Business
Afghanistan’s economic collapse could prompt refugee crisis: IMF
Afghanistan’s economy is set to contract up to 30% this year and this is likely to further fuel a refugee crisis that will impact neighbouring countries, Turkey and Europe, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
With non-humanitarian aid halted and foreign assets largely frozen after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power in August, Afghanistan’s aid-reliant economy “faces severe fiscal and balance-of-payments crises”, it said in its regional economic outlook update.
“The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis.”
The IMF said the turmoil in Afghanistan was expected to generate important economic and security spillovers to the region and beyond and was “fueling a surge in Afghan refugees”, although it gave no estimates of potential numbers.
“A large influx of refugees could put a burden on public resources in refugee-hosting countries, fuel labor market pressures, and lead to social tensions, underscoring the need for assistance from the international community,” it said.
Assuming a million more Afghans flee their homeland and settle in other countries in a way that is proportional to the existing spread of Afghan refugees, the annual cost of hosting them would amount to $100 million in Tajikistan (1.3% of gross domestic product), about $300 million in Iran (0.03% of GDP) and more than $500 million in Pakistan (0.2% of GDP), the IMF said.
Tajikistan said last month it could not afford to take in large numbers of refugees unless it received international financial assistance.
Other Central Asian nations have also said they have no plans to host refugees.
Another channel through which Afghanistan’s economic troubles could affect its neighbours is trade.
“Exports to Afghanistan are macroeconomically and socially relevant for Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan,” the Fund said.
Afghanistan previously served as a source of cash dollars, through both legitimate and possibly illicit cross-border flows, due to its status as a beneficiary of large donor funds, but now even larger amounts of dollar banknotes could start flowing into the country due to its shortages, the IMF said.
The goods they are exchanged for are likely to raise new concerns over money laundering and the financing of terrorism, it added.
Business
Trade bodies warn almost 11,000 Afghan transit containers stuck at Karachi port
SCCI officials urged authorities to separate trade from political tensions and immediately launch dialogue to restore commercial traffic between the two countries.
Trade bodies report that nearly 11,000 Afghan transit trade containers are stranded at Karachi port, while thousands more— including shipments of perishable goods—remain stuck at the Ghulam Khan, Spin Boldak, Kharlachi, and Torkham crossings between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Traders involved in Pakistan–Afghanistan bilateral and transit commerce say they have suffered billions of Pakistani rupees in losses as the prolonged border shutdown continues to stall the movement of goods. Perishable food items have already begun to spoil, compounding financial losses.
They also report a sharp drop in bilateral trade volumes. Exporters who were already issued Form-E certificates have been unable to dispatch consignments, with the closure now nearing two months.
Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI) President Junaid Altaf said trade—already limited—has deteriorated further due to the closure of crossings. He estimated losses of roughly $45 million since the Torkham closure began, adding that the halt is damaging for both economies and directly affecting families whose livelihoods depend on trade.
SCCI officials urged authorities to separate trade from political tensions and immediately launch dialogue to restore commercial traffic between the two countries.
In recent weeks, repeated closures of the Pakistan–Afghanistan crossing have also brought pharmaceutical exports to a halt, putting nearly $200 million worth of medicines at risk. Hundreds of trucks carrying antibiotics, insulin, vaccines, and cardiovascular drugs remain stuck at Torkham and Chaman, with temperature-sensitive supplies facing potential spoilage.
The Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (PPMA) warned that the disruption extends far beyond Afghanistan’s medicine supply. Afghanistan is Pakistan’s main overland route to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, and ongoing shutdowns are undermining key regional connectivity projects, including the Pakistan–Uzbekistan–Afghanistan railway.
Stakeholders are calling for urgent steps to reopen the crossings, warning that prolonged closures threaten not only pharmaceutical exports but Pakistan’s broader economic engagement across the region.
Business
Pakistan’s citrus export crisis deepens amid ongoing Afghanistan trade route closure
Afghanistan, which absorbs around 60% of Pakistan’s citrus exports, has remained closed to trade since mid-October.
Pakistan’s citrus sector is facing a worsening export crisis as the closure of the Afghanistan crossing continues to block access to its largest market.
Despite the start of the 2025 citrus season, exports are set to fall further from an already steep decline — dropping from $211 million in fiscal year 2021 to just $92.5 million in fiscal year 2025.
Afghanistan, which absorbs around 60% of Pakistan’s citrus exports, has remained closed to trade since mid-October.
This year alone, Pakistan shipped 153,683 tonnes of citrus to Afghanistan, while exports through the Afghan transit route also supply Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. With that corridor shut, exporters warn that the bulk of Pakistan’s kinnow harvest could go unsold.
A temporary policy exemption now allows citrus shipments to transit through Iran, but exporters say volumes to Central Asia and Russia cannot compensate for the loss of the Afghan market.
The crisis, however, goes deeper than the current crossing closure situation. Pakistan’s citrus industry continues to suffer from long-standing structural challenges — including reliance on the outdated, seeded kinnow variety that makes up over 90% of exports.
Climate change, rising pest pressure, shrinking yields, and declining A-grade fruit quality have all eroded competitiveness. Yields have fallen to about six tonnes per acre, and nearly half of kinnow processing units have closed.
Global competitors such as Egypt, China, Spain, Morocco, and Brazil have overtaken Pakistan by introducing new seedless, high-yielding varieties with longer harvest windows. As profits shrink, farmers are abandoning citrus orchards: the cultivated area has dropped 16% in the past five years.
Experts say Pakistan must urgently invest in developing seedless, climate-resilient varieties and strengthen existing research centres. At the same time, trade officials need to diversify export destinations by securing new sanitary and phytosanitary agreements to reduce dependence on a single market.
Without structural reforms and diversified access, Pakistan’s signature fruit risks losing its place in global markets — and its farmers risk losing their livelihoods.
Business
Afghanistan signs agreement with DP World to bolster ports infrastructure
The Ministry of Finance of Afghanistan and UAE-based DP World have signed an investment term sheet to modernize key commercial land ports, marking a significant step in enhancing the country’s trade infrastructure.
Abdullah Azzam, Head of the Economic Affairs Office at the Office of the Prime Minister, stated that the agreement opens the door for foreign investment and new contracts.
He said that that under this agreement, Afghanistan’s ports will be modernized and equipped with cutting-edge technology.
The agreement outlines the development of cargo handling facilities, port management systems, and operations using advanced equipment in line with international standards. Hairatan Port will be upgraded in the first phase, followed by Torkham Port in the second phase, with subsequent expansion to logistics corridors, economic zones, and other national projects.
DP World officials emphasized that the modernization of these ports will not only increase trade but also create new employment opportunities.
They highlighted Afghanistan’s strategic location as a vital link between Central and South Asia and pledged continued efforts to support the country’s economic growth.
Economic analysts believe the investment will boost trade efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance the country’s transit capacity. Modernizing the ports is also expected to attract further foreign investment and strengthen Afghanistan’s overall economy.
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