World

US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse: report

Published

2 months ago

March 12, 2026

U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Reuters reported citing three sources familiar with the matter.

A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” ‌said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings.

The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Israeli officials in closed discussions also have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

The sources stressed that ⁠the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

SHIFTING OBJECTIVES

Since launching their war, the U.S. and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the U.S. operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls large parts of the economy.

Still, the U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.

The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a ‌fourth source ⁠familiar with the matter.

It is unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.

It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran.

INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS KURDS LACK FIREPOWER TO FIGHT IRAN

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the ⁠Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive U.S. support.

Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear ⁠of U.S. and Israeli strikes.

“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.

But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs ⁠the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers for the U.S. to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.

But Trump said on Saturday that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.

Related Topics:featured Iran Iran war israel US

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Americans don’t think Trump has explained Iran war goals, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows

The Reuters/Ipsos poll had a 3-percentage-point margin of error in either direction based on the number of people surveyed.

Published

17 hours ago

May 12, 2026

Ariana News

Two out of three Americans think President Donald Trump has not clearly explained why the country went ‌to war with Iran, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday that also showed his approval rating ticking up from the lowest level of his term.

The four-day poll revealed deep concerns about surging gasoline prices, and also suggested many voters are casting blame for their troubles on Trump’s Republican allies who will be defending their congressional majorities in the November midterm elections.

More than two months into a conflict that began February 28 with a U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, some 66% of poll respondents – including one in three Republicans and almost all Democrats – said Trump has not “clearly explained the goals of U.S. ⁠military involvement in Iran.”

The war, which cooled in recent weeks as both sides floated peace proposals, has driven a roughly 50% increase in gasoline prices across the country. Iran shut down a fifth of the global oil trade by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz – despite efforts by U.S. warships to re-open the waterway for oil tankers.

Some 63% of the country say their household’s personal financial situation has taken a hit from recent gas price increases, up from 55% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 17-19.

Some 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance, up two percentage points since a late April Reuters/Ipsos poll showed his approval rating at 34%, which was the lowest level of Trump’s current term in office.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll had a 3-percentage-point margin of error in either direction based on the number of people surveyed.

Trump’s popularity remains below the 40% approval rate he had just before the war started. He started his term ‌in January ⁠2025 with 47% approval after winning the 2024 presidential election on promises to lower costs for Americans.

Three-quarters of the public – including half of Republicans – think his administration bears at least a fair amount of responsibility for the gas price surge, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed. Asked which political party is more responsible, 65% of poll respondents said Republicans were to blame compared to 27% who said Democrats.

Four out of five Americans said they expect gas prices to rise further.

Republicans are defending narrow majorities in the ⁠U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterms. Their hopes of keeping control of the House have been bolstered by recent court rulings that could lead to voting district boundaries that are more favorable to Republicans. Republican strategists say the party’s chances would further improve if gasoline prices came down.

But with no agreement in sight between ⁠Washington and Tehran, about three in 10 Americans already expect to cut back on summer vacation plans if gas prices hold firm, the poll found. Many expect to cancel their trips or travel shorter distances.

Trump has repeatedly promised gas prices will fall when the war ends, though analysts warn that is unlikely to happen ⁠quickly. The public isn’t sure who has the upper hand in the conflict. Only one in three say America has the advantage, while about one in seven say Iran has it, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed. The rest said they weren’t sure or that neither side has an advantage.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online and gathered responses from 1,254 U.S. adults nationwide.

World

Israel built and defended a secret base in Iraq for Iran war, WSJ reports

Published

3 days ago

May 10, 2026

Ariana News

Israel established a covert military installation in the Iraqi desert to support its air operations against Iran, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, citing individuals familiar with the matter, including U.S. officials.

The report said the facility was used as a logistical hub for the Israeli Air Force and also housed special forces, as well as search-and-rescue units prepared to assist any downed pilots during operations.

