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Satellite photos show Iran expanding missile production

Three Iranian officials, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly, confirmed that Modarres and Khojir are being expanded to boost production of conventional ballistic missiles.

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Recent satellite imagery shows major expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities that two American researchers assessed are for boosting missile production, a conclusion confirmed by three senior Iranian officials.

The enlargement of the sites follows an October 2022 deal in which Iran agreed to provide missiles to Russia, which has been seeking them for its war against Ukraine. Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, both members of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance against Israel, according to U.S. officials.

Images taken by commercial satellite firm Planet Labs of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April show more than 30 new buildings at the two sites, both of which are located near Tehran.

The images, reviewed by Reuters, show many of the structures are surrounded by large dirt berms. Such earthworks are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating highly combustible materials in nearby structures, said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

The expansions began at Khojir in August last year and at Modarres in October, Lewis said, based on images of the sites.

Iran’s arsenal is already the largest in the Middle East, estimated at more than 3,000 missiles, including models designed to carry conventional and nuclear warheads, experts say.

Three Iranian officials, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly, confirmed that Modarres and Khojir are being expanded to boost production of conventional ballistic missiles.

“Why shouldn’t we?” said one official.

A second Iranian official said some of the new buildings would also allow a doubling of drone manufacturing. Drones and missile components would be sold to Russia, drones would be provided to the Houthis and missiles to Hezbollah, the source added.

Reuters was unable independently to confirm the Iranian officials’ comments.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the expansion of the complexes. Tehran has previously denied providing drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis. Hezbollah’s media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said a boost in Iran’s weapons manufacturing would not have any impact in Yemen because the Houthis develop and manufacture aircraft independent of Iran.

Lewis analyzed the Planet Labs imagery with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington thinktank, as part of a Middlebury project that monitors Iranian missile infrastructure.

“We know that Russia is on the hunt for low-cost missile capabilities, and it has gone to Iran and North Korea,” said Lewis.

Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the transfer of North Korean missiles to Russia. The Russian embassy in Washington and North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment for this story.

The two U.S. researchers said in separate interviews that it was not clear from the photos what kinds of missiles would be produced at the new facilities, which still appeared to be under construction.

Any increase in Tehran’s missile or drone production would be concerning to the United States, which has said that Iranian drones help sustain Russia’s assault on Ukrainian cities, and to Israel as it fends off attacks from Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah.

The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the reseachers’ analysis.

A U.S. National Security Council spokesperson declined to confirm their assessment, adding that the United States has implemented various measures, including sanctions, intended to constrain Iranian missile and drone production and exports.

Reuters in February reported that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran denied providing the weapons. Washington said it could not confirm the transfers but it assumed Tehran intended to provide missiles to Moscow.

NEW BUILDINGS, DIRT BERMS

Shahid Modarres and Khojir are overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite paramilitary organization that plays a central role in Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. It controls large segments of the Iranian economy and answers directly to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The complexes have long been associated with the development and production of Iran’s short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and rockets for the country’s space program.

On Nov. 12, 2011, a massive explosion destroyed a large swath of Shadid Modarres associated with solid fuel missiles, killing 17 IRGC officers. They included Gen. Hassan Moqaddam, regarded by Iran as the “architect” of its ballistic missile program.

Construction at Shahid Modarres, which began again after the 2011 explosion, accelerated last year, the second Iranian official said.

“I think the Iranians may have chosen not to berm the buildings (before the explosion) because they didn’t want to draw attention to them,” said Lewis. “They learned the hard way.”

Eveleth and Lewis said the sites’ long history with Iran’s missile program – Shahid Modarres is considered by some experts as its birthplace – and the numerous dirt berms support their assessment that Tehran is expanding ballistic missile production.

“When we see where you basically have an entire production line that is bermed like that, that’s usually missiles,” said Eveleth. –  Reuters

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Israel and Syria agree ceasefire as Israel allows Syrian troops limited access to Sweida

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Israel and Syria have agreed to a ceasefire, the U.S. envoy to Turkey said on Friday, after days of bloodshed in the predominantly Druze area that has killed over 300 people.

On Wednesday, Israel launched airstrikes in Damascus and hit government forces in the south, demanding they withdraw and saying that Israel aimed to protect Syrian Druze – part of a small but influential minority that also has members in Lebanon and Israel, Reuters reported.

“We call upon Druze, Bedouins, and Sunnis to put down their weapons and together with other minorities build a new and united Syrian identity,” Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, said in a post on X.

Barrack said that Israel and Syria agreed to the ceasefire supported by Turkey, Jordan and neighbors.

