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Climate Change

World could face record temperatures in 2023 as El Nino returns

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The world could breach a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, fuelled by climate change and the anticipated return of the El Nino weather phenomenon, climate scientists say.

Climate models suggest that after three years of the La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which generally lowers global temperatures slightly, the world will experience a return to El Nino, the warmer counterpart, later this year.

During El Nino, winds blowing west along the equator slow down, and warm water is pushed east, creating warmer surface ocean temperatures, Reuters reported.

“El Nino is normally associated with record breaking temperatures at the global level. Whether this will happen in 2023 or 2024 is not yet known, but it is, I think, more likely than not,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Climate models suggest a return to El Nino conditions in the late boreal summer, and the possibility of a strong El Nino developing towards the end of the year, Buontempo said.

The world’s hottest year on record so far was 2016, coinciding with a strong El Nino – although climate change has fuelled extreme temperatures even in years without the phenomenon, read the report.

The last eight years were the world’s eight hottest on record – reflecting the longer-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions.

Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, said El Nino-fuelled temperatures could worsen the climate change impacts countries are already experiencing – including severe heatwaves, drought and wildfires.

“If El Niño does develop, there is a good chance 2023 will be even hotter than 2016 – considering the world has continued to warm as humans continue to burn fossil fuels,” Otto said.

EU Copernicus scientists published a report on Thursday assessing the climate extremes the world experienced last year, its fifth-warmest year on record, Reuters reported.

Europe experienced its hottest summer on record in 2022, while climate change-fuelled extreme rain caused disastrous flooding in Pakistan, and in February, Antarctic sea ice levels hit a record low.

The world’s average global temperature is now 1.2C higher than in pre-industrial times, Copernicus said.

Despite most of the world’s major emitters pledging to eventually slash their net emissions to zero, global CO2 emissions last year continued to rise.

Climate Change

Iran war is supercharging the clean energy transition, UN climate chief says

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The Iran war is “supercharging” the world’s shift to renewable energy, as countries scramble to reduce their exposure to volatile oil and ​gas markets, the U.N. climate secretary said on Thursday.

The U.S.-Israeli war ‌with Iran has upended oil and gas supplies, prompting some countries to ration fuel and others to roll out subsidies and tax cuts to shield consumers from surging prices, Reuters reported.

Early signs indicate the ​war, which began two months ago, is speeding up some countries’ low-carbon ​transition.

Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged, while countries ⁠including Pakistan have reported a jump in electric vehicle sales.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called this month ​to speed up the construction of a new energy system to safeguard energy ​security, emphasising hydropower development and the expansion of nuclear power.

“Those who’ve fought to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom,” said Simon Stiell, Executive ​Secretary of the U.N.’s climate secretariat UNFCCC.

“Renewables offer safer, cheaper, cleaner energy ​that can’t be held captive by narrow shipping straits, or global conflicts,” Stiell told a meeting ‌of ⁠government officials at the International Energy Agency in Paris.

However, the war has also prompted some nations to increase the use of highly polluting coal or furnace oil-based power generation as they struggle to replace gas from the Middle East.

Turkey’s Climate Minister ​Murat Kurum – who will ​preside over the ⁠U.N.’s COP31 climate summit this year – said fossil fuel dependency now topped the global political agenda.

“The best way to protect ​citizens from the violent convulsions of global energy markets is ​to accelerate ⁠the clean-energy transition,” he said in a statement after the IEA event.

Around 60 governments including Brazil, Germany, Canada and Nigeria, met in Colombia this week for a summit to ⁠discuss how ​to phase out fossil fuels.

Conference hosts Colombia and ​the Netherlands said on Thursday countries had agreed to continue working, over the next year, on ​how to do this in their trade systems.

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Climate Change

Uzbek president emphasizes Afghanistan’s role in regional water cooperation

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At a regional water summit in Astana on Wednesday, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasized the importance of involving Afghanistan in broader regional cooperation on water, climate, and environmental issues.

He underlined that Afghanistan’s participation is essential for effective management of shared water resources in Central Asia, particularly in the Aral Sea basin, where upstream and downstream countries are closely interconnected.

The Uzbek president also called for increased international support for environmental protection and land reclamation projects inside Afghanistan.

He further stressed that long-term stability in the region will depend on the development of a legal framework governing water allocation that clearly defines the rights and obligations of all countries in the basin.

Uzbekistan’s authorities have expressed concern over the construction of the Qosh Tepa canal in Afghanistan, saying it could “radically change the water regime and balance” in Central Asia.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), however, has said that Uzbekistan will not be harmed by the canal.

 

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Climate Change

Webinar series highlights growing climate pressures on livelihoods in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is widely regarded as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with limited capacity to manage its effects.

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A recent webinar series hosted by the United Nations Assistance Mission (UNAMA) in Afghanistan has underscored the escalating impact of climate change on humanitarian needs and livelihoods across Afghanistan.

Held in partnership with Samuel Hall, the six-part series in late 2025 brought together Afghan experts, humanitarian workers, UN agencies, NGOs and local stakeholders to examine the country’s mounting environmental challenges and explore potential responses.

Afghanistan is widely regarded as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with limited capacity to manage its effects. Participants warned that communities are already facing severe consequences, including rising displacement, worsening food insecurity and increasing pressure on natural resources.

The discussions highlighted that nearly 70 percent of the population depends on climate-sensitive agriculture, leaving livelihoods exposed to shifting weather patterns. A changing water cycle has intensified water scarcity nationwide, while urban centres such as Kabul are grappling with declining groundwater levels.

At the same time, increasingly erratic seasonal flooding continues to damage homes, infrastructure and farmland, compounding humanitarian needs.

Speakers also pointed to the growing link between climate change and displacement, noting that environmental shocks are driving both internal migration and cross-border movements as livelihoods come under strain.

Across the six sessions, participants explored a range of themes, including water management, climate finance, the role of women and youth, and the intersection of climate change with peace and security.

The series aimed to amplify Afghan perspectives and maintain focus on the country’s climate challenges, particularly as Afghanistan remains largely absent from global climate forums.

Organisers said the discussions highlighted both the scale of the crisis and the depth of local expertise available to respond, while calling for sustained, coordinated and evidence-based action.

Summary notes and recordings from the sessions have been released to inform policymakers, donors and practitioners, outlining key recommendations and areas requiring further investment and collaboration.

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