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US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse: report

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U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Reuters reported citing three ​sources familiar with the matter.

A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” ‌said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings.

The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion ​of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Israeli officials in closed discussions also ​have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

The sources stressed that ⁠the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The ​White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

SHIFTING OBJECTIVES

Since launching their war, the U.S. and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and ​members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the U.S. operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that ​controls large parts of the economy.

Still, the U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.

The Assembly ​of Experts, a group of senior Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a ‌fourth source ⁠familiar with the matter.

It is unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.

It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran.

INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS KURDS LACK FIREPOWER TO FIGHT IRAN

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services ​there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the ​government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the ⁠Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive ​U.S. support.

Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases ​and barracks out of fear ⁠of U.S. and Israeli strikes.

“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.

But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs ⁠the autonomous region ​of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for ​comment.

The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers for the U.S. to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.

But Trump said on Saturday ​that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.

World

US, Iran teams in Pakistan for peace talks amid doubts over Lebanon, sanctions

The Iranian delegation, led by parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, arrived on Friday.

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Senior U.S. and Iranian leaders were in the Pakistani capital Islamabad on Saturday for negotiations to end their six-week-old war, although Tehran threw the talks into doubt by saying they could not begin without commitments on Lebanon and sanctions, Reuters reported.

The U.S. delegation, led by ​Vice President JD Vance and including President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, landed in two U.S. Air Force planes at an air base in Islamabad on Saturday morning, where ‌they were received by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.

The Iranian delegation, led by parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, arrived on Friday.

These will be the highest-level U.S.-Iran talks since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. If the two sides hold face-to-face negotiations as expected, they would be first direct talks since 2015, when they reached a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Trump scrapped the nuclear deal in 2018 during his first term in office. That year, Iran’s then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who was killed at the start ​of the war six weeks ago – banned further direct talks between U.S. and Iranian officials.

Qalibaf said on X that Washington had previously agreed to unblock Iranian assets and to a ceasefire in Lebanon, ​where Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have killed nearly 2,000 people since the start of the fighting in March. He said talks would not start until those pledges were ⁠fulfilled.

Israel and the U.S. have said the Lebanon campaign is not part of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire.

Iran’s state broadcaster said the Iranian delegation would meet Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif around noon (0700 GMT) to determine the timing and manner of “possible negotiations”.

Qalibaf said ​Iran was ready to reach a deal if Washington offered what he described as a genuine agreement and granted Iran its rights, Iranian state media reported.

The White House did not immediately comment on the Iranian demands, but Trump posted on social media ​that the only reason the Iranians were alive was to negotiate a deal.

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” he said.

Vance, speaking as he headed to Pakistan, said he expected a positive outcome but added: “If they’re going to try to play us, then they’re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

Preliminary discussions have been separately held by Pakistani officials with advance teams from both sides, sources ​in Islamabad said.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said these included 70 members from Tehran, including technical specialists in economic, security and political fields as well as media personnel and support staff. About 100 members of an advance U.S. team were in the ​city, a Pakistani government source said.

Pakistan’s Dar said he hoped the U.S. and Iran would engage in constructive talks to reach a “lasting and durable solution to the conflict”, according to a statement from Pakistan’s foreign ministry.

A Pakistani source said it was too early to say ‌whether talks would ⁠end on Saturday, adding there was no time limit for negotiations.

Islamabad was under an unprecedented lockdown ahead of the talks with thousands of paramilitary personnel and army troops on the streets, read the report.

Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in the war on Tuesday, which has halted U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran.

But it has not ended Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the biggest-ever disruption to global energy supplies, or calmed the parallel war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israeli and Lebanese officials will hold talks in Washington on Tuesday, both sides said, amid conflicting accounts on what those talks would cover.

Lebanon’s presidency said officials from the two countries had spoken by phone on Friday and agreed to discuss announcing a ceasefire and ​setting a start date for bilateral talks under U.S. mediation. ​But Israel’s embassy in Washington said the talks would ⁠constitute the start of “formal peace negotiations” and that Israel had refused to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

Tehran’s agenda at the Islamabad talks also includes demands for major new concessions, including the end of sanctions that crippled its economy for years, and acknowledgment of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, where it aims to collect transit fees and control access in what would amount ​to a huge shift in regional power.

Iran’s ships were sailing through the strait unimpeded on Friday, while those of other countries remained hemmed inside.

Disruption to energy supplies has fed inflation ​and slowed the global economy, with ⁠an impact expected to last for months even if negotiators succeed in reopening the strait.

The hard line taken by Iran’s leaders ahead of the negotiations followed a defiant message from its new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, on Thursday.

Khamenei, yet to be seen in public and said to be suffering from severe facial and leg injuries sustained in the attack that killed his father, said Iran would demand compensation for all wartime damage. “We will certainly not leave unpunished the criminal aggressors who attacked our country,” he said.

Although Trump has ⁠declared victory and ​degraded Iran’s military capabilities, the war has not achieved many of the aims he set out at the start: to deprive Iran of the ability ​to strike its neighbours, dismantle its nuclear programme and make it easier for its people to overthrow their government, Reuters reported.

Iran still possesses missiles and drones capable of hitting its neighbours and a stockpile of more than 400 kg (900 pounds) of uranium enriched near the level needed to make a bomb. Its clerical ​rulers, who faced a popular uprising just months ago, withstood the war with no sign of organised opposition.

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Vance warns Iran not to “play us” as he leaves for talks

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Vice ​President JD Vance said ‌on Friday he was looking forward to having positive negotiations ​with Iran as he ​left for talks in Pakistan ⁠with a warning to ​Tehran not to “play us.”

“We’re ​looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s going to be ​positive,” Vance told ​reporters before leaving Washington.

“As the president ‌of ⁠the United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good ​faith, ​we’re ⁠certainly willing to extend the open hand,” ​Vance said. “If they’re ​going ⁠to try to play us, then they’re going to ⁠find ​the negotiating ​team is not that receptive.”

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Russian special envoy Dmitriev in US, meeting Trump administration members, sources say

The visit comes before the ​U.S. decision on whether to extend ​sanctions relief on Russian oil, which expires on April 11 and could also be on the agenda.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev ​is currently in the U.S. and ‌is meeting members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for discussions on a peace ​deal for Ukraine and U.S.-Russia economic ​cooperation, sources with knowledge of the visit ⁠told Reuters.

The visit comes before the ​U.S. decision on whether to extend ​sanctions relief on Russian oil, which expires on April 11 and could also be on the agenda.

The United ​States issued a 30-day waiver for countries ​to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products currently ‌stranded ⁠at sea, in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by ​Iran war.

The ​sanctions relief ⁠took place after a call between Trump and Putin on ​March 9 and a subsequent ​visit ⁠to the U.S. by Dmitriev to discuss the energy crisis with a U.S. delegation ⁠that ​included Trump’s special envoy ​Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

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