World
US researchers find probable launch site of Russia’s new nuclear-powered missile
A Kremlin spokesman said these were questions for the defence ministry and declined further comment.
Two U.S. researchers say they have identified the probable deployment site in Russia of the 9M370 Burevestnik, a new nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile touted by President Vladimir Putin as "invincible."
Putin has said the weapon - dubbed the SSC-X-9 Skyfall by NATO - has an almost unlimited range and can evade U.S. missile defenses. But some Western experts dispute his claims and the Burevestnik's strategic value, saying it will not add capabilities that Moscow does not already have and risks a radiation-spewing mishap.
Using images taken on July 26 by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, the two researchers identified a construction project abutting a nuclear warhead storage facility known by two names - Vologda-20 and Chebsara - as the new missile's potential deployment site. The facility is 295 miles (475 km) north of Moscow.
Reuters is the first to report this development.
Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the CNA research and analysis organization, found the satellite imagery and identified what he assessed are nine horizontal launch pads under construction. They are located in three groups inside high berms to shield them from attack or to prevent an accidental blast in one from detonating missiles in the others, he said.
The berms are linked by roads to what Eveleth concluded are likely buildings where the missiles and their components would be serviced, and to the existing complex of five nuclear warhead storage bunkers.
The site is "for a large, fixed missile system and the only large, fixed missile system that they're (Russia) currently developing is the Skyfall," said Eveleth.
Russia's defense ministry and Washington embassy did not respond to a request to comment on his assessment, Burevestnik's strategic value, its test record and the risks it poses.
A Kremlin spokesman said these were questions for the defence ministry and declined further comment.
The U.S. State Department, the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the U.S. Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center declined to comment.
The identification of the missile's probable launch site suggests that Russia is proceeding with its deployment after a series of tests in recent years marred by problems, said Eveleth and the second researcher, Jeffery Lewis, of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
Lewis agreed with Eveleth's assessment after reviewing the imagery at his request. The imagery "suggests something very unique, very different. And obviously, we know that Russia is developing this nuclear-powered missile," he said.
Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, who also studied the Vologda imagery at Eveleth's request, said that it appears to show launch pads and other features "possibly" related to Burevestnik. But he said he could not make a definitive assessment because Moscow does not typically place missile launchers next to nuclear warhead storage.
Eveleth, Lewis, Kristensen and three other experts said Moscow's normal practice has been stockpiling nuclear payloads for land-based missiles far from launch sites - except for those on its deployed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) force.
But deploying the Burevestnik at Vologda would allow the Russian military to stockpile the nuclear-armed missiles in its bunkers, making them available to launch quickly, said Lewis and Eveleth.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia will make changes to its guidelines on the use of nuclear weapons in response to what it regards as Western escalation in the war in Ukraine, state news agency TASS reported on Sunday.
POOR TEST RECORD
A 2020 report by the United States Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center said that if Russia successfully brought the Burevestnik into service, it would give Moscow a "unique weapon with intercontinental-range capability".
But the weapon's checkered past and design limitations raised doubts among eight experts interviewed by Reuters about whether its deployment would change the nuclear stakes for the West and other Russian foes.
The Burevestnik has a poor test record of at least 13 known tests, with only two partial successes, since 2016, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), an advocacy group focused on reducing nuclear, biological and emergent technology risks.
The setbacks include a 2019 blast during the botched recovery of an unshielded nuclear reactor allowed to "smolder" on the White Sea floor for a year following a prototype crash, according to State Department.
Russia's state nuclear agency Rosatom said five staff members died during the testing of a rocket on Aug. 8. Putin presented their widows with top state awards, saying the weapon they were developing was without equal in the world, without naming the Burevestnik.
Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russia's nuclear forces, Lewis, Eveleth, and other experts said it will not add capabilities that Moscow's nuclear forces already do not have, including the ability to overwhelm U.S. missile defenses.
Moreover, its nuclear-powered engine threatens to disgorge radiation along its flight path and its deployment risks an accident that could contaminate the surrounding region, said Cheryl Rofer, a former U.S. nuclear weapons scientist and other experts.
