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US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse: report

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U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Reuters reported citing three ​sources familiar with the matter.

A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” ‌said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings.

The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion ​of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Israeli officials in closed discussions also ​have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

The sources stressed that ⁠the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The ​White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

SHIFTING OBJECTIVES

Since launching their war, the U.S. and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and ​members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the U.S. operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that ​controls large parts of the economy.

Still, the U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.

The Assembly ​of Experts, a group of senior Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a ‌fourth source ⁠familiar with the matter.

It is unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.

It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran.

INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS KURDS LACK FIREPOWER TO FIGHT IRAN

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services ​there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the ​government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the ⁠Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive ​U.S. support.

Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases ​and barracks out of fear ⁠of U.S. and Israeli strikes.

“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.

But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs ⁠the autonomous region ​of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for ​comment.

The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers for the U.S. to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.

But Trump said on Saturday ​that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.

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Trump envoy discusses Gaza plan with Netanyahu after rare Hamas meeting

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Donald Trump’s envoy and son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Israeli Prime Minister ‌Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Monday, a day after holding a rare meeting with Hamas’ leader in Cairo in a bid to push forward the U.S. president’s Gaza plan.

Netanyahu, whose ruling coalition is trailing in Israeli opinion polls ahead of an October national election, publicly rejected this month ​a U.S.-backed agreement that would see Hamas surrender its arms in exchange for Israel withdrawing from Gaza, Reuters reported.

Trump had ​said the agreement would be carried out in phases, with Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza as disarmament ⁠proceeded and an ‘International Stabilization Force’ worked with a new Palestinian police force to secure the territory.

But Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader, has ​said the country’s military will only withdraw once Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza have been completely disarmed. Diplomats say ​Israel is unlikely to make any major concessions over Gaza ahead of the October 27 election.

KUSHNER SEEKS TO PUSH AHEAD WITH STALLED GAZA PLAN

Kushner was joined in the Jerusalem meeting with Netanyahu by Nickolay Mladenov, Trump’s Board of Peace envoy for Gaza, the two ​sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Netanyahu’s office ​did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Mladenov, a former U.N. official with close ties to the United Arab Emirates, an ‌influential ⁠Middle Eastern state, helped broker last month’s disarmament agreement and is widely seen as leading efforts to implement Trump’s original 20-point plan to end the war, which Israel and Hamas agreed to last year.

However, there has so far been little progress, with Israel continuing to carry out strikes on Gaza despite agreeing to a ceasefire as part of Trump’s plan. ​Hamas last month agreed to ​a new U.S.-backed 15-point ⁠roadmap aimed at moving Trump’s plan forward. Israel rejected that roadmap.

Earlier, a source said Hamas leader Khalil Al-Hayya had been present at some of the meetings in Cairo on Sunday that mediators held ​with Kushner and Mladenov.

It marks Kushner’s second known meeting with representatives of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group designated a ​terrorist movement by ⁠the United States.

Kushner previously met Hamas officials alongside U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in October 2025, helping clinch a deal that led to a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of remaining hostages seized by Hamas in the October 7, 2023 attack on ⁠Israel.

Trump said ​in late July a deal had been reached for the complete disarmament of Hamas ​and other armed groups in Gaza. Hamas has said it agreed to the plan but the deal’s implementation would depend on Israel first meeting its ​own commitments, including withdrawal and halting attacks.

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Trump wants more economic pressure on Iran

The United States could continue targeting Iranian individuals and ‌entities, as well ⁠as others in China and the Gulf, that are helping Tehran evade sanctions to collect revenues for its war effort.

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U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday vowed to hit Iran hard economically, a day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington would impose measures on Tehran that have “never been seen” as soon as next week, Reuters reported.

The United States, United Nations and European Union have applied sanctions, implemented trade embargoes and frozen assets since the late 1970s over ​Iran’s nuclear program, human rights violations and support for militant groups.

Since the Iran war began in February, Washington has levied additional maritime, energy and financial sanctions ‌and started a naval blockade.

Data from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) shows the agency has imposed sanctions on more than 1,000 people, vessels and aircraft since Trump began his second term.

Recent measures have targeted Iran’s shadow oil fleet; shipping insurers; entities and people enabling Iran’s acquisition of weapons; and digital exchanges, freezing an estimated $500 billion in Iran-linked cryptocurrency.

Chinese independent refineries known as “teapots” account for a quarter of Chinese refinery capacity. They operate with narrow and sometimes negative profit margins.

China buys more than 80% of Iran’s ​shipped oil, according to 2025 data from analytics firm Kpler. Independent refiners absorb much of this trade, exposing them to so-called secondary measures ⁠that penalize entities helping a primary sanctions target.

Past U.S. sanctions have deterred larger independent refiners from buying Iranian oil. But the independent refineries are somewhat immune since they have little exposure ​to the U.S. financial system, sanctions experts say.

OFAC has imposed secondary sanctions on smaller China- and Hong Kong-based entities accused of processing billions of dollars in Iranian oil and ​helping to fund weapons procurement.

Treasury has warned two larger Chinese banks they could face secondary sanctions if Iranian funds were found moving through their systems, but has stopped short of designating them.

Hitting those two banks, which U.S. officials have not publicly identified, or imposing other sanctions could have a chilling effect on bigger financial institutions, sanctions experts said, although they warned it could also trigger retaliatory actions by Beijing, read the report.

