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Israel’s endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza

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Israel is vowing to wipe out Hamas in a relentless onslaught on the Gaza Strip but has no obvious endgame in sight, with no clear plan for how to govern the ravaged Palestinian enclave even if it triumphs on the battlefield.

Codenamed “Operation Swords of Iron”, the military campaign will be unmatched in its ferocity and unlike anything Israel has carried out in Gaza in the past, according to eight regional and Western officials with knowledge of the conflict who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, Reuters reported.

Israel has called up a record 360,000 reservists and has been bombarding the tiny enclave non-stop following Hamas’s assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed about 1,400 people, mostly civilians.

The immediate Israeli strategy, said three regional officials familiar with discussions between the U.S. and Middle Eastern leaders, is to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, push the enclave’s people towards the Egyptian border and go after Hamas by blowing up the labyrinth of underground tunnels the group has built to conduct its operations.

Israeli officials have said that they don’t have a clear idea for what a post-war future might look like, though.

Some of U.S. President Joe Biden’s aides are concerned that while Israel may craft an effective plan to inflict lasting damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate an exit strategy, a source in Washington familiar with the matter said.

Trips to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this past week had stressed the need to focus on the post-war plan for Gaza, the source added.

Arab officials are also alarmed that Israel hasn’t set out a clear plan for the future of the enclave, ruled by Hamas since 2006 and home to 2.3 million people.

“Israel doesn’t have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after,” said one regional security source.

An Israeli invasion has yet to start, but Gaza authorities say 3,500 Palestinians have already been killed by the aerial bombardment, around a third of them children – a larger death toll than in any previous conflict between Hamas and Israel.

Biden, on a visit to Israel on Wednesday, told Israelis that justice needed to be served to Hamas, though he cautioned that after the 9/11 attacks on New York, the U.S. had made mistakes.

The “vast majority of Palestinians are not Hamas”, he said. “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.”

Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Biden’s visit would have given him a chance to press Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to think through issues such as the proportional use of force and the longer-term plans for Gaza before any invasion.

City of tunnels

Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have said they will wipe out Hamas in retribution for the Oct. 7 killings, the deadliest militant attack in Israel’s 75-year-old history.

What will follow is less defined.

“We are of course thinking and dealing with this, and this involves assessments and includes the National Security Council, the military and others about the end situation,” Israeli National Security Council director Tzachi Hanegbi told reporters on Tuesday. “We don’t know what this will be with certainty.”

“But what we do know is what there will not be,” he said, referring to Israel’s stated aim to eradicate Hamas.

This might be easier said than done.

“It’s an underground city of tunnels that make the Vietcong tunnels look like child’s play,” said the first regional source, referring to the Communist guerrilla force that defied U.S. troops in Vietnam. “They’re not going to end Hamas with tanks and firepower.”

Two regional military experts told Reuters that Hamas’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, has mobilized for an invasion, setting up anti-tank mines and booby-trapped explosive devices to ambush troops.

Israel’s coming offensive is set to be much bigger than past Gaza operations that Israeli officials had previously referred to as “mowing the grass”, degrading Hamas’s military capabilities but not eliminating it.

Israel has fought three previous conflicts with Hamas, in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, and launched limited land invasions during two of those campaigns, but unlike today, Israel’s leaders never vowed to destroy Hamas once and for all.

In those three confrontations, just under 4,000 Palestinians and fewer than 100 Israelis died.

There is less optimism in Washington, though, that Israel will be able to completely destroy Hamas and U.S. officials see little chance that Israel will want to hold on to any Gaza territory or re-occupy it, the U.S. source said.

A more likely scenario, the person said, would be for Israeli forces to kill or capture as many Hamas members as they can, blow up tunnels and rocket workshops, then after Israeli casualties mount, look for a way to declare victory and exit, Reuters reported.

Fear grows in region

The fear across the region is that the war will blow up beyond the confines of Gaza, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and its backer Iran opening major new fronts in support of Hamas.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned of a possible “preemptive” action against Israel if it carried out its invasion of Gaza. He said last weekend that Iran would not watch from the sidelines if the U.S. failed to restrain Israel.

