Business
Afghanistan’s economic collapse could prompt refugee crisis: IMF
Afghanistan’s economy is set to contract up to 30% this year and this is likely to further fuel a refugee crisis that will impact neighbouring countries, Turkey and Europe, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
With non-humanitarian aid halted and foreign assets largely frozen after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power in August, Afghanistan’s aid-reliant economy “faces severe fiscal and balance-of-payments crises”, it said in its regional economic outlook update.
“The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis.”
The IMF said the turmoil in Afghanistan was expected to generate important economic and security spillovers to the region and beyond and was “fueling a surge in Afghan refugees”, although it gave no estimates of potential numbers.
“A large influx of refugees could put a burden on public resources in refugee-hosting countries, fuel labor market pressures, and lead to social tensions, underscoring the need for assistance from the international community,” it said.
Assuming a million more Afghans flee their homeland and settle in other countries in a way that is proportional to the existing spread of Afghan refugees, the annual cost of hosting them would amount to $100 million in Tajikistan (1.3% of gross domestic product), about $300 million in Iran (0.03% of GDP) and more than $500 million in Pakistan (0.2% of GDP), the IMF said.
Tajikistan said last month it could not afford to take in large numbers of refugees unless it received international financial assistance.
Other Central Asian nations have also said they have no plans to host refugees.
Another channel through which Afghanistan’s economic troubles could affect its neighbours is trade.
“Exports to Afghanistan are macroeconomically and socially relevant for Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan,” the Fund said.
Afghanistan previously served as a source of cash dollars, through both legitimate and possibly illicit cross-border flows, due to its status as a beneficiary of large donor funds, but now even larger amounts of dollar banknotes could start flowing into the country due to its shortages, the IMF said.
The goods they are exchanged for are likely to raise new concerns over money laundering and the financing of terrorism, it added.
Business
Ariana Afghan Airlines increases Kabul-Delhi cargo flights
Ariana Afghan Airlines has increased cargo flights between Kabul and Delhi to facilitate the transportation of commercial goods and support Afghan traders.
In a statement issued Saturday, the airline said it will now operate two scheduled cargo flights daily on the Kabul-Delhi route, up from one flight per day previously.
The airline said Afghan traders and commercial companies can use the daily cargo services to transport their goods quickly, safely and reliably between Afghanistan and India.
Ariana Afghan Airlines said it is working to further expand and improve its air cargo services to support trade, meet the needs of Afghan traders and facilitate Afghanistan’s exports and imports.
Business
Afghanistan, Turkmenistan agree to establish joint road transport commission
The sides also agreed to establish a joint commission to address road transport issues and improve coordination.
Afghanistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to establish a joint commission on road transport and facilitate transit between the two countries following two days of talks in Herat.
Afghanistan’s Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation said the meeting brought together technical delegations from both countries to strengthen bilateral transport and transit cooperation.
The talks focused on easing visa procedures for Afghan and Turkmen drivers and traders, operationalising the Lapis Lazuli transit corridor and increasing the movement of transit vehicles between the two countries.
The sides also agreed to establish a joint commission to address road transport issues and improve coordination.
Representatives from Afghanistan’s ministries of foreign affairs, industry and commerce and the railway authority attended the talks, alongside the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation. Railway links, bilateral trade and wider transit cooperation were also discussed, with private-sector representatives expected to participate in future discussions.
The agreement comes as Turkmenistan works to strengthen its role as a regional transport and logistics hub, using its road, rail and Caspian Sea infrastructure to connect Central Asia with markets to the west and south.
A key part of that network is the International Seaport of Turkmenbashi, which links Turkmenistan with Azerbaijan and onward routes towards the South Caucasus and Europe.
Turkmenistan’s transport infrastructure also forms part of the wider Middle Corridor, or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, connecting China and Central Asia with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye before reaching European markets.
For Afghanistan, the Lapis Lazuli Corridor is particularly important. It connects Afghanistan through Turkmenistan and across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye, providing a potential route towards European markets.
Rail links such as the Herat-Torghundi line could further connect Afghanistan’s markets with Turkmenistan’s wider transport network.
The latest agreement puts road transport and transit facilitation at the centre of efforts by the two neighbours to expand trade and strengthen regional connectivity.
Business
TAPI gas deliveries to Afghanistan and Pakistan expected to begin in 2027
Turkmenistan regards TAPI as a key project for diversifying its gas exports and strengthening regional economic cooperation.
Turkmenistan expects natural gas supplies to Afghanistan and Pakistan through the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline to begin in 2027, according to the Turkmen Embassy in Islamabad.
Turkmen Ambassador Atajan Movlamov said construction of the strategically important Serhetabat-Herat section of the pipeline is expected to be completed by the end of this year.
Movlamov made the remarks during an Ambassadors’ Dinner hosted by the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Islamabad.
He said the implementation of TAPI and other regional energy projects could strengthen Pakistan’s energy security while creating new opportunities for industrial development and economic growth.
The planned 1,800-kilometre pipeline is designed to transport up to 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan’s giant Galkynysh gas field through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India.
Turkmenistan regards TAPI as a key project for diversifying its gas exports and strengthening regional economic cooperation.
The Galkynysh field, which is the main resource base for TAPI, is among the world’s largest gas fields, with estimated reserves of more than 27 trillion cubic metres.
The project has faced years of delays, but recent construction and developments in the regional energy sector have renewed attention to TAPI as a potential link between Central Asian gas resources and South Asian energy markets.
-
World5 days agoCNN, MS NOW and Politico sue Trump, challenging White House ban
-
Latest News3 days agoAriana Afghan Airlines ranks seventh among 45 Central Asian airlines
-
Latest News5 days agoUN reiterates call for respect for international law after Kunar airstrikes
-
Regional4 days agoUS and Iran hold first talks since June after Trump’s ‘annihilation’ threat
-
Latest News3 days agoSilk Road highway in Wakhan corridor now reaches the China border
-
Latest News5 days agoAfghan Official: Pakistan’s airstrikes will not go unanswered
-
Regional5 days agoG7 foreign ministers call on Iran to stop arming Houthis
-
Regional3 days agoIran airlines cancel flights as US sanctions hit
