Following the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) nationwide ban on opium cultivation in 2022, poppy production in Afghanistan has fallen sharply. However, new reports indicate that cultivation is now spreading to neighboring Pakistan and Iran, raising regional concerns about the shifting dynamics of the narcotics trade.

According to a report by Nikkei Asia, opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has declined to around 10,200 hectares in 2025 — a 20 percent decrease compared to the previous year. British geospatial research firm Alcis offered a slightly higher estimate of 12,800 hectares but confirmed that cultivation levels remain dramatically lower than before the IEA ban, when more than 200,000 hectares were used for opium production.

The Afghan Ministry of Interior announced on Sunday that activities related to the cultivation, trade, and trafficking of narcotics have been “effectively reduced to zero” inside Afghanistan. Over the past year, authorities reportedly seized and destroyed nearly 200,000 kilograms of natural and synthetic drugs.

Qasim Khalid, Deputy Minister for Counter-Narcotics, said that under the previous republic government, high-ranking officials were involved in sophisticated cross-border drug networks. He added that 750 traffickers have been arrested and are currently under investigation.

While Afghanistan’s production has dropped dramatically, Alcis reports that opium cultivation has increased in Pakistan, with more than 8,000 hectares under cultivation in just two districts of Balochistan. Iran has also experienced a rise in poppy farming, driven by surging opiate prices and growing demand for cheaper local supplies.

Experts warn that ongoing economic hardship, political uncertainty, and the large-scale return of Afghan refugees from neighboring countries could once again make opium cultivation an attractive livelihood for struggling rural communities. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) noted that “intensified competition for scarce jobs and resources could make opium poppy cultivation more appealing for many families.”

Analysts further caution that deteriorating relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, coupled with the recent deadlock in Istanbul talks, may increase the risk of a regional resurgence in the narcotics trade, undermining progress made since the Islamic Emirate’s 2022 ban.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has said that Pakistan’s “unrealistic and impractical” demands were the main reason why the third round of talks between Kabul and Islamabad in Istanbul ended without tangible results.

In a statement released on Monday evening, Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Naeem told foreign diplomats in Kabul that during the negotiations, Pakistan sought to place blame for its internal security challenges on Afghanistan.

Naeem stated that such an approach reflects the influence of certain factions within Pakistan’s military establishment who, he said, do not wish to see relations between the two neighboring countries resolved through dialogue and mutual understanding.

He reaffirmed that the Islamic Emirate remains committed to continuing discussions and addressing bilateral issues through cooperation. However, he stressed that holding Afghanistan responsible for Pakistan’s domestic problems is “illogical and unacceptable.”

The Istanbul talks, held on November 6 and mediated by Türkiye and Qatar, marked the third round of high-level discussions between the two sides since July. The meetings were aimed at easing tensions that have escalated in recent months over cross-border security concerns, deportation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, and frequent border closures.

Relations between the two neighbors have deteriorated since Pakistan launched a renewed deportation campaign against Afghan refugees in late 2023, and amid increasing cross-border incidents along the Durand Line. Nevertheless, both sides have continued to express willingness to maintain dialogue through diplomatic channels.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has reaffirmed its commitment to continued dialogue with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) to address bilateral issues but emphasized that Kabul must take “serious and visible steps” to prevent the use of Afghan territory by terrorist groups.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andarabi, responding to media queries on Sunday about the third round of Pakistan-Afghanistan talks held in Istanbul on November 6, said that Islamabad remains open to engagement but considers terrorism a “core and non-negotiable concern.”

The Istanbul talks, mediated by Türkiye and Qatar, concluded without a final agreement.

“Pakistan remains committed to addressing bilateral issues through dialogue,” the ministry said in a statement. “However, our foremost concern—terrorism emanating from Afghan soil—must be prioritized.”

According to Islamabad, Pakistan has made consistent efforts to foster constructive relations with Kabul, including trade concessions, humanitarian assistance, and proposals for economic cooperation. However, Pakistani officials accuse the Islamic Emirate of offering “empty promises and inaction” in response.

The ministry also alleged that the Islamic Emirate continues to shelter Pakistani militants under the guise of refugees, claiming that many of these individuals fled to Afghanistan following Pakistan’s 2015 military operations and later fought alongside the IEA against NATO forces.

Pakistan reiterated that while it remains open to dialogue with Afghan authorities, it will not engage with any terrorist organization.

Meanwhile, IEA Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on Sunday confirmed that Pakistan had requested the transfer of members of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from Pakistan to Afghanistan.

“Afghanistan is not foolish enough to bring someone else’s problem into its home,” Muttaqi said. “First, you accuse us of harboring TTP, then you ask us to take those militants from your own territory—this is contradictory and unacceptable.”

Muttaqi also criticized Pakistan’s treatment of Afghan refugees and Durand Line closures. “It is unfortunate that a country which calls itself a nuclear power and claims to have a strong army uses its strength against refugees and traders,” he said. “How can a nuclear power be used against onions and tomatoes? What kind of logic is this, and in whose interest?”