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Grim prospects if Israel launches ground assault on Gaza

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Israel appears likely to stage a ground assault on Gaza in response to deadly weekend attacks by Hamas, risking close-quarters fighting in densely populated areas, including in underground tunnels and around hostages.

Israel’s government on Monday said it would “immediately cut (its) water supply to Gaza” as part of a “complete siege” on the Hamas-controlled territory, AFP reported.

Next, “Israel will launch the largest joint (air/sea/land/space) operation against Gaza in history,” John Spencer, an expert at the Modern War Institute at US military academy West Point, predicted on X, formerly Twitter.

Alexander Grinberg, of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said that “strikes will first of all target Hamas command centers and troops, with fire coming from everywhere”.

“At the same time, the army will prepare to enter Gaza,” he said.

Such urban fighting will force combatants into hand-to-hand combat, reduce visibility, increase the risk of traps, blur boundaries between civilians and soldiers and render armored vehicles next to useless.

City fighting is “a 360-degree battlefield as the threats can be all around you,” said Andrew Galer, a former British army officer, now an analyst at private intelligence firm Janes.

Going house-to-house to secure potentially booby-trapped buildings means bringing in bomb disposal experts with cumbersome gear like ladders, ropes and explosives — “possibly all while taking fire” and in the dark, he added.

And there are “inherent risks” of friendly fire given “the difficulties of situational awareness”, Galer said.

“Using artillery can make the situation worse, as while it may kill some defenders, the rubble then provides them with cover”.

Gaza’s roughly 2.3 million Palestinian inhabitants have been living under an Israeli blockade since 2007.

Its overcrowded, narrow web of streets is doubled underground by a dense tunnel network known to Israeli troops as the “Gaza Metro”.

Gaza’s 14-kilometer (nine-mile) border with Egypt was once burrowed under with hundreds of tunnels used to smuggle fighters, weapons and other contraband — although many have now been destroyed.

But since 2014, Hamas has been digging underground pathways to get around territory it controls.

Some tunnels are as deep as 30 or 40 meters below ground, allowing militants to change position away from the danger of strikes.

Rocket batteries hidden just a few meters beneath the surface can be uncovered with a trapdoor just for the time it takes to fire a salvo.

Israel’s army and intelligence are certain to know about a portion of the network, and bombarded it heavily in 2021.

But other parts remain secret and will make any Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operation in Gaza more difficult.

Hamas “knows its tunnels by heart,” said Colin Clarke, research director at the New York-based Soufan Center think-tank.

“Some are probably booby-trapped. Preparing to fight in such terrain… would require extensive intelligence… which the Israelis may not have,” he added.

Underground fighting would hand a major tactical advantage to the Hamas defenders and their leadership.

“Everyone knows it will be long and difficult, with many losses,” Grinberg said, although technology such as robots could work in the assaulting forces’ favor, AFP reported.

On the other hand, Hamas’ tunnel advantage “could also turn out to be a trap,” he added.

“When tunnels are found, they can be closed off to shut in the people inside. In this case, the order is likely to be for no quarter” to be given.

‘Bring the hostages back’

The dozens of civilian hostages Hamas seized at the weekend present another complication for the IDF.

“Israeli society wouldn’t forgive it if the hostages’ lives are not a priority,” said Sylvaine Bulle, a sociologist studying Israel at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).

Citizens’ attitude would be “you have failed to ensure our security, bring us the hostages back,” she predicted — leading to “conflicts… between politicians and the military”.

The government is unable to negotiate for now, said Kobi Michael, a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based INSS think-tank.

“With all the sorrow, with all the pain… the hostage issue cannot be the first priority,” he said.

“Israel will reach to the hostage issue only with the upper hand and when Hamas will be defeated and weak, not a second before,” Michael added.

A Qatar-based Hamas official told AFP Monday there was “currently no chance for negotiation on the issue of prisoners or anything else”.

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Powerful 7.6 earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warnings issued

At Kuji Port in Iwate, a 70-centimeter tsunami was recorded, while Hokkaido observed waves of 50 centimeters in Urakawa Town and 40 centimeters at Mutsuogawara Port.

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A powerful magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck northern Japan late Monday night, prompting tsunami advisories and an unprecedented alert for a potential “mega quake” along the country’s Pacific coast.

The quake occurred at 11:15 p.m. off the eastern coast of Aomori Prefecture at a depth of 54 kilometers. Authorities initially issued tsunami warnings for Iwate Prefecture as well as coastal areas of Hokkaido and Aomori.

USGS has recorded the quakes magnitude at 7.6. However, Japanese officials have stated it was a 7.5 magnitude quake. 

At Kuji Port in Iwate, a 70-centimeter tsunami was recorded, while Hokkaido observed waves of 50 centimeters in Urakawa Town and 40 centimeters at Mutsuogawara Port.

