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Military confrontation seems inevitable if no new Iran nuclear deal, France says

Western powers say the nuclear programme amounts to a disguised effort to develop an atomic bomb. Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons.

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France’s foreign minister warned on Wednesday that if world powers were unable to quickly reach a new agreement with Iran over its contested nuclear programme then a military confrontation seemed “almost inevitable”.

Speaking after President Emmanuel Macron convened a rare and undisclosed meeting of key ministers and experts on Wednesday to discuss the Iran dossier, Jean-Noel Barrot appeared to ramp up the pressure on Tehran.

European powers are seeking to create a diplomatic path with a view to getting an agreement to curb Iran’s uranium enrichment activity by the summer and ahead of an October 2025 deadline, when U.N. sanctions related to a 2015 accord on Iran’s nuclear programme with world powers expire.

Western powers say the nuclear programme amounts to a disguised effort to develop an atomic bomb. Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons.

“The window of opportunity is narrow. We only have a few months until the expiration of this (2015) accord. In case of failure, a military confrontation would seem to be almost inevitable,” Barrot told a parliamentary hearing.

The earlier cabinet meeting, confirmed by three diplomatic sources, is rare and highlights mounting concern among Washington’s European allies that the United States and Israel could launch airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities unless there is a quick negotiated deal on its nuclear programme.

The U.S. has reinforced military capabilities in the Middle East with more warplanes, the Pentagon said on Tuesday, amid a U.S. bombing campaign against the Houthis who control much of Yemen and are supported by Iran.

A senior European official said European strategists were asking themselves whether the campaign could be a precursor to a U.S. strike on Iran in the coming months.

Trump, who has urged Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to engage immediately in negotiations, threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if it did not come to an agreement over its nuclear programme.

The foreign minister of Iran’s direct adversary Israel will be in Paris on Thursday.

Diplomatic sources said ministers from France, Britain and Germany, all party to the 2015 deal, were hoping to discuss the Iran dossier with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio when they convene in Brussels for a NATO ministerial meeting this week.

Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 deal that placed strict limits on Tehran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

Since then, Iran has far surpassed that deal’s limits on uranium enrichment, producing stocks at a high level of fissile purity, well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy programme and close to that required for nuclear warheads.

The European powers have sought to raise pressure on Iran to coax it back into nuclear discussions. They have held several rounds of talks with Iran including at technical level last week, to try to lay the groundwork.

But the Trump administration has focused initially on a campaign of “maximum pressure”, and the Europeans have found coordination complicated, diplomats say.

The European powers, who can invoke a return of full UN sanctions before October, had hoped to convince Iran to begin negotiating new restrictions on its nuclear activities with a view to having a deal by August at the latest.

That would give enough time to set new limits for Iran’s programme and begin lifting sanctions before the 2015 accord expires in October 2025.

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Russia sought to blackmail US using intelligence to Iran, Zelenskiy says

Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran.

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Russia sought to blackmail the United States by offering to stop sharing military intelligence with Iran if, in return, Washington ​would cut off Ukraine from its intelligence data, President ‌Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday.

Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran, ​told Reuters he had seen the data but provided ​no further details, Reuters reported.

Speaking in his presidential compound in Kyiv, Zelenskiy ⁠said that some Iranian drones, used to attack U.S. military ​assets and its allies during the war in the Middle East, ​contained Russian components.

“I have reports from our intelligence services showing that Russia is doing this and saying: ‘I will not pass on intelligence to Iran if ​America stops passing intelligence to Ukraine.’ Isn’t that blackmail? Absolutely,” ​Zelenskiy said.

He did not say who, according to the reports, Russia was addressing ‌the ⁠comments to. Russia has denied assisting Iran in its month-old conflict with the United States and Israel – a denial that Washington said earlier this month that it had also received directly from ​Moscow when the issue ​was discussed.

Ukraine, ⁠which has faced sustained attacks by Iranian-designed Shahed drones since Russia launched its invasion in 2022, is ​helping several Gulf states – including Saudi Arabia, the United ​Arab ⁠Emirates, and Qatar – to counter drone attacks on their territory, the president said.

Zelenskiy said he hoped that Ukraine would be able to ⁠reach long-term ​deals with some Gulf countries that ​would raise funds for the production of Ukrainian drone interceptors or receiving much-needed air-defence ​missiles, read the report.

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Israel strikes Tehran as Trump says US negotiating to end war

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Israel struck the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday, Israeli military and Iranian media said, as President Donald Trump said the ​U.S. was making progress in its efforts to negotiate an end to the war, with reports of a 15-point plan sent to Tehran.