According to the newspaper, the base was built with the knowledge of the United States shortly before the onset of what it described as a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

The report added that Israeli forces conducted airstrikes against Iraqi troops on at least one occasion after they allegedly came close to discovering the site, in order to prevent exposure of the facility.

The existence of the installation reportedly came under threat in early March, when Iraqi state media said a shepherd had alerted authorities to unusual military activity in the area, including helicopter movements. Iraqi forces were subsequently dispatched to investigate.

The Wall Street Journal further reported that Iraqi troops were struck by Israeli air operations while approaching the area, based on accounts from sources familiar with the incident.

Later in March, Iraq submitted a complaint to the United Nations alleging that foreign forces were involved in attacks in the area and initially attributed responsibility to the United States. However, the report cited a source familiar with the matter as saying the U.S. was not involved.

World

Trump releases government UFO files, more expected

Published

4 days ago

May 9, 2026

Ariana News

At the order of U.S. President Donald Trump, the Defense Department on Friday released dozens of previously classified files on alleged UFO sightings to provide what ‌it called “unprecedented transparency” to the American people, though analysts said many of the documents had already been made public.

The disclosure of documents, photos and videos of “unidentified anomalous phenomena” will be followed by future releases as more materials are declassified, the Defense Department said in a statement, Reuters reported.

Trump was the latest president to release U.S. government reports on UFOs, a disclosure process that began in the late 1970s. Experts said the batch of around 160 files released on Friday contained new videos of known sightings but gave no conclusive evidence of alien technology or extraterrestrial life.

The files include a 1947 report of “flying discs” as well as grainy photos of “unidentified phenomena” taken from the moon’s surface by the 1969 Apollo 12 lunar mission and a transcript of the Apollo 17 crew describing unidentified objects seen from the moon in 1972.

‘BRIGHT PARTICLES’ DURING APOLLO 17

Apollo 17 mission pilot Ronald Evans reported “a few very bright particles or fragments or something that go drifting by as we maneuver,” based on the transcript.

“Roger. Understand,” mission control replied.

“These files, hidden behind classifications, have long fueled justified speculation – and it’s time the American people see it for themselves,” Hegseth said in a statement.

The records release is likely to fuel fresh debate over government secrecy and the possible existence of life in the cosmos.

“Whereas previous Administrations have failed to be transparent on this subject, with these new Documents and Videos, the people can decide for themselves, “WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?” Trump said in a statement. “Have fun and enjoy!”

The move was welcomed by U.S. Representatives Tim Burchett and ‌Anna Paulina ⁠Luna, both proponents of declassifying UFO files. Luna said an additional tranche of material was expected in about 30 days.

“The files show that UAP are not simply a matter of speculation or public curiosity,” Harvard University astrophysicist Avi Loeb said in an email to Reuters. “The government has collected records.”

The images from Apollo 12 and 17 were fascinating but could be the result of asteroid impacts on the lunar surface, Loeb said.

DISTRACTION FROM POLITICAL PROBLEMS?

Some critics cast the UFO disclosures as a distraction from Trump’s political woes, including ⁠the unpopular U.S. military campaign against Iran and public pressure to release further files tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

“I really don’t care about the UFO files. I just don’t. I’m so sick of the ‘look at the shiny object’ propaganda,” former Republican U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote on X.

UAP investigator Mick West said the administration of former President ⁠Joe Biden disclosed much of the same information as Friday’s release.

“They’re evidence of us not being able to identify a small white dot that’s a long distance away,” the Sacramento, California-based analyst said of the new UAP videos and images.

Independent journalist Leslie Kean said the release showed there was still a lot ⁠of government information on UAP that should be disclosed. Kean co-authored a 2017 New York Times story on a secret Pentagon UAP program, which prompted Congress to push for declassification of UFO documents.

“I think we’ve already proven the existence of UAP, but that doesn’t mean we’ve proven they’re alien or extraterrestrial or that we know what they are,” said Kean.