Arab leaders have told Blinken, who has been criss-crossing the region this past week, that while they condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel, they oppose collective punishment against ordinary Palestinians, which they fear will trigger regional unrest.

Popular anger will ratchet up across the region when the body count rises, they said.

Washington has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean and is concerned that Hezbollah might join the battle from Israel’s northern border. There has been no sign, however, that the U.S. military would then move from a deterrent posture to direct involvement.

The regional sources said Washington was proposing to re-energise the Palestinian Authority (PA), which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, although there is huge doubt whether the PA or any other authority would be able to govern the coastal enclave should Hamas be driven out.

In the meantime, calls for the creation of humanitarian corridors within Gaza and escape routes for Palestinian civilians have drawn a strong reaction from Arab neighbors.

They fear an Israeli invasion will spark a new permanent mass wave of displacement, a replay of the 1948 Israeli war of independence and 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Millions of Palestinians who were forced to flee then have remained stranded as refugees in the countries that hosted them.

World

Americans don’t think Trump has explained Iran war goals, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows

The Reuters/Ipsos poll had a 3-percentage-point margin of error ​in either direction based on the number of people surveyed.

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Two out of three Americans think President Donald Trump has not clearly explained why the country went ‌to war with Iran, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday that also showed his approval rating ticking up from the lowest level of his term.

The four-day poll revealed deep concerns about surging gasoline prices, and also suggested many voters are casting blame for their troubles on Trump’s Republican allies who will be defending their congressional majorities in ​the November midterm elections.

More than two months into a conflict that began February 28 with a U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, some 66% of poll ​respondents – including one in three Republicans and almost all Democrats – said Trump has not “clearly explained the goals of U.S. ⁠military involvement in Iran.”

The war, which cooled in recent weeks as both sides floated peace proposals, has driven a roughly 50% increase in gasoline ​prices across the country. Iran shut down a fifth of the global oil trade by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz – despite efforts by U.S. warships ​to re-open the waterway for oil tankers.

Some 63% of the country say their household’s personal financial situation has taken a hit from recent gas price increases, up from 55% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 17-19.

Some 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance, up two percentage points since a late April Reuters/Ipsos poll showed ​his approval rating at 34%, which was the lowest level of Trump’s current term in office.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll had a 3-percentage-point margin of error ​in either direction based on the number of people surveyed.

Trump’s popularity remains below the 40% approval rate he had just before the war started. He started his term ‌in January ⁠2025 with 47% approval after winning the 2024 presidential election on promises to lower costs for Americans.

Three-quarters of the public – including half of Republicans – think his administration bears at least a fair amount of responsibility for the gas price surge, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed. Asked which political party is more responsible, 65% of poll respondents said Republicans were to blame compared to 27% who said Democrats.

Four out of five Americans said they ​expect gas prices to rise further.

Republicans ​are defending narrow majorities in the ⁠U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterms. Their hopes of keeping control of the House have been bolstered by recent court rulings that could lead to voting district boundaries that are more favorable to ​Republicans. Republican strategists say the party’s chances would further improve if gasoline prices came down.

But with no agreement ​in sight between ⁠Washington and Tehran, about three in 10 Americans already expect to cut back on summer vacation plans if gas prices hold firm, the poll found. Many expect to cancel their trips or travel shorter distances.

Trump has repeatedly promised gas prices will fall when the war ends, though analysts warn that is unlikely to happen ⁠quickly. The public ​isn’t sure who has the upper hand in the conflict. Only one in three say ​America has the advantage, while about one in seven say Iran has it, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed. The rest said they weren’t sure or that neither side has an advantage.

The latest ​Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online and gathered responses from 1,254 U.S. adults nationwide.

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World

Israel built and defended a secret base in Iraq for Iran war, WSJ reports

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Israel established a covert military installation in the Iraqi desert to support its air operations against Iran, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, citing individuals familiar with the matter, including U.S. officials.