The Israeli Defense ‌Forces said in a Telegram post it had launched a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure across Tehran. The semi-official Iranian SNN News Agency said the strikes hit a residential area in the city, with rescuers searching the rubble, Reuters reported.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia said on Wednesday they had repelled fresh drone attacks, without stating where they originated. Drones targeted a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, ​causing a fire but no casualties, Kuwait’s Civil Aviation Authority said.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it had launched a new wave of attacks against locations ​in Israel including Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona, as well as U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, Iranian state media ⁠reported.

Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was in “negotiations” to end the war, which has already killed thousands and created the worst energy shock in history, leading ​to global fuel shortages and roiling markets.

Stocks rose and oil prices fell on Wednesday on reports the U.S. is seeking a month-long ceasefire and had sent a 15-point ​plan to Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a resumption of oil exports out of the Persian Gulf.

Trump told reporters at the White House the U.S. was talking to “the right people” in Iran to end hostilities, adding the Iranians wanted to reach a deal very badly.

Iran’s powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf on Monday dismissed such reports as “fake news.”

15 POINT PLAN SENT TO IRAN

The New ​York Times reported on Tuesday that Washington sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East. Israel’s Channel 12, quoting three sources, ​said the U.S. was seeking a month-long ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan.

A source familiar with the matter confirmed that the U.S. had sent a plan to Iran but provided no ‌further details.

The ⁠Israeli media outlet said the plan would include the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, ceasing support for proxy groups, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28 after saying they had failed to make enough headway in talks aimed at ending Iran’s nuclear programme, although mediator Oman said significant progress had been made.

Since then, Iran has attacked countries that host U.S. bases, struck Gulf energy infrastructure and effectively closed the Strait ​of Hormuz, conduit for a fifth of ​the world’s oil and liquefied natural ⁠gas.

Iran has told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities, according to a note seen by Reuters on Tuesday.

The effective closure of the waterway, ​where 20% of the world’s oil and gas normally transits, has created the worst energy supply shock in history, ​sent fuel prices soaring, ⁠and disrupted global aviation.

PAKKISTAN OFFERS TO HOLD US-IRAN TALKS

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Tuesday he was willing to host talks between the U.S. and Iran on ending the war, a day after Trump postponed threats to bomb Iranian power plants after what he called “productive” talks.

Pakistan has long-standing ties to neighbouring Iran’s Islamic Republic and has been building ⁠a relationship ​with Trump.

Despite reports of negotiations, the Pentagon is expected to send thousands of soldiers from the U.S. ​Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, adding to a massive U.S. military buildup.

The forces will add to the 50,000 U.S. troops ​already in the region and accelerate Washington’s massive U.S. military buildup there, fuelling fears of a longer conflict.

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US allies in Middle East ‘edging closer’ to joining conflict

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Key U.S. allies in the Middle East are moving closer to direct involvement in the conflict with Iran, as sustained attacks on Gulf infrastructure intensify pressure on regional governments, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are reportedly weighing deeper coordination with the United States and Israel, following repeated Iranian missile and drone strikes that have disrupted their economies and threatened regional energy security.

While neither country has formally committed troops, recent developments suggest a shift toward more active participation. The report indicates that Gulf support is already enhancing U.S. operational capabilities, including facilitating airstrike logistics and potentially opening new avenues to target Iran’s financial networks.

Saudi Arabia signals shift in stance

Saudi Arabia appears to be reassessing its position as attacks on critical infrastructure continue. Riyadh has reportedly allowed U.S. forces access to the King Fahd Air Base, a move that could support expanded military operations.

Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan warned that the kingdom’s tolerance for Iranian attacks is limited. “Any belief that Gulf countries are incapable of responding is a miscalculation,” he said following recent strikes on energy facilities.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to be considering stronger action to restore deterrence, with officials suggesting it may be only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia takes a more direct role in the conflict.

According to the WSJ report, one source said that “it is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war.”

UAE ramps up pressure on Tehran

The United Arab Emirates has also taken steps to increase pressure on Tehran, particularly through economic measures. Authorities in Dubai have shut down Iranian-linked institutions, including the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club, citing violations of national laws and alleged links to state-backed activities.

Officials warned that further action could include freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held within the UAE, a move that could significantly impact Iran’s already strained economy.

Long regarded as a key financial hub for Iranian businesses, the UAE’s shift signals a notable escalation in its stance, even as it continues to deliberate over potential military involvement.

Regional tensions and strategic stakes

The growing alignment among Gulf states follows a series of attacks on energy facilities across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar. Doha has condemned the strikes as a dangerous escalation and a direct threat to regional stability.

At the center of the war remains control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Iran’s ability to disrupt traffic through the strait continues to give it significant strategic leverage.

Risk of wider regional war

As the conflict approaches the one-month mark, Gulf states are maintaining close coordination with Washington over next steps. However, analysts warn that continued Iranian strikes could force regional powers into open confrontation.

With economic, security, and geopolitical stakes rising, the prospect of a broader regional war is becoming increasingly likely unless tensions are quickly contained through diplomatic efforts.

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