Trump administration officials have ​sought to play down tensions between Washington and Beijing ahead of an expected meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping later this year. They worry that China could curtail exports of ​critical minerals that are essential to advanced technology production at a time when the U.S. and Western allies are still trying to develop their own supplies.

The United States could continue targeting Iranian individuals and ‌entities, as well ⁠as others in China and the Gulf, that are helping Tehran evade sanctions to collect revenues for its war effort.

Treasury recently issued sanctions against firms that are springing up to facilitate Iran’s trading of oil revenue for imports. But such measures amount to a “whack-a-mole” approach that has not altered Iran’s behavior, said Brett Erickson, managing principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors, noting that Tehran simply creates new entities to replace them.

Miad Maleki, a sanctions expert with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Bessent was likely signaling a sharpened enforcement push against oil shippers, purchasers and currency ​exchangers who help Iran pay for its ​imports.

Further aviation sanctions were also possible, aimed ⁠at degrading Iran’s ability to move trade now that the U.S. has blockaded shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, he added.

Some U.S. and Israeli officials have floated the prospect of a land blockade, which would require assistance from Iran’s neighbors: Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan ​and Armenia.

The Trump administration has varying degrees of closeness with all those countries except Afghanistan, but that border is mountainous and extremely difficult ​to patrol anyway.

Trump may ⁠have leverage over Pakistan, which recently sought a $10 billion currency swap line from Treasury, and Turkey, which is seeking to rejoin the U.S. F-35 warplane program.

A land blockade could increase pressure on the Iranian people by halting their imports of food, energy and textiles, but experts say such a move would be difficult to execute and might not result in protests or internal pressure, Reuters reported.

Trump has repeatedly ⁠threatened tariffs on ​goods from countries that do business with Iran, although the Supreme Court struck down the legal basis for ​such taxes.

The Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill last week that included new Iran sanctions and would give Trump new tariff powers that he could potentially use against countries that aid Iran’s commerce and weapons procurement.

That legislation must ​still pass the U.S. House of Representatives, which could prove challenging given widespread concerns among Democrats and some Republicans about the tariff measures.

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Lebanon says Israeli strikes in south of the country kill at least 11​​​

Iran-backed Hezbollah said in a statement that the attacks would be “met with what they deserve”.

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At least 11 people were killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon on Saturday, the Lebanese ‌health ministry said, some of the deadliest in the weeks since the country agreed to a U.S.-mediated peace framework with neighbouring Israel, Reuters reported.

The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah infrastructure overnight in what it describes as a security zone in southern Lebanon in response to actions against its soldiers there.

Iran-backed Hezbollah said in a statement that the attacks would be “met with what they deserve”.

The framework leaves ​Israeli troops inside occupied southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese army takes control, terms the group has rejected as surrender.

Lebanon’s official National News ​Agency said seven people were killed when Israeli warplanes struck a house in the southern village of Ansar, while four others ⁠were killed in a strike on the village of Deir El Zahrani.

The seven people killed in Ansar included three children and two women, NNA said, adding that ​a total of 19 people were wounded in the attacks.

At least 4,300 people have been killed in Lebanon in the latest round of hostilities since March 2.

NNA also reported ​other airstrikes across southern Lebanon, including on a strategic area north of the Litani River known as Ali al-Taher hill. One, targeting a valley next to Ansar, was the deepest strike into Lebanon in two months.

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a statement on X, accused Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire and attacking Israeli soldiers leading to three injuries, read the report.

“The IDF (Israel Defense ​Forces) responded by striking the Hezbollah terror headquarters which ordered the attack,” the statement said. “Only later did the IDF learn that Hezbollah deliberately put civilians in that ​military compound.”

The Israeli military said in a statement it killed Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, a commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force unit and others when it struck “a central headquarters of the ‌Radwan Force unit,” ⁠in Ansar.

“At the time of the strike, Hassan’s family was also present with him inside the military headquarters and, according to the claim, was harmed in the strike,” the statement added, emphasising that the family was not the target of the strike.

“The martyrs of the Israeli raid on the village of Ansar are not ‘military infrastructure’ and the women and children killed in it are not military targets,” Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said in a post on X.

Nabih Berri, the speaker ​of Lebanon’s parliament, who is a Hezbollah ​ally, called in a statement for ⁠national unity and for the sponsors of the peace talks and ceasefire agreements to assume responsibility for stopping the war before it was too late.

Israel’s military seized a swathe of southern Lebanon during its war with Hezbollah earlier this year, triggered after ​the group fired at Israel two days into the Iran war. Israel has said it will keep its forces there to ​protect the north of ⁠the country from further attacks.

During a visit to southern Lebanon on Thursday, Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israel would not withdraw from areas under its control until Hezbollah was disarmed. A U.S. State Department official said a permanent Israeli military presence there was not consistent with commitments set out in the deal, Reuters reported.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, in a statement on X, said ⁠the attacks ​were a “clear message” aimed at the negotiations and U.S. efforts towards implementing the framework agreement.

Doron Spielman, international ​spokesperson for the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, told Reuters Saturday’s strikes would “tighten up” negotiations.

“I think it should make the negotiations more serious and more real, because it highlights the whole reason we got into ​these negotiations in the first place,” he added.

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