Climate Change
Explainer: How El Nino is helping drive heatwaves and extreme weather
Countries around the world from China to the United States are battling heatwaves, with the onset of the climate phenomenon El Nino helping push temperatures higher.
Scientists told Reuters that climate change and El Nino are the major drivers of extreme heat that have seen temperature records broken in Beijing and Rome, while leaving some 80 million Americans under excessive heat warnings.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon that in addition to contributing to higher temperatures in many parts of the world, also drives tropical cyclones in the Pacific and boosts rainfall and flood risk in parts of the Americas, Asia and elsewhere.
In June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now under way. The past three years have been dominated by the cooler La Nina pattern.
Scientists have warned that this year looks particularly worrying. The last time a strong El Nino was in full swing, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures.
Experts are also concerned about what is going on in the ocean. An El Nino means that waters in the Eastern Pacific are warmer than usual. Globally, sea temperatures hit new records for the months of May and June, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. That could supercharge extreme weather, Reuters reported.
“We’re in unprecedented territory,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
This year’s El Nino could lead to global economic losses of $3 trillion, according to a study published last month in the journal Science, shrinking GDP as extreme weather decimates agricultural production, manufacturing, and helps spread disease.
Governments in vulnerable countries are taking note. Peru has set aside $1.06 billion to deal with El Nino’s impacts and climate change, while the Philippines — at risk from cyclones — has formed a special government team to handle the predicted fallout.
WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern borne out of unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific.
It forms when the trade winds blowing east-to-west along the equatorial Pacific slow down or reverse as air pressure changes, although scientists are not entirely sure what kicks off the cycle.
Because the trade winds affect the sun-warmed surface waters, a weakening causes these warm western Pacific waters to slosh back into the colder central and eastern Pacific basins.
During the 2015-16 El Nino — the strongest such event on record — anchovy stocks off the coast of Peru crashed amid this warm water incursion. And nearly a third of the corals on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef died. In too-warm waters corals will expel living algae, causing them to calcify and turn white.
This build-up of warm water in the eastern Pacific also transfers heat high into the atmosphere through convection, generating thunderstorms.
“When El Nino moves that warm water, it moves where thunderstorms happen,” said NOAA meteorologist Tom DiLiberto. “That’s the first atmospheric domino to fall.”
HOW DOES EL NINO AFFECT THE WORLD’S WEATHER?
This shift in storm activity affects the current of fast-flowing air that moves weather around the world — called the subtropical jet stream — pushing its path southward and straightening it out into a flatter stream that delivers similar weather along the same latitudes.
“If you’re changing where the storm highway goes … you’re changing what kind of weather we would expect to see,” DiLiberto said.
During an El Nino, the southern United States experiences cooler and wetter weather, while parts of the U.S. West and Canada are warmer and drier.
Hurricane activity falters as the storms fail to form in the Atlantic due to changes in the wind, sparing the United States. But tropical cyclones in the Pacific get a boost, with storms often spinning toward vulnerable islands.
Some parts of Central and South America experience heavy rainfall, although the Amazon rainforest tends to suffer from drier conditions.
And Australia endures extreme heat, drought and bushfires.
El Nino could offer a reprieve to the Horn of Africa, which recently suffered five consecutive failed rainy seasons. El Nino brings more rain to the Horn, unlike the triple-dip La Nina, which desiccated the region.
Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months. La Nina, which takes hold when waters are cooler in the Eastern Pacific, can last one to three years.
IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING EL NINO?
How climate change might be affecting El Nino is “a very big research question,” said DiLiberto. While climate change is doubling down on the impacts from El Nino — layering heat on top of heat, or excess rainfall on top of excess rainfall — it’s less clear if climate change is influencing the phenomenon itself.
Scientists are not sure whether climate change will shift the balance between El Nino and La Nina, making one pattern more or less frequent. If ocean temperatures are rising across the board, it is unlikely the cycle would change, scientists said, as the basic mechanics behind the phenomenon stay the same.
However, if some parts of the ocean are warming faster than others, that could influence how El Nino plays out by amplifying temperature differences.
Climate Change
Forty drown in France as people seek relief from Europe’s heatwave
France experienced its hottest day on record on Tuesday, Meteo France forecaster said, with a peak of 44.3 degrees Celsius (111.74 degrees Fahrenheit) in one town in the south west.
Forty people have drowned in France over recent days as they sought to cool down to escape record heat, the prime minister said on Tuesday, as a heatwave swept across much of Europe.
Britain, Italy, Switzerland and Spain were also sweltering in extreme heat, with record temperatures in some areas disrupting schools and transport networks and forcing tourist sites – including the Eiffel Tower – to shut.
Europe is warming at more than twice the global average, according to the World Meteorological Organization, making such prolonged heat episodes increasingly likely.
HEAT ALERT ACROSS FRANCE
France experienced its hottest day on record on Tuesday, Meteo France forecaster said, with a peak of 44.3 degrees Celsius (111.74 degrees Fahrenheit) in one town in the south west.
Fifty-four departments are under red alerts in what Meteo France said was unprecedented. That will jump to 58 on Wednesday.
Across the country, people have been jumping into canals and rivers to cool off. Sports minister Marina Ferrari said she understood the urge to escape the heat but warned against swimming in unauthorized or dangerous areas.
Speaking ahead of an emergency meeting on the heatwave, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu called the drownings “a sad scourge” and said there had been 40 deaths since June 18, most of them young people.
On Monday, first responders were unable to resuscitate two children, aged 2 and 4, who were found unconscious by their mother in the family car outside their home, said a prosecutor in Carpentras, southeast France.
