Regional
Only Gaza ceasefire will delay retaliation, say Iranian officials
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.
Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.
Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.
One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.
With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
In comments published on Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.
“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. said on Friday in a statement. Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint “contradict principles of international law.”
Iran’s foreign ministry and its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to questions.
“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday.
“If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added.
At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.
“We are closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any (possible) threat, while also preparing a variety of offensive options,” Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an intelligence base in Northern Israel.
“We are determined to fulfill our mission – we must ensure the safe return of (Israel’s northern) residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River.”
Iran’s regional policy is set by the elite Revolutionary Guards, who answer only to Khamenei, the country’s top authority. Iran’s relatively moderate new president Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly reaffirmed Iran’s anti-Israel stance and its support for resistance movements across the region since taking office last month.
Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, said he thought Iran would put its needs before helping its ally Hamas but that Iran also wanted to avoid a full-scale war.
“The Iranians never subordinated their strategy and policies to the needs of their proxies or protégées,” Litvak said. “An attack is likely and almost inevitable but I don’t know the scale and the timing.”
Iran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the Islamic Republic’s leaders were now keen to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, “to obtain incentives, avoid an all-out war and strengthen its position in the region.”
Laylaz said Iran had not previously been involved in the Gaza peace process but was now ready to play “a key role.”
Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions “to maintain a line of diplomatic communication” with the United States while negotiations proceed.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York told Reuters that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the ceasefire talks. Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in talks.
Two senior sources close to Lebanon’s Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions to retaliate.
A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller “symbolic” response, one of the sources said.
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, according to the health ministry.
Iran has not publicly indicated what would be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination. Reuters
On April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran’s embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two airbases. Almost all of the weapons were shot down before they reached their targets.
“Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April 13 attack,” said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East policy.”
Nadimi said such a response would require “a lot of preparation and coordination” especially if it involved Iran’s network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the United States across the Middle East, with Hezbollah the senior member of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” that along with Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis have harried Israel since Oct. 7.
Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.
The sources did not specify what form such support could take.
Regional
Trump rejects Iran’s response to US peace proposal as ‘unacceptable’
President Donald Trump’s swift rejection of Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal sent oil prices surging higher on Monday amid concerns the 10-week-old conflict will drag on, keeping shipping through the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed.
Days after the U.S. floated an offer in the hopes of re-opening negotiations, Iran on Sunday released a response focused on ending the war on all fronts, especially Lebanon, where U.S. ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also included a demand for compensation for war damages and emphasized Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state TV said, Reuters reported.
It also called on the U.S. to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and end a U.S. ban on Iranian oil sales, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said.
Within hours, Trump dismissed Iran’s proposal with a post on social media.
“I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, without giving further detail.
The U.S. had proposed an end to fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.
Oil prices jumped $3 a barrel on Monday following news of the continued stalemate that leaves the narrow Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Before the war the waterway carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and has emerged as one of the central pressure points in the war.
Surveys show the war is unpopular with U.S. voters facing sharply higher gasoline prices less than six months before nationwide elections that will determine whether Trump’s Republican party retains control of Congress.
The U.S. has also found little international support, with NATO allies refusing calls to send ships to open the Strait of Hormuz without a full peace deal and an internationally mandated mission.
It’s not clear what fresh diplomatic or military steps may be ahead.
Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday. With mounting pressure to draw a line under the war and the global energy crisis it has ignited, Iran is among topics Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to discuss.
Trump has been leaning on China to use its influence to push Tehran to make a deal with Washington.
Addressing whether combat operations against Iran were over, Trump said in remarks aired on Sunday: “They are defeated, but that doesn’t mean they’re done.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war was not over because there was “more work to be done” to remove enriched uranium from Iran, dismantle enrichment sites and address Iran’s proxies and ballistic missile capabilities.
The best way to remove the enriched uranium would be through diplomacy, Netanyahu said in an interview that aired Sunday on CBS News’ “60 Minutes.” But he did not rule out removing it by force.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a social media post that Iran would “never bow down to the enemy” and would “defend national interests with strength.”
