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Blinken admits a civil war or Taliban takeover is a possibility

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(Last Updated On: April 28, 2021)

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Tuesday Afghanistan could be taken over by Taliban or descend into civil war when the US withdraws troops by September 11 – the 20th anniversary of 9/11.

Blinken told CNN a civil war or Taliban takeover in Afghanistan is “certainly a possible scenario” when the US withdraws all its troops from the country.

The Biden administration is “planning for every scenario” but stated the US is “not disengaging from Afghanistan” and will continue to be “deeply engaged” in supporting the country long after troops have left.

But the decision has divided opinion with some officials and lawmakers voicing concerns that pulling troops out of Afghanistan too quickly could lead to retaliation from the Taliban.

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, who is on the Foreign Relations Committee, told CNN “it’s difficult to see a scenario that doesn’t end in civil war or a Taliban takeover.”

Blinken addressed these concerns Tuesday, admitting that unrest is a possible consequence. “That is certainly a possible scenario,” he said.

He urged what he described as “free riders” in the region to start using their “influence” to help keep the country stable.

“I don’t think ultimately either the Afghan government or the Taliban do, none of Afghanistan’s neighbors do, neighbors and other countries in the region that have basically been free riders for the last 20 years, as we’ve been engaged there with our NATO allies and partners who are now going to have to decide, given their interests in a relatively stable Afghanistan, given the influence that they have, whether they’re going to try to use that influence in a way that keeps things within the 40-yard line,” he said.

Blinken denied that the withdrawal of troops was the US “disengaging” from the country, saying the nation continues to be committed to “its people, development, economic assistance, humanitarian assistance, support for the security forces.”

“So a lot of people are having their minds concentrated by the president’s decision and besides that – even as we are withdrawing our forces, we are not disengaging from Afghanistan,” he said adding the US remains “deeply engaged in the diplomacy, in support for the Afghan government and its people.”

“We have trained over the years more than 300,000 of them so all to that remains and there are different actors are work now who I hope will keep moving this in a more positive than negative direction.”

He added: “But we have to plan, we are planning for every scenario.”

Blinken also insisted that the Biden administration is working to ensure Afghan locals who “put their lives on the line” working with US forces and diplomats in the country over the last two decades can apply to be expedited to the US.

Thousands of people worked alongside the US on the ground in the country and have been left fearful for their lives once the US withdraws.

“We have had this program in Iraq and also in Afghanistan and we want to make sure that people who put their lives on the line, working with American folks in uniform, working with our diplomats who put, not just themselves in jeopardy, potentially their families as well, can get expedited consideration if they decide that they want to try to come to the United States,” he said.

“We have got about 18,000 people already in the pipeline, 9,000 of whom are relatively far along, another 9,000 are just at the beginning of the process, and you know, clearly more are likely to sign up, so we are working very hard to make sure that we’ve got in place the resources to work that program – to work it quickly, expeditiously.”

Blinken called on the lawmakers in the House and the Senate to “work together and make sure that the program has the resources it needs.”

US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad said on Tuesday he hoped many Afghans will want to stay to “contribute to the nation’s future” but said it was crucial the US protects those who feel they need to leave the nation.

“Failing to do so sends a global message – Don’t fight with the Americans, because when they’re finished they leave you behind. That’s not something we can tolerate,” he said.

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2023 marred by ‘tremendous challenges’ for Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: April 18, 2024)

Last year, 2023, was a year of “tremendous challenges” for the people of Afghanistan, but it was also a year marked by resilience and determination, the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Indrika Ratwatte, said in the UN’s annual report on Afghanistan that was published this week.

Ratwatte said: “In the face of adversity and multiple concurrent shocks, the people of Afghanistan have demonstrated remarkable courage and strength.”

Afghans now mention access to food as their most pressing need, he said adding that “unable to pay for or produce basic sustenance, millions face hunger and malnutrition.”

In 2024, an estimated 15.8 million people will experience crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity.

The majority of the population is unable to procure basic needs such as healthcare, food, livelihoods, and housing, the report stated.

The UN found that the country also remains vulnerable to climate change.

Following the worst drought in three decades, emerging El Niño conditions now threaten a new cycle of flooding and crop pests. In this context, lifesaving humanitarian aid has been crucial in preventing the collapse of the social fabric. It has also served to underpin the stability of the economy. Despite growing humanitarian needs, relevant funding cuts have forced humanitarian actors to prioritize the most vulnerable further, the report stated.

A Gallup poll found that 95 percent of the population consider themselves to be suffering. In addition to living in poverty, the average life expectancy in Afghanistan has been falling for the past five years.

The Herat earthquakes and unprecedented large-scale returns of refugees from neighbouring countries, including Pakistan and Iran, have shown the disruptive impact of recurrent shocks and underscored the need for sustained international engagement and support, the UN stated.

“As we embark on the next chapter, in 2024, it is imperative that we remain steadfast in our commitment to the principles of human rights, gender equality, and women’s Empowerment,” Ratwatte said.

“We will continue to include women as key partners in our work, to provide assistance ‘by women, for women’, and to tirelessly work for equal access to education in line with the demands we hear from Afghans in all areas of the country,” he said.

However, from an economic point of view, Afghanistan’s economy appears to be stabilizing at a low equilibrium level following a period of significant contraction since 2021.