HEAT DOME
The heatwave is being driven by a weather pattern known as an Omega block, because it takes the shape of the Greek letter Ω, with a bulge of hot air trapped between cooler systems, allowing temperatures to build day after day. Heatwaves and storms are being intensified by climate change.
Meteo France said current conditions were comparable to the August 2003 heatwave, which lasted 16 days and led to an estimated 80,000 excess deaths across Europe. It was uncertain how long the current episode would last.
“Thursday will once again be a sweltering day (in France), with temperatures remaining just as high. On Friday, a gradual drop is expected to begin from the Atlantic coast,” the weather forecaster said.
Heatwaves can affect people’s physical and mental health but also force businesses to adapt and put grain harvests at risk.
HEAT ALERTS IN ITALY, BRITAIN
In Italy, the health ministry issued its highest level alert for 15 cities and authorities took measures to curtail work in some sectors. Storms were expected over the Alps and Apennines, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds and hail.
Britain is also in the grip of the heat, with the Met Office forecasting temperatures of up to 37 C in southern England on Tuesday — potentially a new June record — before rising further on Wednesday and Thursday. Dozens of schools planned early closures.
Transport networks across Europe came under strain, with trains cancelled or running more slowly.
CLIMATE SHELTERS
Spain’s meteorological agency has issued red alerts across parts of the country, warning of dangerous heat with temperatures expected to reach 44 C. Dozens of municipalities across northern Spain cancelled traditional bonfires due to wildfire risks.
Madrid has opened climate shelters for the homeless and other vulnerable people.
In Belgium, soaring temperatures forced a primary school near Brussels to relocate its final exams to a nearby church.
In Switzerland, the northeastern canton of St. Gallen restricted water withdrawal from rivers and lakes, citing low levels and high temperatures.
TRYING TO ADAPT
In cities affected by the heatwave, fans and air conditioning units were flying off the shelves.
“I came quick, I haven’t even had my coffee this morning, I ran here to buy an electric fan,” said filmmaker Victoria Yakubov, who managed to snag one last remaining fan in a Paris shop. “Everything was gone in less than 30 minutes.”
It was the same story in London, with fans “flying off the shelves”, John Lewis Oxford street branch manager, Paul Marsden said.
As parts of Europe baked, and the Eiffel Tower closed at 4 p.m. (1400 GMT) because of the heat, cooler northern destinations were drawing tourists seeking a “coolcation”.
“We were thinking about travelling to Croatia, but we came to Sweden because it’s cooler here,” said German tourist Katharina Rexing in Stockholm’s Old Town, on a day when it was 22 C in the Swedish capital and 30 C in Croatia’s Zagreb.
Climate Change
UN urges the world to ready for extreme heat risk from El Nino
The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe, while increasing rainfall to the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
The United Nations weather agency forecast on Tuesday a moderate or possibly a strong El Nino that could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.
El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The WMO said warm ocean waters were driving El Nino’s development and predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. The WMO said it is likely El Nino will continue until November.
It also said it remained uncertain how strong El Nino will be as models differ on its severity, but officials warned of the need to be ready.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
MORE DROUGHTS, HURRICANES AND HEAT?
The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe, while increasing rainfall to the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
El Nino can also cause drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of south Asia, and spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific, the WMO said.
The last El Nino, which meteorologists said was strong, in 2023 to 2024 contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record, Saulo said.
Saulo said other risks associated with extreme heat included a wider spread of diseases borne by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks and reduced food and water supplies.
“Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits,” she said.
For consumers, facing inflation because of the Iran war, food prices may rise further because of El Nino.
Hein Schumacher, CEO of Barry Callebaut, one of the world’s biggest cocoa processors, warned crops in the growing regions of Ecuador and West Africa that account for 60% of global output could be reduced.
“This is something that we are very cautiously observing,” he told media on a call on Tuesday. “El Nino could have an effect that could lead to, you know, a few thousands per ton.”
London cocoa futures are trading at £2,944 ($3,964.10) per metric ton, down from more than 9,000 in April 2024.
Some national weather agencies have forecast the strongest El Nino in a decade.
The WMO is more circumspect but said it had observed unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific with temperatures exceeding 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, creating a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said it was a reminder of the need for a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said.
Climate Change
Afghanistan climate and housing challenges highlighted at World Urban Forum in Baku
Speakers also urged developed nations to expand support for vulnerable countries dealing with climate change, rapid urbanization and housing shortages.
The World Urban Forum, which opened Sunday in Baku, Azerbaijan, continued Tuesday with a special session focused on Afghanistan and the country’s growing urban and environmental challenges.
Ariana News correspondent Naweed Bahar, reporting from Baku, said the panel is expected to feature remarks from the head of UN-Habitat in Afghanistan and will examine key issues affecting the country.
According to forum reports, discussions will focus on the impact of climate change in Afghanistan, the social and economic pressures caused by the return of millions of migrants, and the country’s worsening housing crisis.
An Afghan delegation led by officials from the National Environmental Protection Agency is also participating in the forum and is expected to hold meetings with representatives of several countries and international organizations.
Talks are expected to include environmental projects, international assistance for climate-related challenges, and possible cooperation to help address Afghanistan’s housing and urban development needs.
During the forum’s general session on Monday, several world leaders called on the United Nations to strengthen efforts toward creating safe, sustainable and accessible cities around the world.
Speakers also urged developed nations to expand support for vulnerable countries dealing with climate change, rapid urbanization and housing shortages.
The World Urban Forum will continue through May 23, with a series of sessions dedicated to climate change, urban development and housing issues affecting vulnerable nations globally.
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