The Israeli embassy in Washington and Syrian consulate in Canada did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Syria’s Sweida province has been engulfed by nearly a week of violence triggered by clashes between Bedouin fighters and Druze factions.

Earlier on Friday, an Israeli official said Israel agreed to allow Syrian forces limited access to the Sweida area of southern Syria for the next two days.

The Syrian presidency said late on Friday that authorities would deploy a force in the south dedicated to ending the clashes, in coordination with political and security measures to restore stability and prevent the return of violence.

Damascus earlier this week dispatched government troops to quell the fighting, but they were accused of carrying out widespread violations against the Druze and were hit by Israeli strikes before withdrawing under a truce agreed on Wednesday.

Israel had repeatedly said it would not allow Syrian troops to deploy to the country’s south, but on Friday it said it would grant them a brief window to end renewed clashes there.

“In light of the ongoing instability in southwest Syria, Israel has agreed to allow limited entry of the (Syrian) internal security forces into Sweida district for the next 48 hours,” the official, who declined to be named, told reporters.

Describing Syria’s new rulers as barely disguised jihadists, Israel has vowed to shield the area’s Druze community from attack, encouraged by calls from Israel’s own Druze minority.

It carried out more strikes on Sweida in the early hours of Friday.

The U.S. intervened to help secure the earlier truce between government forces and Druze fighters, and the White House said on Thursday that it appeared to be holding.

Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has worked to establish warmer ties with the U.S., accused Israel of trying to fracture Syria and promised to protect its Druze minority.

Reuters reporters saw a convoy of units from Syria’s interior ministry stopped on a road in Daraa province, which lies directly east of Sweida. A security source told Reuters that forces were awaiting a final green light to enter Sweida.

But thousands of Bedouin fighters were still streaming into Sweida on Friday, the Reuters reporters said, prompting fears among residents that violence would continue unabated.

The Syrian Network for Human Rights said it had documented 321 deaths in fighting since Sunday, among them medical personnel, women and children. It said they included field executions by all sides.

Syria’s minister for emergencies said more than 500 wounded had been treated and hundreds of families had been evacuated out of the city.

‘NOTHING AT ALL’

Clashes continued in the north and west of Sweida province, according to residents and Ryan Marouf, the head of local news outlet Sweida24.

Residents said they had little food and water, and that electricity had been cut to the city for several days.

“For four days, there has been no electricity, no fuel, no food, no drink, nothing at all,” said Mudar, a 28-year-old resident of Sweida who asked to be identified only by his first name out of fear of reprisals.

“The clashes haven’t stopped,” he said, adding that “we can’t get news easily because there’s barely internet or phone coverage.”

The head of the U.N. human rights office urged Syria’s interim authorities to ensure accountability for what it said are credible reports of widespread rights violations during the fighting, including summary executions and kidnappings, the office said in a statement.

At least 13 people were unlawfully killed in one recorded incident on Tuesday when affiliates of the interim authorities opened fire at a family gathering, the OHCHR said. Six men were summarily executed near their homes the same day.

The UN refugee agency on Friday urged all sides to allow humanitarian access, which it said had been curtailed by the violence.

Israel’s deep distrust of Syria’s new Islamist-led leadership appears to be at odds with the United States, which said it did not support the recent Israeli strikes on Syria.

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Pakistani TV channels withdraw reports on Trump visit

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Two leading Pakistani television news channels withdrew reports on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump planned to visit the South Asian nation, with one of them issuing an apology.

The White House dismissed the reports. “A trip to Pakistan has not been scheduled at this time,” a White House official said, according to Reuters.

Geo and ARY news channels had said earlier on Thursday that Trump was expected to visit Pakistan in September. But both later withdrew their reports.

“Geo News apologises to its viewers for airing the news without a verification,” it said.

A senior management official at ARY told Reuters it backtracked after the foreign office said it had no knowledge of a visit.

George W. Bush was the last U.S. president to visit Pakistan in 2006.

U.S.-Pakistan relations saw a major boost when Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House last month in an unprecedented meeting.

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Trump set to visit Pakistan in September, reports say

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U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to visit Pakistan in September, two local television news channels reported on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

If confirmed, the visit would be the first by a U.S. president since nearly two decades ago, when President George W. Bush visited Pakistan in 2006.

Pakistan’s foreign office spokesperson said he was not aware of Trump’s expected visit, Reuters reported.

The two TV news channels said that Trump would also visit India after arriving in Islamabad in September.

U.S.-Pakistan relations saw a major boost when Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House last month in an unprecedented meeting.

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