan’s continued interest in expanding bilateral engagement, stating that Astana remains committed to cooperating with Afghanistan in political, economic, and cultural fields.
The Islamic Emirate has been actively seeking diplomatic legitimacy and deeper regional ties since returning to power in August 2021.
While most countries have maintained informal or limited engagement, recent developments — including Russia’s announcement of official recognition — have added momentum to the IEA-led government’s push for broader international acceptance.
Kazakhstan has maintained relatively warm relations with Kabul under the current administration, sustaining humanitarian aid deliveries, economic collaboration, and dialogue through regional platforms, although it has not formally recognized the Islamic Emirate.
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