"The Skyfall is a uniquely stupid weapon system, a flying Chernobyl that poses more threat to Russia than it does to other countries," agreed Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department official with the Arms Control Association, referring to the 1986 nuclear plant disaster.
NATO did not respond to questions about how the alliance would respond to the weapon's deployment.
Little publicly is known about the Burevestnik's technical details.
Experts assess that it would be sent aloft by a small solid-fuel rocket to drive air into an engine containing a miniature nuclear reactor. Superheated and possibly radioactive air would be blasted out, providing forward thrust.
Putin unveiled it in March 2018, saying the missile would be "low flying," with nearly unlimited range, an unpredictable flight path and "invincible" to current and future defenses.
Many experts are skeptical of Putin's claims.
The Burevestnik, they say, could have a range of some 15,000 miles (23,000 km) - compared to more than 11,000 miles (17,700 km) for the Sarmat, Russia's newest ICBM - while its subsonic speed would make it detectable.
"It’s going to be as vulnerable as any cruise missile," said Kristensen. "The longer it flies, the more vulnerable it becomes because there is more time to track it. I don't understand Putin's motive here."
The Burevestnik's deployment is not banned by New START, the last U.S.-Russian accord limiting strategic nuclear weapon deployments, which expires in February 2026.
A provision allows Washington to request negotiations with Moscow on bringing the Burevestnik under the caps but a State Department spokesperson said no such talks had been sought.
Citing the war in Ukraine, Russia has spurned U.S. calls for unconditional talks on replacing New START, stoking fears of an all-out nuclear arms race when it expires.
Podvig said Moscow might use the missile as a bargaining chip if talks ever resume.
He called the Burevestnik a "political weapon" that Putin used to bolster his strongman image before his 2018 re-election and to telegraph to Washington that it cannot dismiss his concerns over U.S. missile defenses and other issues.
World
Ukraine’s Zelenskiy says ‘victory plan’ is ready
Zelenskiy has rejected any notion of negotiations while Russian troops occupy nearly 20% of the country’s territory.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that his "Victory Plan", intended to bring peace to Ukraine while keeping the country strong and avoiding all "frozen conflicts", was now complete after much consultation, Reuters reported.
Zelenskiy pledged last month to present his plan to U.S. President Joe Biden, presumably next week when he attends sessions of the U.N. Security Council and General Assembly.
While providing daily updates on the plan's preparation, Zelenskiy has given few clues of the contents, indicating only that it aims to create terms acceptable to Ukraine, now locked in conflict with Russia for more than 2-1/2 years.
"Today, it can be said that our victory plan is fully prepared. All the points, all key focus areas and all necessary detailed additions of the plan have been defined," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.
"The most important thing is the determination to implement it.
There was, Zelenskiy said, no alternative to peace, "no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage".
On Tuesday, the president said a meeting with top commanders had produced "good and strong content" in military terms, "precisely the kind that can significantly strengthen Ukraine".
Zelenskiy has used as the basis for negotiations a peace plan he presented in late 2022 calling for a withdrawal of all Russian troops, the restoration of Ukraine's post-Soviet borders and a means to bring Russia to account for its invasion, read the report.
The plan was the focal point of a "peace summit" hosted by Switzerland in June with participants pledging to convene a second summit later this year. Russia was not invited to the June summit and branded it as meaningless, though Ukraine and its allies say Moscow could attend the next gathering.
Zelenskiy has rejected any notion of negotiations while Russian troops occupy nearly 20% of the country's territory.
Russia has repeatedly said it is willing to negotiate, but rules out discussions while Ukrainian forces remain in its Kursk region after it launched an incursion into the area last month.
World
North Korea tests new ballistic missiles with super-large warhead, KCNA says
South Korea’s military said on Thursday two ballistic missiles landed in a mountainous area in the North’s northeast.
North Korea tested new tactical ballistic missiles using super-large warheads and modified cruise missiles on Wednesday as leader Kim Jong Un called for stronger conventional weapons and nuclear capabilities, state news agency KCNA reported.