As of 1:00 a.m., officials confirmed six injuries in Aomori, with residents hurt by falling objects or during attempts to evacuate. More than three hours after the quake, the tsunami warnings were downgraded to advisories, though authorities continue to urge residents to stay clear of the shoreline.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency has issued a rare alert warning that a much larger earthquake could follow. A potential mega quake—magnitude 8 or higher—could generate tsunamis along the Pacific coast from Hokkaido down to Chiba.

Residents in the affected areas have been urged to review evacuation routes, prepare emergency supplies, secure household furniture, and ensure access to food, water, and portable toilets. Officials say people along the Pacific coastline should remain on high alert for the next week, although no formal evacuation recommendation is currently in place.

This is the first time Japan has issued an alert under this category since it was created in 2022.

Morikubo Tsukasa, a disaster preparedness official with the Cabinet Office, said: “Based on global earthquake statistics, there is a possibility that a large-scale earthquake with a magnitude of 8 or higher could occur as a follow-up along the Japan Trench or Chishima Trench off Hokkaido. It is unclear whether such an event will happen, but everyone should take precautions to protect their lives.”

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Ukraine to share revised peace plan with US on Tuesday, Zelenskiy says

Zelenskiy pointed to the delicate balancing act the European powers need to strike as they try to negotiate better terms to the proposed U.S. plan:

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Ukraine will share a revised peace plan with the U.S. on Tuesday that is aimed at ending Russia’s war, after talks in London between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the leaders of France, Germany and Britain.

As the war nears its four-year mark, Kyiv, under pressure from the White House to agree quickly to a peace settlement, wants to balance out a U.S.-backed draft that was widely seen as favourable to Moscow.

Monday’s hastily arranged meeting among British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Zelenskiy was aimed to strengthen Ukraine’s hand.

Zelenskiy told reporters after the meeting that the revised plan comprised 20 points, but that there was still no agreement on the issue of giving up territory – which Moscow has pushed for.

“The mood of the Americans, in principle, is for finding a compromise,” he said. “Of course, there are complex issues related to the territory, and a compromise has not yet been found there.”

He repeated his oft-stated position that Ukraine cannot give up any part of its land.

Zelenskiy later flew to Brussels, where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa said in social media posts that any peace deal had to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and guarantee its long-term security.

Zelenskiy, writing on Telegram, described his meeting with the two EU institution chiefs, as well as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, as “good and productive. We are acting in a coordinated and constructive manner.”

Earlier, a British government source had said Monday’s meeting would focus on using the value of Russian assets frozen in the West.

Leaders from Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden urged the European Union to move quickly with a stalled proposal to use those assets to provide funds for Ukraine.

Starmer, Macron, Merz and Zelenskiy are also aiming to get U.S. security guarantees to help deter any further attacks from Russia, which launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The publication of a U.S. ceasefire plan last month has gone some way to focus the minds of European leaders, who fear that Kyiv could be forced to accept many Russian demands, which some say could destabilise the continent.

But although U.S. officials said they were in the final stage of reaching an agreement, there has so far been little sign that either Ukraine or Russia is willing to sign the framework deal drawn up by Trump’s negotiators.

“We stand with Ukraine and, if there was to be a ceasefire, it has to be a just and lasting ceasefire,” Starmer said after welcoming the leaders to his Downing Street residence.

Macron and Merz also expressed their determination to press on with a firm plan, at a time the German chancellor described as “decisive … for all of us”.

Zelenskiy pointed to the delicate balancing act the European powers need to strike as they try to negotiate better terms to the proposed U.S. plan:

“There are some things we can’t manage without the Americans, things we can’t manage without Europe; that’s why we need to make some important decisions.”

Zelenskiy told Ukrainians in a video address late on Sunday that a “new diplomatic week” was starting.

“First and foremost, security issues, support for our resilience, and support packages for our defence. First and foremost, air defence and long-term funding for Ukraine. Of course, we will discuss a shared vision and common positions in the negotiations,” he said.

Ukraine is enduring one of its toughest periods of the war. Russian troops are grinding forward in the east, and Ukrainian cities and towns are suffering hours of power cuts due to intensified Russian strikes on the energy grid and other crucial infrastructure.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner brought a revised plan to Moscow last week, then held several more days of talks with Ukrainian officials in Miami, which ended on Saturday with no breakthrough.

Zelenskiy called the discussions constructive but not easy. Trump said on Sunday he was “disappointed” with Zelenskiy, accusing him of not having read the latest proposals backed by the U.S.

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Shooting at South African bar leaves 11 dead, including a young child, police say

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At least 11 people were killed on Saturday including a three year old boy, after gunshots were fired at an illegal bar in the South African city of Pretoria, police said, adding that a manhunt was launched for three suspects who were not identified.

Another 14 people were wounded during the incident in the Saulsville township, they said in a statement, Reuters reported.

Police didn’t say whether the shooting occurred inside or outside the illegal bar, known locally as a ‘shebeen.’

“Three minors are among those deceased, which include 3- and 12-year-old boys (and a) 16-year-old female,” the South African Police Service said.

South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world, averaging about 60 a day.

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