The UN said in the report that growth barriers include severely restricted operations in the banking sector (including microfinance institutions), trade disruptions, and institutional issues hindering service delivery, including in the private sector.

“The sudden cessation of a significant amount of international aid and grants, which had accounted for 40 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with a freeze on international reserves amounting to about US$9 billion and the imposition of international sanctions, caused a severe balance of payments, banking and payment systems crisis.

“Notably, financial restrictions have removed liquidity from the banking system,” the report stated.

Despite the crisis and a period of devaluation towards the end of the year, the AFN is 20 percent stronger than it was in 2021 due to currency export controls, UN cash shipments of US dollars into Afghanistan, and personalremittances.

Imports continued to surpass exports through 2023 and increased as the economy contracted.

“This appears to be a paradox: the currency appreciated while the trade deficit widened, suggesting that there might be other unidentified sources of financing besides US dollar cash shipments and remittances to support the account deficits,” the report read.

The UN also said that with its partners, it will work to initiate a dialogue with the Islamic Emirate on adjustments to regulatory frameworks and sustained public service delivery with the aim of creating a long-term and sustainable pathway to reduce aid dependency and put Afghanistan back on a path towards development

“In this regard, we reiterate our offer to the DFA for a dialogue and will work jointly with international partners, donors, and Afghans on how such engagement can be structured in a most productive way.”

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Beijing hosts Afghan delegation for talks on a wide range of issues

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(Last Updated On: April 18, 2024)

The third meeting of the China-Afghanistan working-level liaison mechanism on humanitarian assistance and economic reconstruction was held in Beijing this week where in-depth talks were held on numerous issues relating to Afghanistan.

Liu Jinson, Director of the Asian Department of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Jalali, Director of the Third Political Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, co-chaired the Beijing meeting.

Also in attendance were representatives from various Chinese commissions, government departments, international aid organizations, as well as the Afghan Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, the Ministry of Disaster Management, and the Ministry of Refugee Affairs.

Quoting an Afghan proverb, Liu said at the meeting that “friends come and go, but neighbors always remain.”

He pointed out that since 2021, China has implemented a diplomatic concept of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness that was proposed by President Xi Jinping in terms of Beijing’s dealings with Afghanistan.

China has also adhered to a friendly policy towards all Afghan people, and adhered to the principle of respect for the country’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
He also said that during the different regimes in Afghanistan, China has always provided support and assistance for Afghanistan’s peaceful reconstruction and economic development.

The Afghan delegation meanwhile stated that the Islamic Emirate attaches great importance to developing relations with China, and thanked China for taking the lead in sending a new ambassador to Afghanistan and accepting the appointment of an ambassador to China.

The Islamic Emirate said Afghanistan is willing to deepen friendly relations with China, maintain traditional friendship, and will, as always, support China in safeguarding its core interests and achieving national reunification.

The two sides agreed in the meeting that Afghanistan is currently facing multiple challenges such as floods, droughts, and refugee resettlement, among other issues.

They also noted that the freezing of Afghanistan’s foreign assets by the United States has “aggravated the suffering of the Afghan people.”

The IEA stated however that it was “very grateful to China for its humanitarian assistance over the years and hopes to continue to receive help from China in refugee resettlement, disaster prevention and mitigation, improvement of medical and health conditions, and treatment of children with congenital heart disease.”

On the Belt and Road initiative, the IEA delegation said Afghanistan is deeply satisfied with the progress in practical cooperation between the two countries. They also said Afghanistan is willing to learn from China’s experience in modernization and development, and hopes that China will help Afghanistan cultivate more professional talents.

China meanwhile urged the international community to step up humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, and said Beijing hopes the IEA will “actively respond to some of the international community’s reasonable concerns about Afghanistan’s inclusive governance.”

Liu in turn acknowledged the IEA’s efforts to promote economic reconstruction and said bilateral trade volume between China and Afghanistan reached US$1.33 billion last year, a record high and a year-on-year increase of 125.4%.

The Islamic Emirate meanwhile said in posts on X that the issue of investment opportunities in Afghanistan was widely discussed and both sides welcomed moves to pave the way for the export of pomegranates.

“Also, both sides talked about the latest developments in increasing the level of oil extraction in Afghanistan and starting the extraction of Logar’s Mes Aynak mine and it was emphasized that plans should be considered to speed things up,” the IEA stated.

“The Afghan side welcomed the capacity building training programs of civil servants in many ministries and agencies of the Afghan government with the support of China. In addition, the Chinese side promised to expand the range of scholarships to Afghan students according to the needs of Afghanistan,” the IEA stated.

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UN builds 470km of water canals in Afghanistan in past year

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(Last Updated On: April 18, 2024)

The United Nations has built 470 kilometers of much needed water canals in Afghanistan in the past year in cooperation with local communities, the World Food Program (WFP) confirmed.

WFP in Afghanistan said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday that the canals were built in order to provide access to water to more people across the country.

The agency said the people “in Afghanistan cannot continue their lives without access to water,” adding that the canals help farmers irrigate crops, which allows them to feed their families and sell surplus produce.

This comes after years of drought across the country. However, in the past few months, good rain has been recorded which will hopefully result in good harvests this year.

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