The tests to improve weapons capabilities are required because of the grave threat posed by outside forces to the security of the country, Kim, who led the tests, was quoted as saying.
The account followed the firing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles on Wednesday reported by the South Korean military, which was the second time the North test-launched missiles in a week.
Last week, North Korea also unveiled a uranium enrichment facility, in its first such public report, Reuters reported.
Kim stressed "the need to continue to bolster up the nuclear force and have the strongest military technical capability and overwhelming offensive capability in the field of conventional weapons too," KCNA said.
Wednesday's tests involved the new tactical ballistic Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 missiles, KCNA said, indicating it was part of a series of short-range ballistic missiles it had been developing.
The missile was mounted with a 4.5-ton super-large conventional warhead, KCNA said.
North Korea's state media reported the tests of missiles with the same name in July, which was considered a partial success. On Thursday, state media released photographs of a projectile striking a target in a hilly area, read the report.
South Korea's military said on Thursday two ballistic missiles landed in a mountainous area in the North's northeast.
Such a missile launch test with an intention to hit an inland target is likely unprecedented, said Shin Seung-ki who is the head of research on North Korea's military at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul.
North Korea routinely test-launches missiles to drop in the sea or on an uninhabited island.
The particular missile with the Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 designation is still under development but Russia may want it soon if its performance and reliability can be guaranteed through further testing, Shin said.
"North Korea will want to shorten that time as much as possible," he said.
Kyiv officials and independent experts have said there were signs some of the missiles used by Russia in the war against Ukraine were North Korean-made, including some that were produced this year. Moscow and Pyongyang both deny any illicit arms trade or shipments.
The North's military also tested a strategic cruise missile that has been upgraded for combat use, KCNA said.
North Korea has criticized military drills by the South Korean and U.S. militaries, including a large-scale exercise conducted this summer, as preparations for war on the Korean peninsula.
The allies say the drills are defensive in nature and aimed at maintaining readiness against any North Korean aggression.
World
Sweden to pay migrants over $34,000 to return home
Sweden, which has been known for years for its welcoming policy toward migrants, plans to increase its cash offer of $978 to about $34,000 to those who voluntarily return home.
Last week, the Swedish government said it would raise the 10,000 krona ($978) per adult to 350,000 krona ($34,000) and simplify the process involved in applying for the grant.
The government said this is in a bid to create incentive for migrants to return home.
This increase is expected to come into effect in 2026.
Sweden is one of a number of European countries taking a harder stance on immigration.
Sweden, with a population of 10.6 million people, had more than 250,000 refugees in mid-2023.
One politician, Ludvig Aspling, said in an interview recently that only 70 people applied for the grant last year, and only one got it.
However, 16,000 migrants from Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East left Sweden voluntarily last year without the grant.
Addressing a press conference last week, Sweden’s migration Minister Johan Forssell described the new policy as a “paradigm shift” in the Nordic country which in 2015 opened its borders to 162,877 asylum seekers, mostly of Syrian, Afghan, and Iraqi descent as a “humanitarian superpower”.
According to AFP news agency a number of other European countries already have schemes that pay migrants to return to their home countries, with offers of around $2,000 in Germany, $2,800 in France, $1,400 in Norway and more than $15,000 in Denmark.
The move however by Sweden has sparked widespread condemnation in the country from Swedes who took to social media to voice their objections.
One social media user, named only user-cb3l said: “They (migrants) will take the money but never leave. It's too late for band aid solutions.”
Somali78 was quite upfront about what he would do and said:
“I will take it and I will never leave.”
Susann Leinonen said: “Now more people come to my country for the money and I have to work for more years.”
Featherface01 meanwhile said on social media that “they'll take that 34k, leave Sweden and show up in Britain a week later.”
Tehmudjinkhan2207 queried whether this was a good idea. He said: “I’m Swedish, I don’t understand why we need to throw money at every single person in the world. When you hand out free money, every single scammer in the world will come here to take advantage. Criminal gangs will find ways to abuse this easily.”
But Johnmash327 warned: “I'm in Africa, once our brothers hear this, you'll regret this bad idea i'm telling you.”
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