Despite diplomatic efforts to break a deadlock, the threat to shipping lanes and the economies of the region remained high.
Recent days have seen the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the strait since a ceasefire began.
On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates said it intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar condemned a drone attack that hit a cargo ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters. Kuwait said its air defences had dealt with hostile drones that entered its airspace.
Clashes have also continued in southern Lebanon between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced on April 16.
An end to hostilities with Iran would not necessarily bring an end to the war in Lebanon, Netanyahu said in the “60 Minutes” interview, in which he also said Israeli planners had underestimated Iran’s ability to choke off traffic through the Hormuz Strait.
“It took a while for them to understand how big that risk is, which they understand now,” he said.
Regional
Fourteen Pakistani police officers killed in KP car bombing and shootout
The death toll from a suicide attack on a security post in northwest Pakistan rose to 14 police officers, authorities said early Sunday.
A suicide bomber and several gunmen detonated an explosives-laden vehicle near the post in Bannu, a district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, late Saturday, said senior police official Sajjad Khan. The attack triggered an intense shootout, and some officers were killed in the exchange, while others died later after the building collapsed, the Associated Press reported.
Rescuers conducted an hourslong search operation using heavy machinery to retrieve bodies from under the rubble, Khan said, adding that three police officers were wounded in the attack.
Security forces have also launched an operation to track down the perpetrators.
A newly formed militant group, Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.
Regional
UAE countering Iranian air attack after Trump says ceasefire still in effect
U.S. ally the United Arab Emirates said its air defences were engaging missile and drone threats from Iran early on Friday in a further test of the shaky, month-long ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
There were few details immediately available about the latest attack on the UAE, which came a day after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire around the Strait of Hormuz, and as Washington awaited a response from Tehran to its proposal to end the conflict. Iran has often targeted the UAE and other Gulf countries that host U.S. bases since the war began on February 28, Reuters reported.
President Donald Trump said on Thursday three U.S. Navy destroyers were attacked as they moved through the strait, a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows that Iran has all but closed since the conflict started.
“Three World Class American Destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire. There was no damage done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump later told reporters the ceasefire was still in effect and sought to play down the exchange.
“They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” Trump said in Washington.
Iran’s top joint military command accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship, and of carrying out air attacks on civilian areas on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and the nearby coastal areas of Bandar Khamir and Sirik on the mainland. The military said it responded by attacking U.S. military vessels east of the strait and south of the port of Chabahar.
A spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the Iranian strikes inflicted “significant damage,” but U.S. Central Command said none of its assets were hit.
Iran’s Press TV later reported that, following several hours of fire, “the situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal now.”
The two sides have occasionally exchanged gunfire since the ceasefire took effect on April 7, with Iran hitting targets in Gulf countries including the UAE.
Oil prices rose in early trade in Asia on Friday, with Brent crude jumping above $100 a barrel after the latest clashes between the U.S. and Iran.
TRUMP URGES NEGOTIATED END TO WAR
Trump suggested ongoing talks with Tehran remained on track despite Thursday’s hostilities, telling reporters, “We’re negotiating with the Iranians.”
Before the latest strikes, the U.S. had floated a proposal that would formally end the conflict but did not address key U.S. demands that Iran suspend its nuclear work and reopen the strait.
Tehran said it had not yet reached a decision on the emerging plan.
Even so, Trump said Tehran had acknowledged his demand that Iran could never get a nuclear weapon, a prohibition he said was spelled out in the U.S. proposal.
“There’s zero chance. And they know that, and they’ve agreed to that. Let’s see if they are willing to sign it,” Trump said.
Asked when any deal might be reached, Trump said, “It might not happen, but it could happen any day. I believe they want to deal more than I do.”
The war has tested Trump’s relationship with his U.S. base of supporters, after he had campaigned against involving the United States in foreign wars and promised to bring down fuel prices.
Average U.S. gasoline prices have climbed more than 40% since late February, rising by about $1.20 a gallon to more than $4, according to data from the American Automobile Association, as disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher.
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