The report said the facility was used as a logistical hub for the Israeli Air Force and also housed special forces, as well as search-and-rescue units prepared to assist any downed pilots during operations.

According to the newspaper, the base was built with the knowledge of the United States shortly before the onset of what it described as a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

The report added that Israeli forces conducted airstrikes against Iraqi troops on at least one occasion after they allegedly came close to discovering the site, in order to prevent exposure of the facility.

The existence of the installation reportedly came under threat in early March, when Iraqi state media said a shepherd had alerted authorities to unusual military activity in the area, including helicopter movements. Iraqi forces were subsequently dispatched to investigate.

The Wall Street Journal further reported that Iraqi troops were struck by Israeli air operations while approaching the area, based on accounts from sources familiar with the incident.

Later in March, Iraq submitted a complaint to the United Nations alleging that foreign forces were involved in attacks in the area and initially attributed responsibility to the United States. However, the report cited a source familiar with the matter as saying the U.S. was not involved.

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World

Trump releases government UFO files, more expected

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At the order of U.S. ​President Donald Trump, the Defense Department on Friday released dozens of previously classified files on alleged UFO sightings to provide what ‌it called “unprecedented transparency” to the American people, though analysts said many of the documents had already been made public.

The disclosure of documents, photos and videos of “unidentified anomalous phenomena” will be followed by future releases as more materials are declassified, the Defense Department said in a statement, Reuters reported.

Trump was the latest president to release U.S. government reports on UFOs, a ​disclosure process that began in the late 1970s. Experts said the batch of around 160 files released on Friday contained new videos ​of known sightings but gave no conclusive evidence of alien technology or extraterrestrial life.

The files include a 1947 report of “flying discs” as well as grainy photos of “unidentified phenomena” taken from the moon’s surface by the 1969 Apollo 12 lunar mission and a transcript of the ​Apollo 17 crew describing unidentified objects seen from the moon in 1972.

‘BRIGHT PARTICLES’ DURING APOLLO 17

Apollo 17 mission pilot Ronald Evans reported “a few very bright ​particles or fragments or something that go drifting by as we maneuver,” based on the transcript.

“Roger. Understand,” mission control replied.

“These files, hidden behind classifications, have long fueled justified speculation – and it’s time the American people see it for themselves,” Hegseth said in a statement.

The records release is likely to fuel fresh debate over government secrecy and ​the possible existence of life in the cosmos.

“Whereas previous Administrations have failed to be transparent on this subject, with these new Documents and Videos, ​the people can decide for themselves, “WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?” Trump said in a statement. “Have fun and enjoy!”

The move was welcomed by U.S. Representatives Tim Burchett and ‌Anna Paulina ⁠Luna, both proponents of declassifying UFO files. Luna said an additional tranche of material was expected in about 30 days.

“The files show that UAP are not simply a matter of speculation or public curiosity,” Harvard University astrophysicist Avi Loeb said in an email to Reuters. “The government has collected records.”

The images from Apollo 12 and 17 were fascinating but could be the result of asteroid impacts on the lunar surface, Loeb said.

DISTRACTION FROM POLITICAL PROBLEMS?

Some critics ​cast the UFO disclosures as a ​distraction from Trump’s political woes, including ⁠the unpopular U.S. military campaign against Iran and public pressure to release further files tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

“I really don’t care about the UFO files. I just don’t. I’m so sick of the ‘look at the ​shiny object’ propaganda,” former Republican U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote on X.

UAP investigator Mick West said the ​administration of former President ⁠Joe Biden disclosed much of the same information as Friday’s release.

“They’re evidence of us not being able to identify a small white dot that’s a long distance away,” the Sacramento, California-based analyst said of the new UAP videos and images.

Independent journalist Leslie Kean said the release showed there was still a lot ⁠of government ​information on UAP that should be disclosed. Kean co-authored a 2017 New York Times story ​on a secret Pentagon UAP program, which prompted Congress to push for declassification of UFO documents.

“I think we’ve already proven the existence of UAP, but that doesn’t mean we’ve proven they’re ​alien or extraterrestrial or that we know what they are,” said Kean.

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